Kentucky Derby Odds 2012: Betting Guide to Favorites and Dark Horses
The 138th running of the Kentucky Derby offers one of the most wide open fields in recent memory.
Four horses, according to Sportsbook.com, currently have single-digit odds, but that will change by race day.
With 20 talented horses in the field, there is no telling what will happen when the horses leave the starting gate.
Playing this race won't be easy, but it is doable.
Here's a look at the favorites, the dark horses and the horses you can forget about.
Bodemeister and Union Rags are nearly neck and neck at this point at the head of the field.
Running out of the sixth and fourth posts respectively, Bodemeister is currently a 4-1 favorite while Union Rags is going off at 9-2.
The two weren't helped or hurt by their post positions any, and their prices may settle sooner than later.
Get in on them if you want, as they don't offer a great payout, but they are the favorites for a reason.
The Undefeated Gem
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The undefeated Gemologist gets a category all his own because this race offers an upgrade in challenge for the three-year-old colt.
He's won every race he's entered thus far, including two at Churchill Downs, and he's offering an intriguing price at 6-1.
Gemologist will be running out of the 15th post, meaning he's outside the pacesetter and has extra room to maneuver because he's the first in line after the break of the two gates.
Jump in on him sooner than later because his payout will continue to drop, and he's a got a great chance to win this race.
The Intriguing Plays
We've gone through only three horses thus far, and that leaves us with the most intriguing plays in the field.
Those worth playing for a potential win, or as a sweeteners in an exacta, trifecta or superfecta box, include:
- Dullahan: 8-1
- Hansen: 10-1
- Take Charge Indy: 10-1
- Creative Cause: 12-1
- I'll Have Another: 12-1
Dullahan drew the fifth post between the two favorites and will have his work cut out for him. He's a talented horse with the potential to land in the money, but he's 0-3 running at Churchill Downs.
Hansen is arguably the best bet in the entire field. At 10-1, the nearly white colt breaks from the 14th post, meaning he also has room to maneuver due to a break in the gates. He's fast enough to run with the pacesetter if he wants to and is talented enough to win.
Take Charge Indy has Calvin Borel in the saddle, and he's running near the rail—that's all you need to know. His payout will continue to drop.
Creative Cause has a lot to deal with, running just inside of Trinniberg from the eighth post. He's worth considering, but he could get drawn into speed before he's ready to go.
And finally, I'll Have Another breaks from the 19th post, but it shouldn't affect him any. He's well clear of the pacesetter, and that works perfectly for him as he'll charge from behind. At 12-1, the horse offers a great price.
The Dark Horses
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With eight horses down, that leaves only 12 more in the field, and only a few of them are worth throwing money on.
The dark horses of the 138th running include:
- Alpha: 15-1
- Daddy Nose Best: 15-1
- El Padrino: 20-1
- Sabercat: 30-1
- Trinniberg: 50-1
Alpha and Daddy Nose Best break from the 11th and 10th posts respectively, just outside of Trinniberg in No. 9. The two 15-1 horses have their work cut out for them, but if everything breaks right, they have a chance.
El Padrino runs from just outside of Gemologist, the 16th post, while Sabercat breaks from the 18th post. The two will have a chance to make a move late and could run into the money if things open up well for them.
Trinniberg is hardly a dark horse as everyone knows he'll fade after setting the pace early, but crazier things have happened than a pacesetter running the distance and into the money.
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The following horses aren't worth throwing money on for various reasons, including speed and position.
They're talented enough, and anything can happen, but they're unlikely to make the run for the roses:
- Daddy Long Legs: 30-1
- Done Talking: 50-1
- Liason: 50-1
- Optimizer: 50-1
- Prospective: 30-1
- Rousing Sermon: 50-1