Each Non-NBA Playoff Team's Key Offseason Decision
For most of the NBA, there’s too much to do right now to start thinking about next season.
Scouting playoff matchups, getting guys healthy and ready for a long postseason slog, adding in special wrinkles for opponents to come—this all takes precedent ahead of sorting out draft prospects and planning for potential free agents.
Still, you can bet there’s plenty of energy being devoted to those ends in every organization, winning or otherwise For the 14 teams on the outside looking in this spring, there’s no time like the present to start laying out a blueprint for the summer of 2017 and the season to come thereafter.
This year’s draft looks to be loaded with blue-chip prospects, with Washington’s Markelle Fultz and UCLA’s Lonzo Ball atop the heap. The upcoming free-agent class figures to be jam-packed as well, even if you assume Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry—the two best players on the market—are re-signing with the Golden State Warriors. The trade market could be just as busy, with Paul George and Jimmy Butler potentially back on the block.
But while every lottery-bound club has the same overarching problem (i.e. too much losing), each one will have its own needs to address and solutions to try out in the months to come. With that in mind, here’s a look at the biggest consideration for every one of this season’s non-playoff teams.
Haven't Clinched Yet, One Way or Another
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Chicago Bulls: New Digs For Jimmy Butler
The Chicago Bulls entertained trade offers for Jimmy Butler during the 2016 draft and reopened talks in the lead-up to February's deadline. What's to stop them from setting up shop again this summer, without any time constraints and, perhaps, with back-to-back lottery trips to motivate them?
Butler, for his part, has been brilliant of late, pouring in 27.1 points, 7.2 assists and 6.1 rebounds while hitting 60.0 percent of his threes over a 13-game stretch. At 27, with two guaranteed years left on his deal, he could bring back a haul to help Chicago rebuild from the ground up.
But this Bulls regime prides itself on postseason contention, and dealing Butler would put that annual goal out of reach from the get-go next season. Then again, if Chicago is inclined to keep Fred Hoiberg on as head coach, what better way to give him a vote of confidence than to rid the roster of his biggest headache?
Indiana Pacers: The Paul George Problem
Paul George, too, appeared to be on the trading block in February, only for the Indiana Pacers to pull back. They may be motivated to open up negotiations for real this offseason—and not just because of George's perceived disenchantment with the franchise that drafted him.
If he cracks one of the three All-NBA teams, the Pacers will be able to make him a "Godfather" offer in the form of an extension worth more than $200 million. That kind of scratch would be difficult (if not impossible) to turn down, no matter how displeased PG-13 may be with Indy's direction.
But if George falls short, the gap between what the Pacers could pay him and what, say, the Los Angeles Lakers could propose when he hits free agency in 2018 would shrink considerably. That could be enough to convince Indy that now is the time to get something in return for George before he walks, especially if that something can accelerate a rebuild around Myles Turner.
Miami Heat: How to Spend Their Cap Space Post-Chris Bosh
As the Palm Beach Post’s Anthony Chiang explained, the Heat could be flush with cap space when they’re able to clear out Chris Bosh’s contract, with $75.8 million remaining over the next three seasons, on account of his heart condition:
"The most likely scenario is that the Heat clear Bosh’s contract, and Dion Waiters and Willie Reed opt out of their contracts with more money likely available in free agency. In this case, Miami would have about $40 million in cap space this offseason. That number could be bumped up to $46 million if the Heat decline Wayne Ellington’s $6.3 million team option for next season. That money could be used to sign a max player or lure a few quality free agents to Miami.
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This year’s free-agent class could be a doozy, with All-Stars like Blake Griffin, Gordon Hayward, Paul Millsap and Dwyane Wade potentially up for grabs at positions of need for the Heat. And without a league-wide cap boom coming in July, Miami won’t have quite so many financially flexible competitors in the open market.
Brooklyn Nets: Brook Lopez’s Fate
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Believe it or not, Brook Lopez is already one of the greatest players in Nets history, Brooklyn or otherwise. He stands alone atop the franchise’s career scoring list after putting up 25 points against the Boston Celtics on Monday to pass Buck Williams.
"It’s a great honor, obviously a lot of amazing players have played here," Lopez said, per ESPN. "I’m just proud to have my name up there with those guys."
But how much longer will Lopez be around to bolster his standing in Brooklyn? The Nets clinched the league’s worst record this season, after winding up third-worst in 2015-16, and appear poised for another ignominious finish next year lest they somehow strike gold in free agency this summer.
Brooklyn, though, won’t have much to show for all that suffering. Last year’s first-round pick and next year’s belong to Boston outright as recompense for the team’s 2013 trade for Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Jason Terry. The Celtics also have swap rights on the Nets’ 2017 first-rounder, which means Boston could snag the No. 1 overall pick while Brooklyn lands in the late 20s.
Any path out of putridity will be long and arduous for Nets general manager Sean Marks. Selling off what few veterans assets are currently on the roster could help to restock the team’s coffers for a real rebuild.
But after failing to negotiate a satisfactory return for Lopez ahead of February’s trade deadline, will Brooklyn do any better in that regard this offseason? Or might the Nets be inclined to sit tight after more than doubling their season win total since March 1?
Charlotte Hornets: What to Do with the Team's Lottery Pick
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The Charlotte Hornets could chalk their return to the lottery up to injury absences from Cody Zeller and Frank Kaminsky, along with an 0-9 record in games decided by three points or fewer. But those look like proximate causes compared to the same ultimate cause that’s plagued Charlotte throughout Michael Jordan’s stewardship: a lack of elite talent
Kemba Walker turned himself into an All-Star this season but wouldn’t be mistaken for one of the Association’s very best point guards. Nicolas Batum’s production this season was comparable to that of his first in Charlotte but came at a markup of more than two-thirds on the cap sheet.
To compete for a spot in the East’s top eight, let alone put together a deep playoff run, the Hornets will need to upgrade the talent around its two cornerstones. It will be up to general manager Rich Cho—who had his contract option for next season picked up, per ESPN’s Marc Stein—to determine whether and how best to pursue new pieces.
Charlotte could sit tight and hope that continued development from its top 20-somethings (i.e. Zeller, Kaminsky, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist) will be sufficient for improvement, with more upside to come from a lottery pick in this year’s draft. Or, Cho could cash in some of his younger and more promising chips for veteran help, be it in the form of a wing scorer or a sturdy two-way center.
Whichever direction Cho goes, and how that choice turns out, could determine whether he and Steve Clifford stay in the Queen City beyond 2018.
Dallas Mavericks: Nerlens Noel’s Restricted Free Agency
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Despite swinging and missing on more than a few marquee free agents in recent years, the Dallas Mavericks have managed to cobble together an intriguing core to bridge the gap between Dirk Nowitzki’s twilight and the era soon to follow.
First came Wesley Matthews in the summer of 2015. Then, last summer, came Harrison Barnes. Each of those pursuits, though, saw the Mavs fall short of adding the star center they’ve coveted ever since they parted ways with Tyson Chandler after their title run in 2011.
Dallas may have finally found a solution when it snagged Nerlens Noel from the Philadelphia 76ers at this year’s trade deadline. But is the spindly 23-year-old ready to be the Mavs’ man in the middle?
The team will have to decide after just 22 games with him in its employ. Come July, Noel will be a restricted free agent, and Dallas will have to pay a pretty penny to keep him.
By and large, Noel has played well for the Mavs. According to NBA.com, he’s ranked among the league’s top quartile in pick-and-roll efficiency while offering a much-needed presence as a rebounder and shot-blocker on the other end in Big D.
Still, a four- or five-year commitment worth in excess of $20 million per season for someone with Noel’s injury history and without much of a track record as a Mav could spook the team enough to proceed with extreme caution. Luckily for Dallas, it will have the right to match any offer that comes his way, so general manager Donnie Nelson and owner Mark Cuban can wait and see how the market for Noel shakes out before shelling out mega-millions for him.
Denver Nuggets: Assembling the Right Supporting Cast for Nikola Jokic
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One thing is clear for the Denver Nuggets: Nikola Jokic is the present and the future. What’s less certain is who from the present will be sticking around for that future.
The Nuggets had and will have talent to help them win now. But Danilo Gallinari, the team’s leading scorer, can be a free agent this summer; Wilson Chandler and Kenneth Faried were both dangled as trade bait up to the late February deadline; and Jameer Nelson, though effective as Denver’s starting point guard, is now 35.
Lurking just beneath that layer of productive rotation players is a core of young talent, from Will Barton and Gary Harris to Emmanuel Mudiay and rookies Jamal Murray and Juancho Hernangomez. Mudiay aside, that latter group seems to offer a combination of shooting and cutting that should complement Jokic perfectly on offense. And with a late lottery pick looming in this year’s draft, Denver might not be done stockpiling prospects.
But diving head-first into such a youth movement could set the franchise back in the win column next season, on the heels of a 2016-17 campaign that nearly saw the Nuggets sneak into the playoffs. That leaves Denver in a uniquely tricky position.
The front office could look to surround Jokic with an experienced supporting cast, whether by throwing big money after free agents or cashing in some of its cheaper trade chips. It could also prioritize the upside of its youngsters over the relative certain of franchise fixtures like Gallinari, Faried and Chandler and hope Jokic, now 22, is already good enough to elevate the games of his fellow fresh-faced teammates.
The Nuggets need not swing entirely one way or another age-wise. That factor might only matter insofar as what it says about each player’s ability to work with Jokic over the long haul and how much it will cost.
Detroit Pistons: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s Restricted Free Agency
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Had Stanley Johnson broken out during his second year, it’s possible the Detroit Pistons might have had some leeway to pass on retaining Kentavious Caldwell-Pope this summer. But Johnson’s continued struggles in year two, after an underwhelming year one, means the Pistons will almost certainly have to pony up for KCP.
In truth, the trouble here isn’t about one player or one position. A pay raise for Caldwell-Pope would send Detroit soaring past the salary cap and leave the team strapped for space until the summer of 2019. By then, Tobias Harris and Marcus Morris would be off the books, with Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson still due eight-figure incomes for at least one more year.
That’s a long time to be strapped into a squad that has but one playoff appearance (and no postseason wins) to show for its efforts. Then again, the Pistons won’t have much cap room with which to upgrade their roster this summer. And though Caldwell-Pope isn’t a star, at 24, he’s turned out to be one of the league’s better perimeter defenders while setting new career highs in three-point percentage (35.1 percent) and assists (2.6 per game) this season.
If the team continues to stagnate, Stan Van Gundy, Detroit’s head coach and president of basketball operations, can opt to reorganize the roster via trade, using its own picks (the Pistons don’t owe any first-rounders) to either augment the group or grease the skids for deals.
So while Caldwell-Pope’s free agency may not be the be-all, end-all of the Pistons’ summer outlook, it could offer a window into what the franchise thinks its current crop is capable of and can become down the line.
Los Angeles Lakers: Build Slowly with Youth or Go for the Quick Fix
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Los Angeles Lakers fans are moaning and detractors are crowing about the same thing: the team’s failure...to tank. At first, the Lakers’ midseason decision to sit Timofey Mozgov, Luol Deng and Nick Young as healthy scratches helped their pursuit of more lottery combinations—and, in turn, an enhanced chance at keeping their top-three-protected pick. But a recent five-game winning streak, their longest in four years, could hurt those odds.
Head coach Luke Walton, for one, isn’t so concerned.
"We're not going to tell our guys to go out there and lose," he said, per Bleacher Report’s Eric Pincus. "That's not what sports is about. That's not how any of these guys got here. It's not right. It's the players' job ... to play as hard as they can, to try and win every game they can."
The run of success engineered by L.A.’s kids could impact the franchise’s immediate future in more ways than just imperiling this year’s pick.
If the Lakers’ 2017 first-rounder conveys to Philadelphia, the team will still owe its top 2019 selection to the Orlando Magic. If L.A. hangs onto its upcoming spot, it will convey its 2018 first-round pick to the 76ers outright while shipping its 2017 and 2018 second-rounders to Orlando.
Suppose the Lakers get lucky again and avert yet another lottery crisis. Would they be inclined to keep their latest draftee, another youngster who isn’t old enough to buy a beer—be it Washington’s Markelle Fultz, UCLA’s Lonzo Ball, Kansas’ Josh Jackson or any of the other blue-chip prospects in this class—and all but guarantee a fifth straight season without playoff basketball? Or might the new front-office tandem of Magic Johnson and Rob Pelinka try to flip some of the team’s rising talent for an established cornerstone who can lead the Lakers back to the postseason right away?
Jeanie Buss, the Lakers’ controlling owner, has already made her feelings known. She told Forbes’ Mike Ozanian that it "would break my heart" if the Lakers didn’t have a representative in next year’s All-Star Game at Staples Center.
Perhaps, though, a late-season push by D’Angelo Russell, Julius Randle, Brandon Ingram, Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance Jr. to show they can win will convince the powers that be that patience is the most prudent path forward for the Purple and Gold.
Minnesota Timberwolves: What to Do at Shooting Guard
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Six weeks after tearing the ACL in his left knee, Zach LaVine already looked to be remarkably ahead of schedule in his recovery.
"It seems like he didn't have surgery," Minnesota Timberwolves point guard Ricky Rubio, who’s battled back from an ACL tear before, told the Associated Press’ Jon Krawczynski. "He's walking around here, and me and [Brandon Rush] spent like six weeks with crutches. He's shooting already. He's a freak athlete, and you can tell the way he's recovering, if the season was one or two months more, he probably would play."
On its face, the Wolves would and should be eager to have LaVine back when he’s ready next season. Between his 18.9 points, 38.7 percent shooting from three-point range and otherworldly athleticism, LaVine is a lethal weapon on a team that already features two of the best young threats in basketball, in Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins. At 22, the UCLA product could have another level or two to reach once he’s all the way back from his knee injury.
Dig deeper, though, and there’s reason to wonder whether LaVine is the long-term solution at shooting guard in 'Sota. According to NBA.com, the Wolves’ starting unit with Rush at the 2 has been 4.2 points per 100 possessions better than that same group with LaVine. Sub in Shabazz Muhammad for his fellow Bruin, and that gap grows to 11.6 points per 100 possessions.
Minny can take some time to sort out its situation with LaVine. He won’t hit restricted free agency until the summer of 2018. In the meantime, head coach/president of basketball operations Tom Thibodeau and general manager Scott Layden will have to consider whether it’s prudent to spend a top-10 pick on another wing should the Wolves wind up with a good one at their draft slot this June.
New Orleans Pelicans: Jrue Holiday’s Free Agency
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It’s Boogie-Brow or Bust for the New Orleans Pelicans this offseason. That much is clear. What’s less certain is how the team will build around Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins ahead of an all-important 2017-18 campaign.
The Pelicans could use all the shooting and perimeter playmaking they can muster to complement their twin towers. But without anything approaching max cap space or much in the way of future assets to help offload the cumbersome salaries due to Omer Asik and Solomon Hill (among others), New Orleans may have to settle for in-house solutions.
That search will likely begin with Jrue Holiday. The 26-year-old struggled with his shot once Cousins arrived (42.2 percent from the field, 31.2 percent from three post-All-Star), but he may be the best guard the Pelicans could hope to have or acquire this season. Holiday, though, won’t come cheaply.
Should Stephen Curry, Chris Paul and Kyle Lowry all stay put, he would be arguably the best point guard on the market, with Utah’s George Hill and Indiana’s Jeff Teague also in the running. As abundant as quality floor generals may be these days, Holiday could still command a pretty penny for his services.
For what it’s worth, his teammates seem eager to welcome him back to the Crescent City. "I think one of the main goals this offseason is to get him to re-sign and sign for as long as he possibly can," Hill told the New Orleans Advocate’s Scott Kushner.
It won’t be up to Pelicans players to figure out whether to bring Holiday back, let alone for how long and how much. Instead, the onus will be on general manager Dell Demps and the same front office that put New Orleans in this difficult spot to assemble an effective supporting cast around the team’s new dynamic duo leading into Cousins’ contract year.
New York Knicks: What to Do in the Draft
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Try as they might, the New York Knicks can’t dictate Carmelo Anthony’s future without his approval, thanks to a no-trade clause that Phil Jackson included in the All-Star’s current contract. Nor does it seem at all likely they will spend big to bring back Derrick Rose after his up-and-down season.
How the Knicks approach those issues, though, may depend on their fate come draft day.
New York looks likely to wind up with a top-six pick in a draft that’s deep on talent, particularly at point guard. Adding a young ball-handler like Kentucky’s De’Aaron Fox or NC State’s Dennis Smith Jr. could make parting ways with Rose a no-brainer. Should one of this year’s gifted wings, be it Kansas’ Josh Jackson or Duke’s Jayson Tatum, land in the Knicks’ lap, the team’s push to move Anthony might heat up to an even higher degree.
Above all, the Knicks owe it to themselves and their fans to make sure that any changes to their roster jibe with Kristaps Porzingis’ style of play and outlook. His play this season (18.1 points on 45.0 percent shooting, 35.7 percent from three, 7.2 rebounds, 2.0 blocks) only clarified his importance to the future of the franchise.
Not that there isn’t a place for someone like Anthony on the Knicks going forward. Every youth movement needs a veteran to show it the ropes, and Anthony, for all his peculiarities, knows the league as well as anyone.
"However it shakes out, if he’s back in that veteran leadership role, he’s really got to take it and help the guys out," head coach Jeff Hornacek said of Anthony, per the New York Post’s Marc Berman. "We’ll have a lot of young guys out there."
Orlando Magic: Rob Hennigan’s Role
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Before the Orlando Magic turn their attention to the next phase of their never-ending rebuild, they will have to sort out who will be leading the charge. After five years at the head of the post-Dwight Howard recovery, general manager Rob Hennigan may have worn out his welcome.
"We’ve begun the process," Magic CEO Alex Martins said of his evaluation of Hennigan, per the Orlando Sentinel’s Josh Robbins.
That process isn’t likely to spit out results that speak highly of Orlando’s front office.
During Hennigan’s half-decade on the job, the Magic have won just 32 percent of their games while watching him sign off on blunder after blunder, from trading Tobias Harris for Ersan Ilyasova and Brandon Jennings, to dealing Victor Oladipo and a lottery pick (Domantas Sabonis) for Serge Ibaka, to signing Bismack Biyombo for $70 million when the frontcourt was already full.
Not to mention how poorly the Magic have managed roles for Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton, or how little Mario Hezonja has produced in the two seasons since he was the No. 5 pick in what’s turned out to be an excellent draft.
Orlando will once again be slated for a top-five slot in 2017, but don’t count on Hennigan being around to make the call on draft day in late June.
Philadelphia 76ers: How to Load Up on Shooters
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Ask Brett Brown what the Philadelphia 76ers will need to succeed next season, and aside from health, he’ll harp on one thing: shooting.
"That’s kind of the bottom line," Brown said, per Philly.com’s Keith Pompey. "We need to get Ben Simmons the ball. We need to have Joel [Embiid] be Joel and get a bunch of shooters around them."
To that end, the Sixers will have options. They could be picking twice in the top 10 of this year’s draft, depending on how the Lakers’ selection shakes out, where Kentucky’s Malik Monk figures to land.
Come July, they could target Otto Porter Jr., Kyle Lowry (a Philly native), Gordon Hayward, Danilo Gallinari, J.J. Redick, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope or any other shooter on the market with their cavernous cap space. With or without big-money additions, the Sixers can look forward to improvement from incumbents like Robert Covington, Shawn Long and Rookie of the Year favorite Dario Saric.
"We need to get him next year to 35 [percent]," Brown said of Saric, per Philly.com, "and it’s in him."
Remember, too, that Embiid shot 36.7 percent from three during his 31 games as a rookie.
The Sixers will have all the tools they need to upgrade their perimeter arsenal this summer. It will be up to general manager Bryan Colangelo to attract the players he wants and sign the ones his team needs to succeed.
Phoenix Suns: Which Veterans to Keep
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The Phoenix Suns’ bundle of young prospects has shown plenty of promise since the team decided to shut down its more experienced constituents amid one of the NBA’s more epic tank jobs.
Devin Booker exploded for 70 points in Boston. Tyler Ulis has six point-assist double-doubles in his last 14 starts. Marquese Chriss has flashed some tantalizing talent at power forward, with Alan Williams getting his fill of points and rebounds off the bench and Dragan Bender recently returning from injury. Alex Len has finally stayed healthy enough for long enough to show what he can do at center.
Some day, that group could constitute the core of a competitive club. But it may be another year or two (or more) before this Phoenix team gets there, and it won’t come close without some veteran leadership to light the way.
Tyson Chandler, who was in high school when he first bonded with current Suns head coach Earl Watson, could play the part of Yoda in the Valley of the Sun. So could Jared Dudley and Leandro Barbosa, both of whom returned to Phoenix last summer for that purpose. Eric Bledsoe, at 27, is too good to be just a coach on the roster.
All of the Suns’ older players would and could be tremendously valuable to teams that are ready to win. Phoenix isn’t there yet, and it might not be much closer after adding another freshman phenom to its roster via the draft. Whom the Suns choose could factor into which vets they shop.
If they wind up in the top two, would they take Washington’s Markelle Fultz or UCLA’s Lonzo Ball at the point and dangle Bledsoe? If Kansas’ Josh Jackson is the pick, could Phoenix clear a spot on the wing by offering up Dudley and T.J. Warren to potential suitors? Perhaps the Suns would cast their eye toward Tucson for more than a glimpse of Lauri Markkanen, a skilled big man from the University of Arizona.
Draft day will be a big one in Phoenix, though it may be just the beginning of a summer full of reshuffling for the Suns.
Sacramento Kings: Who Will Lead the Front Office?
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Another year, another round of rumors and rumblings regarding the Sacramento Kings’ power structure.
According to The Vertical’s Adrian Wojnarowski, the Kings recently reached out to former 76ers general manager Sam Hinkie, who’s spent the past year in Northern California, about joining their front office. The role would’ve had Hinkie installed as Vlade Divac’s superior, all but sidelining Sacramento’s current GM in much the same way his predecessor, Pete D’Alessandro, was just over two years ago.
Divac hasn’t shown himself to be particularly adept in his current role. Trading DeMarcus Cousins to the New Orleans Pelicans was but the latest in a long line of moves for which he was panned. His decisions to draft so many young bigs and, in 2015, trade picks and players to clear cap space for middling free agents set the stage for the futility to come.
Now, the Kings find themselves without an identifiable cornerstone on their roster, but not absent talent. Buddy Hield has had the hot hand since coming over from New Orleans. Willie Cauley-Stein and Skal Labissiere have both shown considerable promise since taking over for their fellow Kentucky Wildcat.
The Kings need not panic if none of those prospects pans out over the long run. They will have two lottery picks in a loaded 2017 draft: their own and New Orleans’. A point guard here, a two-way wing there, and voila! Sacramento could have the fresh pieces it needs to put together a coherent puzzle.
But first, team owner Vivek Ranadive must determine whether he wants Divac running the show or would rather turn over his basketball operations to a more seasoned executive.
All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. All stats via NBA.com and Basketball Reference unless otherwise noted and are current through Tuesday, April 11.
Josh Martin covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook, and listen to his Hollywood Hoops podcast with B/R Lakers lead writer Eric Pincus.
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