Fantasy Baseball: Don't Be Afraid to Start San Francisco Giants Tim Lincecum

It’s been a tough introduction to the 2012 campaign for San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Tim Lincecum. That’s an understatement.

The two-time Cy Young Award winner has been thoroughly abused in his first three starts of the season, posting a disgusting 10.54 ERA through 13.2 innings. Hitters are usually shaking in their boots at the prospect of facing the 27-year-old righty; but so far this year, it’s been embarrassingly easy at the plate, as the opposition is batting .340 with an eye-popping .992 OPS.

Yikes.

What gives? This trifecta of terribleness has induced an outbreak of concern in the Bay Area, labeled as an official Lincecum slump. The only reason fans aren’t in a widespread pandemic of grief is the fact that a) the Giants are somehow treading water with a 6-6 record, and b) Barry Zito has a skinny 1.13 ERA and 0.69 WHIP in his two starts this season, including a regal complete-game shutout of the Colorado Rockies on April 9th. Yes, Barry Freakin’ Zito has outperformed Tim the Freak Lincecum.

Freaky.

This reversal of fortunes for both Lincecum and Zito has Giants fans—and fantasy baseball owners—in a daze, feeling as though they have just woken up in Bizarro World. Next thing they know, garlic fries won’t cost an arm and a leg, and the Los Angeles Dodgers will be cheered as visitors.

However, regarding Bizarro-Lincecum and his not-so-super performance this season, it’s safe to assume that this three-game stretch is simply a blip on the radar, and that the Lincecum we all know and love will find his equilibrium, which is dominating the rest of the National League.

That back-to-normal feeling will occur, starting this weekend, when Lincecum and the Giants visit the New York Mets for a four-game wrap-around series, starting Friday night. Lincecum is slated to start in Sunday’s matinee, squaring off against Mets righty Dillon Gee. This is music to the hears of fantasy owners.

True, New York isn’t exactly hurting offensively, ranking 11th in the NL in runs score per game and fifth in batting average, at .259. However, Lincecum has dominated in his two starts at Citi Field, posting a 1.38 ERA over 13 innings, striking out 20 batters along the way. Furthermore, the current Mets roster does has not had any iota of success against Lincecum in their collective careers, posting a combined .210 batting average, with no home runs. In fact, Mets All-Star third baseman David Wright has been wronged by Lincecum over and over, tallying 11 strikeouts in 17 at-bats to go with an anemic .118 batting average.

This bodes well for Giants fans. More importantly, fantasy baseball owners who have Lincecum on their rosters will be extremely relieved at the forecast ahead. Because—let’s face it—Lincecum is not very likely to have four horrible starts in a row. And the likelihood decreases even more based on the fact that he has had tremendous success facing the Mets in New York. Add the fact that current Mets have struck out a 30 times combined in 76 career at-bats makes for some delicious fantasy possibilities for Lincecum this Sunday.

Lincecum’s following start is even juicier, as he is lined up to face the San Diego Padres back at home, next Friday, April 27th. The Giants right-hander has comprehensively dominated San Diego throughout his career, posting a 1.96 ERA in 18 starts against the Padres. He has struck out 137 hitters in 119.1 innings, allowing a very impressive .206 batting average.

The Padres are currently ranked 15th in the National League in team batting average (.213) and 13th in both slugging percentage (.333) and runs scored per game (3.43). Additionally, their 121 strikeouts as an offense are the most in the league, which is great news for Lincecum, who still been mowing down hitters this year—16 strikeouts in 13.2 innings. That’s even better news for Lincecum owners, who have been beside themselves with the notion that their ace has completely lost his luster so far this season.

Though it has been a difficult go-around for Lincecum to open the season. Who’d have thought that he would actually be the weakest link in the Giants’ rotation, behind Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Ryan Vogelsong and Barry Freakin’ Zito?

But the veteran Lincecum is savvy enough to bounce back to what fans all recognize to be his regular self. And looking ahead at week ahead for San Francisco, the schedule will only abet him in his return to stellar Cy Young form.

Fantasy owners should not be deterred by the rough stretch Lincecum is going through. After this upcoming week, everything should be back to normal.

Follow me on Twitter: @nathanieljue