Stay Away! 1 Target Every Buyer Should Avoid at NBA Trade Deadline
During the NBA's season of fervent rumors and breathless speculation—well, at least the trade-deadline portion of the 24/7/365 sport's calendar—you'll inevitably see your favorite team linked to a handful of different potential acquisitions.
A few should inspire instant feelings of panic. They'll make you want to call the general manager and plead for him to see reason. They'll inspire you to break the glass case and push the big red button.
They're just bad fits.
These teams and players haven't necessarily been linked by official rumors with substantiated sources. But the players are likely all available, and the teams could be tempted into thinking they'd be beneficial acquisitions.
They wouldn't be.
Stay away. Stay far away.
Competitive but Not Buying
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Golden State Warriors
The Golden State Warriors pace the NBA in offensive rating by a significant margin and sit sixth in defensive rating. Their starting lineup is brimming over with star power, and their bench is a cohesive unit with talent and upside at every position.
Plus, head coach Steve Kerr and the culture of this organization have proved capable of making just about anyone work in their schemes. If you can think of a single player who'd wreck the Warriors' championship dreams upon landing in Golden State, please advise.
Houston Rockets
Where exactly do the Houston Rockets need to improve?
Chris Paul, James Harden, Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson and Clint Capela make for one helluva starting lineup, and they have top-tier backups like Eric Gordon and PJ Tucker. This is a deep team nearly devoid of exploitable weaknesses, and general manager Daryl Morey has already stated this could become the rare trade season in which he sits back and watches.
The Rockets have made a swap between the start of January and the trade deadline every year since 2003. But as Morey told Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle: "I don't expect to do much. There's outside-the-rotation stuff potentially. We're always looking for something to upgrade us. I would guess the odds of us doing nothing are much higher than normal."
Buying with No Concerns
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Minnesota Timberwolves
The Minnesota Timberwolves are on the verge of earning "contender" status in the Western Conference, as they're currently trailing only the Warriors, Rockets and San Antonio Spurs. They could make a wide variety of moves that would lead to future improvement, since they could use more defensive pieces or an explosive bench guard such as Lou Williams.
But the T-Wolves find themselves in an interesting spot.
They could go after big-name players at virtually any position. If a star becomes available and they can somehow acquire him, they should pull the trigger. They also need more bench pieces across the board, as finding go-to members of the second unit alongside Jamal Crawford would force head coach Tom Thibodeau to give his starters some much-needed rest.
Basically, everyone can work. Even if the 'Wolves wind up serving as buyers before the deadline, there's no name that should inspire panic among the fanbase.
San Antonio Spurs
See: Popovich, Gregg.
The San Antonio Spurs have teased high-quality production out of Rudy Gay when he's healthy. They've managed to overcome Pau Gasol's defensive deficiencies by building schemes that limit the need for any mobility from him. They've made LaMarcus Aldridge a featured piece and an All-Star shortly after he'd become so disgruntled that he requested a trade.
If any basketball player couldn't work in San Antonio, please alert the authorities. He shouldn't be in the NBA.
Boston Celtics: Tristan Thompson
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For the last few years, rebounding has been the Boston Celtics' Achilles' heel. Despite all the good Al Horford provides on both ends of the floor, his lackluster work on the boards is a distinct weakness, as it forces the C's to eschew some second-chance opportunities and allow the opposition to crash the offensive glass.
That's OK.
No team is perfect, and this weakness is easy to cover up through sheer excellence in other areas. Plus, the presence of Aron Baynes and motivated play from all smaller members of the Beantown roster has helped mitigate the ill effects of boasting a non-traditional center. The Celtics still rank No. 22 in offensive rebounding percentage (directly behind the Golden State Warriors), and they've climbed all the way to No. 12 in the defensive counterpart.
Could those numbers be better? Of course. The Celtics just shouldn't feel the need to address them by acquiring a rebounding specialist such as Tristan Thompson.
If Boston can land a player who provides a glass-eating boost without detracting from its efforts in other areas, it should pursue him without hesitation. But while head coach Brad Stevens could figure out how to mitigate the negatives associated with Thompson's spacing limitations, that's an unnecessary and detrimental challenge.
Thompson likely would be unplayable alongside Baynes, and his playing style doesn't fit with the Celtics' preferred schemes in 2017-18. They should stay far away, even if Cleveland makes him available for cheap in an attempt to rejigger their entire roster composition.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Marc Gasol
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The Cleveland Cavaliers are going to be tempted into doing something dramatic at the deadline.
They trail the Boston Celtics in the hunt for the Eastern Conference's No. 1 seed by a significant margin, Kevin Love has a fractured hand and could miss 6-8 weeks, and Cleveland is trending in the wrong direction. Not only does their season-long net rating (0.1) place them behind 14 of the NBA's 30 organizations, but they sit at No. 28 since the start of January. With a minus-6.5 net rating during the first month of 2018, they've proved superior to only the Brooklyn Nets (minus-6.6) and Phoenix Suns (minus-10.9).
The rotation has fundamental issues. It's different than previous iterations that could flip a switch during the playoffs, given the widespread defensive malfeasance, the complete lack of on-court chemistry and the icky feelings that currently seem to pervade the franchise from top to bottom.
The Cavs could be coaxed into parting with their No. 1 future asset—the Brooklyn Nets' unprotected 2018 first-round pick.
They shouldn't deal it, given the looming specter of LeBron James' upcoming free agency and the ever-increasing feeling he'll be looking to jump ship and escape the turmoil currently plaguing Northeast Ohio. They especially shouldn't part with it for Marc Gasol, who is finally showing his age for the Memphis Grizzlies.
Gasol might be able to jumpstart Cleveland's defense, injecting some effort into the rest of the Cavs with his impressive knack for positioning and ceaseless desire to assert himself as a rim protector. But he's a 33-year-old center having his least valuable season in quite some time, to the point that he objectively ranked behind seven other players when we looked at the top contributors likely to become available heading into this year's deadline.
Making a move for the Memphis Grizzlies big would be a shortsighted disaster.
Denver Nuggets: Lou Williams
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Lou Williams is having a phenomenal, All-Star-caliber season, even if he hasn't been selected to represent the Western Conference in the midseason festivities (much to his own chagrin). But that doesn't mean the Denver Nuggets, who may be in the market for ball-handling talent, should go after him.
The Philadelphia 76ers should pursue Williams. The Boston Celtics and Toronto Raptors could be interesting landing spots. He'd be fascinating on the Minnesota Timberwolves or Oklahoma City Thunder.
But he'd be a poor fit in the Mile High City.
Whichever team goes after the high-scoring guard needs to be capable of allocating massive numbers of possessions to his pick-and-roll proclivities, allowing him autonomy as he darts around screens and anticipates ICE responses. Should the Los Angeles Clippers move him in the wake of their blockbuster Blake Griffin trade, his new team also needs to be capable of covering up his defensive deficiencies.
The Nuggets can do neither of those tasks.
Thanks to the ball-handling and distributing excellence of Nikola Jokic, Denver runs unorthodox offensive schemes that rely on the creation abilities of its bigs. Dribble-handoffs and kick-outs from the post are the staples, and just 13.9 percent of the Nuggets' possessions feature a pick-and-roll ball-handler—the fifth-fewest throughout the league. Isolation isn't quite as anathema to their endeavors, but they still aren't inclined to clear out and give guards space too frequently.
Couple that with Denver's No. 22 placement in defensive rating—No. 18 since the start of January!—and it becomes increasingly clear the Nuggets aren't the right home for Williams. They should go after George Hill or Tyreke Evans if they covet another ball-handling guard, but paying the necessary ransom for Williams would be ill-advised.
Detroit Pistons: Rodney Hood
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The Detroit Pistons have been one of the league's most accurate three-point-shooting bunches in 2017-18, marking a drastic departure from their previous reputation as a squad starved for marksmanship. Only three teams—the Golden State Warriors, Sacramento Kings and Portland Trail Blazers—have been more accurate to date, although 17 have fired away more frequently.
Now, that status could be in jeopardy.
Gone in Monday night's blockbuster deal are Avery Bradley, Tobias Harris and Boban Marjanovic, who combined to take 10.6 triples per game and connected at a cumulative 39.8 percent clip. Coming back are Blake Griffin, Willie Reed and Brice Johnson, whose numbers stand at 5.8 and 34.2 percent, respectively.
That's over a third of Detroit's overall deep attempts heading out the door, as well as arguably the two best shooters—Anthony Tolliver, Reggie Bullock and Luke Kennard are the only other candidates, but they don't have the same level of volume. Naturally, they need more replacements, and Rodney Hood could initially seem capable of serving as a logical one.
"The Pistons might not be done making moves," The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor reported in the aftermath of the Griffin deal. "Multiple sources say that they are after Jazz guard Rodney Hood and could send out forward Stanley Johnson. Hood is another injury-prone player, but these are the types of calculated risks Van Gundy needs to take to save his job."
Hood is currently connecting on a career-best 38.6 percent of his treys while taking seven per game. But the manner in which he earns his buckets is problematic, since only 71.1 percent of the successful long-balls have come off an assist. In fact, he scores just 0.98 points per possession as a spot-up shooter, which leaves him in the 47th percentile.
Reggie Jackson and Ish Smith need the ball in their hands and can fill drive-and-kick roles. Griffin is a ball-dominant power forward. Andre Drummond has broken out in part due to his affinity for handling the rock and blossoming as a passer.
Even with their new desire for floor-spacers, the Pistons don't need someone like Hood, who struggles with catch-and-shoot responsibilities and would prefer to create for himself.
Milwaukee Bucks: Tyson Chandler
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The Milwaukee Bucks could use a center to pair with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Eric Bledsoe, since Thon Maker hasn't been up to snuff during what was supposed to be his breakout campaign. The 20-year-old big man has averaged just 4.6 points and 3.5 rebounds while slashing 39.6/31.7/68.3, and he's struggled to remain a consistent defensive presence.
If this team wants opponents to fear the deer, it needs an upgrade at the 5. DeAndre Jordan and Marc Gasol are both intriguing fits, and the Bucks could get creative by signing Andrew Bogut out of the free-agency pool. But they shouldn't make a move for Tyson Chandler.
The first reason is simple: cost.
As Adam Maynes wrote for Valley of the Suns, "Without packaging up a star with Chandler, it is exceedingly unlikely that the Bucks would be willing to part with Jabari Parker, Thon Maker, or Malcolm Brogdon, not to mention, Phoenix would have to take on at least one larger contract as well to make the return salaries at least get near $10M..."
But even if Milwaukee got past that hurdle, it still would be assuming Chandler's skills have endured. He's averaging 6.5 points and 9.7 rebounds in limited action for the Phoenix Suns while shooting 61.7 percent from the field, so that initially seems like a safe premise.
It isn't.
Chandler can still rebound and protect the rim with aplomb, but his offensive effectiveness has plummeted. He now sits in the 75th percentile for efficiency as a roll man—a sharp decline from the 95th percentile in 2016-17. He's also been less involved in the proceedings, checking in with the second-lowest usage rate of his career (only his 2005-06 campaign with the Chicago Bulls is lower).
The 35-year-old is even more of a specialist than he was in his younger days. Figuring out how to maximize his talents while covering up for his shortcomings isn't a challenge the Bucks need while congealing under an interim head coach.
New Orleans Pelicans: Greg Monroe
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The New Orleans Pelicans are reportedly close to shipping off a first-round pick and Omer Asik to the Chicago Bulls for Nikola Mirotic, according to NBC Sports Chicago's Vincent Goodwill. The sharpshooter would be a fantastic fit alongside Anthony Davis if the deal goes through—ESPN.com's Adrian Wojnarowski reported that it may be falling apart—but New Orleans still might not be done parsing the trade block and attempting to replace fallen superstar DeMarcus Cousins.
If that's the case, Greg Monroe will inevitably be linked to the Pelicans before the deadline passes.
The Georgetown product could be seen as a natural replacement for Cousins, who suffered a season-ending Achilles tear Friday. He's also a Louisiana native who was born just minutes outside of the New Orleans city limits. That convergence of factors is tough to find.
However, Monroe doesn't make sense with Davis and a roster that lacks depth, especially since the Pelicans would have to part with some of their shooters to match salaries and lure the big man away from the Phoenix Suns.
No one can step in and replace Cousins single-handedly, but Monroe doesn't play a similar style. He's more of a plodding center without Boogie's elite levels of athleticism and physicality. He doesn't have the same playmaking instincts that allow Cousins to serve as a secondary offensive hub, either.
Perhaps most important is that he also isn't capable of stepping out to the perimeter and draining jumpers:
- Cousins: 45 percent of his shots came from at least 10 feet in 2017-18
- Monroe: 6.5 percent of his shots come from at least 10 feet in 2017-18
Monroe can still be a quality player in the right situation, but New Orleans shouldn't feel tempted to continue its twin-tower approach with a big who plays an entirely different style. His profile isn't likely to work alongside Davis, and that's doubly true if the Pelicans would have to sacrifice a marksman like Darius Miller or E'Twaun Moore to facilitate the transaction.
New York Knicks: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
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Take it away, Stefan Bondy of the New York Daily News:
"As the Knicks plot out their future during this downtrending season, a particular mold of player remains a priority for the front office, according to sources: an athletic wing.
"One of that ilk who has piqued New York’s interest is Lakers forward Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who will be an unrestricted free agent in the summer. Caldwell-Pope certainly fits the ideal at just 24 years old with potential as an elite perimeter defender. He does carry some baggage, however, after serving a jail sentence this season for violating probation.
"Theoretically, that could help New York land the shooting guard if it drives down his price in free agency."
To be clear, the New York Knicks are only being thought of as buyers because, well, they're the New York Knicks.
They currently sit 3.0 games behind the Philadelphia 76ers for the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference and have been trending in the wrong direction since a hot start to the year. And yet, the New York media market and the franchise's constant desire for affirmation could drive it to sell off future pieces and make a push to end a playoff drought that extends back to 2013.
The Knicks shouldn't be buyers. They might be all the same.
If they're going to sell off pieces such as Kyle O'Quinn and Willy Hernangomez for help on the wings, that's fine. But they shouldn't get impatient and attempt to gain early access to a free-agency target such as Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who could potentially spurn them on the open market just a few months after a potential trade.
New York has a history of circuitous and strange paths to acquiring key contributors (see: Hardaway Jr., Tim). Don't fall for the trap this time, Knicks.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Courtney Lee
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Even leaving aside the luxury-tax ramifications that could come with acquiring Courtney Lee, who still has two more full seasons remaining on his four-year, $48 million contract, the three-and-D wing is a questionable fit on the Oklahoma City Thunder.
At first blush, that seems untrue. Not only would his defensive proclivities mesh well with the overall theme of this team, but his ability to knock down spot-up jumpers and connect on a high percentage of his triples would seem to make him a valuable presence alongside Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Steven Adams and Carmelo Anthony.
Just one problem: OKC would acquire Lee to serve as an Andre Roberson replacement after the fringe Defensive Player of the Year candidate suffered a season-ending ruptured patellar tendon Saturday. That would be a tough role for the 32-year-old.
Roberson is a massive wing who played power forward during his Colorado days. Lee checks in two inches and 10 pounds shy of the 6'7", 210-pound man he'd be replacing in this hypothetical, but he also significantly trails Roberson in the physicality department. He isn't used to checking bigger guards and forwards like the injured swingman so often does, which means he'd either struggle to handle his responsibilities or pass them off to another member of the Thunder.
Either way, the Thunder could be in for some tough adjustments in this scenario. And tough adjustments aren't what you want when likely parting with the high-upside Terrance Ferguson, who would have to stand in for the first-round picks New York would inevitably covet and Oklahoma City couldn't provide by virtue of owing away two selections through 2020.
Philadelphia 76ers: George Hill
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The Philadelphia 76ers are many things: young, talented, exciting, promising, you name it.
But up to this point in their playoff push, they've made their living on defense. With Joel Embiid protecting the paint and a bunch of lanky athletes switching every screen, universally able to guard point guards, shooting guards, small forwards and power forwards, they've snuffed the life out of many different attacks. The Sixers rank No. 4 in defensive rating on the year.
Unfortunately, their offense lags behind the efficiency posted by 13 other squads.
Part of the issue stems from turnovers, which is natural for any young team. But Philadelphia also has a dearth of players who can create for themselves as perimeter ball-handlers. JJ Redick and Robert Covington are fantastic shooters, but they rely on set-up feeds. Cough-ups plague Embiid when he puts the ball on the floor, and he's currently best as a face-up attacker or a dominant post presence. Ben Simmons can get to the basket seemingly at will, but his shooting limitations are still troubling for the overall offensive schemes.
Jerryd Bayless was supposed to fill this role, but he's struggled with his shot throughout the year and has had trouble moving the ball in head coach Brett Brown's offense. And No. 1 overall pick Markelle Fultz remains sidelined with a mysterious shoulder ailment that sapped his shooting effectiveness.
A shot-creating presence is needed, but the Sixers have to be careful. Lou Williams would be a dynamic threat, worthy of rostering this season and beyond. Ditto for Tyreke Evans, though both would require new contracts this summer.
But dealing for an older point guard with a declining game would be nonsensical, even if he could help fill an immediate need. Yes, we're talking about 31-year-old George Hill, who has struggled immensely during his brief tenure with the Sacramento Kings and accepted a more passive role.
Even if Hill could bounce back in a new location and is in the midst of a career season from beyond the arc, he doesn't fit the developmental timetable of this organization. The Sixers aren't going to compete for a title this year, and this floor general is already trending away from the realm of legitimate starters.
Washington Wizards: Backup Guard
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Yes, we're cheating.
But the Washington Wizards shouldn't stay away from one specific player, so much as they should avoid an entire category of basketballers. Even with John Wall undergoing surgery that's going to knock him out of action for around six weeks, as Candace Buckner of the Washington Post reported Tuesday, they don't need to pursue another guard.
Instead of seeking to replace the All-Star floor general with someone like Devin Harris, they should just bide their time and trust Tomas Satoransky to handle an increased role. Not only do they have more pressing long-term needs and limited assets with which they can part, but this team isn't in position to make a run at anything special in 2017-18.
While the Wizards currently sit fifth in the Eastern Conference, they're only outscoring opponents by 1.5 points per 100 possessions and are about to embark on a brutal schedule. As ESPN.com's Zach Lowe tweeted in response to news of Wall's injury, "16 of Washington's next 20 games are against teams currently in the playoffs."
Given Washington's limited assets (unless it wants to part with Kelly Oubre Jr.), it can't land a player capable of helping it survive this onslaught of high-level competition, especially without Wall in action. The far better play is taking the long-term approach and preserving assets while letting Satoransky develop against a tough slate. The second-year guard, after all, is averaging 10.6 points, 4.9 rebounds and 5.8 assists per 36 minutes while shooting 49.3 percent from the field and 40.9 percent from downtown.
Plus, there's one more fun fact.
Per PBPStats.com, the Wizards have produced a 6.5 net rating when Satoransky and Bradley Beal share the court without Wall this season. With Wall and Beal on the floor but no Satoransky, the net rating is 6.1.
Maybe they can survive this absence after all.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats from Basketball Reference, NBA.com, NBA Math or ESPN.com and are current heading into games on Jan. 31.
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