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Ryan Vogelsong will not be able to duplicate last season's success in 2012. That is simply unrealistic to expect.
He finished with a 2.71 ERA, which wasn't even indicative of the type of season Vogelsong had in 2011. He kept his ERA under two up until June 22, and maintained a 2.19 ERA at the beginning of August.
He certainly deserved to make the All-Star team in 2011, and fortunately Bruce Bochy had the authority to accommodate him.
One thing that naysayers look at when they claim that Vogelsong will regress in 2012 is his BABIP of .280. This means that opposing batters were only hitting .280 when they put the ball in play, which, of course, isn't a high batting average.
Some would call this luck on Vogelsong's part, but that isn't necessarily the case. Vogelsong is a pitcher that locates his fastball extremely well and pitches to contact.
He isn't a strikeout pitcher. You can't teach an old dog new tricks, and Vogelsong has accepted that. He now relies on pinpoint accuracy with his fastball on each side of the plate, which can prevent hitters from consistently making solid contact.
As long as Vogelsong is able to retain his excellent command in 2012, he'll be due for another solid season.