Will Carroll has produced an annual Team Health Report for each MLB team for 12 years. The report gives risk ratings for every player in the expected starting lineup and starting rotation, plus two relievers. A proprietary formula sets a baseline according to a player's age and position. It is adjusted by 12 factors, including injury history, team history and expected workload.
This risk rating is classified into three tiers—red (high risk), yellow (medium risk) and green (lower risk). It should be used as a guideline for your favorite team or fantasy baseball draft and is about probability, not prediction. To learn more about how the Team Health Reports are devised, click on this article.
2012 Rank: 17th best of 30 teams in DL days and dollars lost
Biggest Injury of 2012: Dillon Gee, $4 million lost value
Head Athletic Trainer: Ray Ramirez
The Mets had one of the worst seasons, if not the worst, in the history of baseball just five years ago. They didn't just come in last; they were the Cleveland Spiders of injury stats. The surprising thing is that while lots around the team changed, the medical staff didn't. Ray Ramirez was there before and after that season, which suggests that the people making the decisions and the new people that made another set of decisions all agreed that that one season was a fluke.
Ramirez and his staff couldn't stop something that happened, but since then, they've shown that the biggest part to blame was the talent on the field. The Mets suffered a combination of the kind of injuries that happen once a decade—like what happened with David Wright with a fluke back injury—and the kind of problems that can happen in an unlucky year.
The stats were never that bad before or since. They've been in line with expectations, based on some experimental tools I'm working with. Injury stats themselves are interesting; days and dollars lost are real, while injury cost and risk ratings give a look into the more functional effect on a team. The next step would be to be able to measure the difference between a team's expected risk and what the actual loss was.
We're not there yet, but at that point we'll know just how bad that one horrible season was and how much better they were the next five years.
This slideshow gives an injury-risk rating for each member of the Mets' lineup and rotation, plus two relievers. As explained above, each player is classified as red (high risk), yellow (medium risk) or green (low risk).
Click ahead for the Mets. Here are links to all the teams' reports.
|AL East||Baltimore||Boston||New York||Tampa Bay||Toronto|
|AL Central||Chicago||Cleveland||Detroit||Kansas City||Minnesota|
Miami ||New York||Philadelphia||Washington|
|NL Central||Chicago||Cincinnati||Milwaukee||Pittsburgh||St. Louis|
|NL West||Arizona||Colorado||L.A.||San Diego||S.F.|
Will Carroll is the lead writer for sports medicine at Bleacher Report. He has written about sports injuries and related topics for 12 years.