Ranking Potential Top Landing Spots for LeBron James in NBA Free Agency
LeBron James' latest free-agency voyage has already been discussed and dissected ad nauseam. And the debate will only take on new life from here.
The free-agent negotiation period doesn't officially start until July 1, but we know better. The race to woo him begins now, through back channels and group texts among players and leading tweets with not-so-hidden meanings.
No one should pretend to know where James will sign. He probably doesn't even know what comes next. He may have an idea or inclination, but this process is (unofficially) ongoing, and he has a history of dragging it out.
Instead of declaring the unknowable, it makes more sense to identify the best potential fits. These will not be limited to teams with effortless routes to max cap space. Other factors will shape his should-be wish list. The best of the best have the plausible means of getting him, one way or another, but the proximity to a championship and impact on his legacy matter more than convenience.
James didn't ask for our advice. We're giving it to him anyway. He'll thank us later.
Long-Shot Honorable Mention: Los Angeles Clippers
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The Los Angeles Clippers enter the offseason with one of the NBA's worst salary-cap situations. Their path to max room will open up a tad if DeAndre Jordan declines his player option, but his presence would be part of their appeal.
Orchestrating a sign-and-trade or opt-in-and-trade while rerouting Danilo Gallinari (two years, $44.2 million) is about all they can hope to do. And if James is game to play beside Jordan, Patrick Beverley and Tobias Harris for a year, the Clippers will have the flexibility to add another star in 2019.
Except, selling him on a to-be-determined title window is one thing when you have budding youngsters and eventual cap space. The Clippers don't have the former.
They steal a mention because they're in Los Angeles and because Jerry West is the business. James will have a more promising suitor within Staples Center if moving to Hollywood takes priority, though.
7. Golden State Warriors
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James laughed off a February report in which sources told ESPN.com's Chris Haynes the four-time MVP would consider pulling a Kevin Durant and heading to the Golden State Warriors. More recently, during the NBA Finals, Mr. Couldn't Beat Them So I Joined Them expressed skepticism to USA Today's Sam Amick about the same idea.
All of the salary-cap obstacles attached to acquiring James—including trade scenarios—should render the Warriors a moot landing spot. But their locker room is the place to be if he values rivaling Michael Jordan's ring (six) count above all else.
Ridiculous financial and trade-package gymnastics in mind, the Warriors will find a way to make this happen should James decree it and Stephen Curry offer his blessing.
Then again, this wouldn't be James' style. He seems more interested in undercutting Golden State's reign, as Sports Illustrated's Lee Jenkins said during an appearance on The Jim Rome Show:
"It's going to depend on: Is the motivation at this point—and I would have to lean toward that it is given everything that we know of him—to find a place where he has the best chance to create a rebuttal to the Warriors?
That rebuttal may come from within. It may come from a Warriors player saying 'I want to front my own franchise again. I want to kind of be the guy again somewhere.' It could come from the salary-cap permutations that Golden State will have to face in the next couple years. Or it could come from outside. It could come from basically LeBron James saying 'I'm going to go here, because they have this, and I think we can get more. We can get a lot more.'"
The Warriors have to be mentioned because they're the Warriors. But the negative legacy implications of leaving the Cleveland Cavaliers and boarding their bandwagon are too great for James to consider, let alone voluntarily endure.
6. San Antonio Spurs
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The San Antonio Spurs have more selling points than you may think. Kawhi Leonard remains one of them—even amid a strained relationship with the organization.
Head coach Gregg Popovich has plans to make nice with him before the June 21 draft, according to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski (via Def Pen Hoops' Rob Lopez). And as a general rule, you should always have faith in Pop's rescue missions.
Plus, who better to maximize James' twilight arc than a Spurs franchise that has trafficked in career preservation more than any other team? And who better to lead that charge than Popovich, someone James holds in high regard?
San Antonio is, without question, the most tantalizing dark horse. But its cap situation is less than ideal.
Both Rudy Gay and Danny Green must opt out to help the cause. From there, the Spurs have to renounce all their own free agents, including Kyle Anderson (restricted) and Tony Parker. And then they'll need to hope the No. 18 pick or Dejounte Murray is a good enough sweetener to wash Pau Gasol's deal (two years, $32.8 million; partial guarantee in 2019-20) from their ledger.
And guess what? After all that, they'd still fall a tick short of James' max salary ($35.4 million). So they, too, are better off crossing their fingers for trade scenarios.
Unless the Cavaliers are willing to accept veteran salary filler, picks and Murray, the Spurs are more likely to pique the Oklahoma City Thunder's interest with a LaMarcus Aldridge-for-Paul George (player option) sign-and-trade.
5. Boston Celtics
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James will have a conversation with the Boston Celtics in free agency, according to ESPN's Stephen A. Smith (via WBZ News Radio's Adam Kaufman). Color me mildly intrigued.
Although they don't have cap space to sign James, their assortment of cost-controlled prospects (Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum), future picks and incumbent stars on the right side of 30 (Gordon Hayward, 28, Kyrie Irving, 26) give them the clout to will opt-in-and-trade—or sign-and-trade—scenarios into existence.
Pairing James with head coach Brad Stevens, Al Horford and whatever wings the Celtics have left would be divine and unfair. The resulting squad would instantly transform into the Warriors' greatest threat, if not the odds-on favorite after accounting for dynasty fatigue.
But, like, really?
Boston just granted Irving an escape from Cleveland and from James last summer because his window, as a 25-year-old at the time, aligned with their own. Can they really send him back as part of a deal (after July 1)? Or to a third-party facilitator? Can they try making James and Irving love each other without begging the latter to leave in free agency next summer (player option)?
Most critically, should the Celtics even want to be involved with any of this? They're set up to run the East for the next eight to 12 years, depending on when James re-enters cryosleep. Why mess with that?
If you can get LeBron James, you get LeBron James and then figure out the rest later. That's the rule. The Celtics, though, are the lone team with the mix of established star power, youth and draft picks to view themselves as an exception.
4. Los Angeles Lakers
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The Lakers begin the summer with more than $45 million in space. They have a workable means to two max-contract slots. They play in Los Angeles.
Wojnarowski believes James will rap with George about joining forces in purple and gold (via The Oklahoman's Brett Dawson). The New York Times' Marc Stein suggested James could talk to Chris Paul about teaming up in Los Angeles rather than on the Houston Rockets.
So, er, why aren't the Lakers higher?
They're not selling the present. Not really. Even if another superstar comes with James, the Lakers' appeal is rooted in what might happen down the line. As Jenkins said:
"When you think about the Lakers, it's not necessarily what they have. It's what they have the ability to go get in the next two or three years. That maybe after Golden State cycles down somewhat they could be in a position to be that next team moving forward.
"That's where, to me, the intrigue lies with them. It's not necessarily even about Brandon Ingram and Kyle Kuzma. It's more about what they have the potential to do with those two max slots, with being Lakers, with Magic Johnson, and with some of those young players potentially growing."
Accelerating the Lakers' youth movement doesn't set up James to take down the Warriors—or even the Rockets—right away. The best-case scenario consists of him and another star playing alongside Ingram, Kuzma, Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart and Julius Randle. And that's assuming team president Magic Johnson and general manager Rob Pelinka can move the final two years and $36.8 million left on Luol Deng's contract without taking back any money.
That core isn't seasoned enough to get past a dynasty. Maybe the Lakers will be ready in a few years, when the Warriors are showing cracks or have disbanded. The 33-year-old James will be entering his age 36 or 37 season by that point. Wasting even one year of his prime, for whatever reason, is absurd. He cannot afford to wait.
Nor can he realistically believe the Lakers will consolidate their kiddies into a third star. That target isn't out there. Unexpected names hit the chopping block every year, but Leonard doesn't appear to be on his way out of San Antonio. And by the time Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis are gettable, Los Angeles' top prospects will have lost some of their shine as they near second contracts.
Yes, the Lakers are a quality fit. They're just not the fit.
3. Philadelphia 76ers
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Inject the Lakers' youthful base with some extra polish, and you get the Philadelphia 76ers.
Joel Embiid, Dario Saric, Ben Simmons and Robert Covington were ticketed for the Eastern Conference Finals not long ago. Add the league's best player, the No. 10 pick (from the Lakers) and a healthy Markelle Fultz to the fold, and Philly has an answer for the East's rising powers and represents a potential rival to the Rockets and Warriors—both immediately and into James' twilight.
No other team touts that open-ended window. That includes the Celtics. They would have to surrender at least one of their up-and-coming assets in potential trade scenarios.
The Sixers aren't subject to that level of collateral damage. They can bankroll James' max with a few simple cost-cutting moves: stretching Jerryd Bayless' expiring contract and getting cute with some of their lesser prospects or sweetening a Bayless salary dump using Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Richaun Holmes (team option) or their own first-rounder (No. 26).
Signing James also doesn't preclude the Sixers from aging up the roster to better align with his window. They'll retain the trade pieces to nab another star.
Perhaps things fall apart between the Spurs and Leonard. Maybe the Sixers engage Oklahoma City in sign-and-trade talks for George. They have that power. Offering a combination of Covington, Fultz, Saric, No. 10 and future firsts grants them entry into any sweepstakes the summer may bring.
Even the Sixers' search for a Bryan Colangelo replacement works in their favor. They're in no rush to fill the front office throne before free agency, per NBA.com's David Aldridge. James could join the franchise knowing he has a say in who gets hired. (Former Cavaliers general manager David Griffin, anyone?)
This should, in theory, be enough to award the Sixers pole position. But the fit remains weird. Simmons isn't fit to play off the ball beyond roll-man duty, and Embiid's efficiency off the catch cratered compared to 2016-17. Fultz's catch-and-fire chops are no longer a given after his jump shot drama. He'll need plenty of on-ball reps to establish himself.
Taking on more standstill possessions and screen-setting responsibilities should appeal to James. Eventually. The Sixers' roster will demand something closer to a wholesale evolution from him or its youngsters on an immediate basis. Talent tends to figure things out, but the degree to which everyone involved must adapt taints Philly's chances.
2. Cleveland Cavaliers
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Sticking with the Cavaliers and their lackluster supporting cast at times feels like James' least appealing option. He expended untenable amounts of energy to earn them an NBA Finals execution. Staying put invites more of the same.
Cleveland will maintain the NBA's worst salary-cap situation if James returns. Any improvement in free agency will need to come via the tax-payer's mid-level exception, worth all of $5.3 million. That might be within range of a James Ennis or Luc Mbah a Moute—much-needed fits who barely begin to bridge the solar system separating Cleveland and Golden State.
Beyond that, the Cavaliers have whoever they draft at No. 8, Cedi Osman, Ante Zizic and salary filler to try to broker a blockbuster trade. That's...not going to get them a George or Leonard or even a Khris Middleton.
It's also not nothing. And Kevin Love's expiring contract (player option) will hold value. The Cavaliers are not married to this nucleus. And if they run it back without tacking on long-term money, they'll have ways to join the free-agency fray in 2019.
Love should hit the open market unless something goes terribly wrong next season. The 2019-20 salaries for George Hill, Kyle Korver and JR Smith are only partially guaranteed for $1 million, $3.4 million and $3.9 million, respectively. Jordan Clarkson and Tristan Thompson will be more trade-friendly entering the final year of their deals.
The Lakers didn't receive a pass for hypothetically biding their time. The Cavaliers shouldn't either. But their one-year limbo comes with the promise of another NBA Finals chase. The Celtics and Sixers haven't yet displaced James from his championship-round treadmill.
Scrapping for Finals cameos as a stark underdog will get tired. It's already old. But while James isn't in the business of pandering to public perception, he cannot take the decision to jump ship a second time lightly. The Cavaliers' failures are his cover. He'll never be held less accountable for what goes wrong and when he comes up short.
Leaving Cleveland, and the Teflon GOAT-candidate bubble he's built around his legacy, only makes sense if he's identified a sure thing. That situation doesn't exist so long as the Warriors do, and the number of teams hawking something close it can be counted on your index finger.
1. Houston Rockets
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Joining the Rockets would be James' all-in-on-right-now play. They can't guarantee they'll be chasing titles through the next half-decade, but they give him the best shot at uncrowning the Warriors now and (probably) for another two or three years.
Fight the impulse to wonder whether Houston would have too many cooks in the kitchen. Those concerns deserved to be indulged at the onset of Paul and James Harden's partnership. They're toast now.
Head coach Mike D'Antoni found middle ground between Harden and Paul's games by leaning into the ostensible imbalance. He staggered minutes and permitted one-on-one attacks. Paul reinvented his shot profile—attempting threes more frequently than ever—but not his entire identity.
James can be an extension of the Rockets' isolation and pick-and-roll attack. Keeping Harden and Paul in check was difficult enough. Accounting for James on top of them would be impossible. They all hit enough of their threes to preserve space for drivers and rollers.
The lack of inventiveness will irk some, just as it did when the Rockets played the Warriors. But all three have the range to shoulder more off-ball usage if the circumstances call for creativity. Paul buried 41.1 percent of his standstill threes, Harden shot 14-of-15 on cuts to the basket and James as the roll man has long been an under-explored cheat code.
Getting James to Houston is the problem. Manufacturing the requisite cap space is out of the question without gargantuan discounts from him and Paul. Completing a sign-and-trade would hard-cap the Rockets, so that's basically out, too. Negotiating an opt-in-and-trade is their best bet.
Every scenario entails their having to find a new home for the two years and $41.7 million remaining on Ryan Anderson's contract. The Cavaliers are unlikely to burden themselves with that money to kick off the post-James era. Giving a team like the Atlanta Hawks two first-rounders to absorb the hit will be in play, but then the Rockets have next to nothing for Cleveland.
Again: The logistics aren't pretty. But if James wants to play in Houston beside Harden and Paul, it will happen.
General manager Daryl Morey no doubt already has a dozen workarounds meticulously mapped out and, perhaps, in place. And for good reason: James won't find a team outside Houston worth the immediate risk of leaving his legacy-sized security blanket in Cleveland.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com or Basketball Reference. Salary and cap-hold information via Basketball Insiders and RealGM.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale) and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by B/R's Andrew Bailey.
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