UFC 142: Jose Aldo vs. Chad Mendes Breakdown

Jose Aldo will be making his third UFC title defense this Saturday when he takes on Chad "Money" Mendes in Brazil.

Against Aldo, Mendes will have to fight the most dangerous striker in the division.

Against Mendes, Aldo will have to fight the most dangerous wrestler in the division.

Each will be fighting the biggest test of their UFC careers, but only one can walk away holding the featherweight belt.

Striking

Aldo is the most dangerous striker at 145 pounds, and one of the very best strikers in the sport.  

He has power in everything he throws and has fantastic head movement.

Mendes has never had great striking.  In fact, it can be argued that he's never displayed good striking.  He has some power, but not much else.

Aldo did not finish Mark Hominick or Kenny Florian on the feet with strikes, but he easily defeated both of them—each a more dangerous striker than Mendes.

If Mendes engages in a prolonged striking war with Aldo, he will find himself knocked out.

Advantage: Aldo

Submissions

Each fighter has one submission win.

Mendes has one guillotine choke finish to his name.

Aldo has a submission finish due to soccer kicks.

Neither are great submission artists, but Aldo is a BJJ black belt.

If one fighter submits the other, Aldo will almost certainly be the one securing that submission.

Advantage: Aldo

Wrestling

Chad Mendes is one of the most decorated wrestlers to ever enter mixed martial arts.  

His takedowns and groundwork have kept him undefeated since his MMA debut.

Aldo has no formal background in wrestling, but he does have excellent takedown defense. This was displayed against Urijah Faber and Florian.

He also trained with Gray Maynard for this fight, which could only have helped his defensive wrestling.

But Aldo's impressive defensive wrestling does not nullify Mendes' superior offensive technique, so the clear edge goes to Mendes.

Advantage: Mendes

Cardio

We have never seen Mendes go five rounds, but he has been to decision often and usually doesn't look exhausted toward the end of his fights.

Aldo found himself dangerously exhausted in his fight against Hominick, and didn't look great against Florian either.

Based on recent trends, Aldo will be the first one to tire if the fight enters the championship rounds.

Advantage: Mendes

Chin

Neither of these fighters have ever been knocked out.

And, as far as I am aware, neither has ever even been knocked down.

I have no reason to believe that one fighter will be worse at eating heavy shots than the other.

Advantage: Even

Winner: Jose Aldo

Ultimately, Aldo is too dangerous and too well-rounded for Mendes.

Mendes may enjoy a wrestling advantage, but his wrestling advantage is not nearly as significant as Aldo's huge striking advantage.

Mendes will almost certainly secure takedowns in his fight against Aldo, but Aldo will be able to work his way up to his feet without taking too much damage.

On the feet, Aldo will throw kicks to hurt the lead leg and takedown abilities of Mendes. And, when Mendes loses his ability to take Aldo down, he will have no answer to the hands of Aldo.

Mendes is a competitor and will put up a fight, but he won't make it the distance with Aldo.  

Expect Aldo to get the better of Mendes and secure his first UFC finish.

Jose Aldo by 3rd round TKO