Will Carroll has produced an annual Team Health Report for each MLB team for 12 years. The report gives risk ratings for every player in the expected starting lineup and starting rotation, plus two relievers. A proprietary formula sets a baseline according to a player's age and position. It is adjusted by 12 factors, including injury history, team history and expected workload.
This risk rating is classified into three tiers—red (high risk), yellow (medium risk) and green (lower risk). It should be used as a guideline and is about probability, not prediction. To learn more about how the Team Health Reports are devised, click on this article.
2012 Rank: 8th of 30 teams in DL days and dollars lost
Biggest Injury: Giancarlo Stanton, $5.2 million value lost
Head Athletic Trainer: Sean Cunningham
I'm a baseball guy first. It's the sport that truly has my heart, despite my upbringing. Even before I did this for a living, I pored over charts, stared at the back of baseball cards and can remember the day I found the Mann-Malin Guide in a Hastings. I have spent more hours on dirty, dusty fields than I can count and even more watching the game from every angle.
That's why I'm almost offended by the Marlins. It's not the fire-sale trade. It's not the stadium that will end up a financial debacle for the city. It's not even that center field Cthulhu out there that burns the retinas of anyone watching.
No, it's the fact that there's a major league team that makes me say "who?" when I go through the roster. This team might not be worse than last year's squad, a team that never came together despite being relatively healthy.
It was as bad as what happened in Boston, just with a lesser media presence.
It's not just me. When I make my calls to scouts and front-office types to help me put together the subjective part of the rankings, I'm used to hearing something like "Well, I haven't seen him much so can't say." With some of these Marlins, I got nothing but "who?" (The subjective part is a very small part and absent enough input, the adjustment zeroes out, so don't worry about this affecting things.)
The Marlins could, however, turn things around quickly. Once again, they've traded away expensive vets for a decent core of younger and mostly healthier players. The risks they have are mostly of the "hasn't established himself" variety, with only Placido Polanco as a purchased risk. He's cheap and might work out, so no big deal either way.
The Marlins are going to have to hope they can keep a no-name bunch as healthy as they did last year, while hoping everything else goes better. Good luck with that, guys.
Click ahead for the Marlins. Here are links to all the teams' reports.
|AL East||Baltimore||Boston||New York||Tampa Bay||Toronto|
|AL Central||Chicago||Cleveland||Detroit||Kansas City||Minnesota|
Miami ||New York||Philadelphia||Washington|
|NL Central||Chicago||Cincinnati||Milwaukee||Pittsburgh||St. Louis|
|NL West||Arizona||Colorado||L.A.||San Diego||S.F.|
Will Carroll is the Lead Writer for Sports Medicine at Bleacher Report. He has written about sports injuries and related topics for 12 years. His column is called "the industry standard" by Hall of Famer Peter Gammons.