Playing Keep or Trade with Every Lottery Pick in 2016 NBA Draft
To borrow (and reconstruct) a quote from Saw: Let's play a game—an NBA draft game.
Between now and the June 23 selection soiree, the Association's rumor mill will reach its boiling point. Any hoops head worth their salt will be following along, waiting to see which, if any, teams trade their coveted first-round picks (sorry, New York basketball fans).
Lottery squads present the most intriguing hypotheticals. Selections that fall within the top 14 can be flipped for something or someone of value. We, in turn, will decide whether these teams should keep or trade their shiny choices.
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Justification for our decisions will vary. Certain teams can't afford to move their selection. Others are too far along in the rebuilding process to keep them. A few franchises already have an overcrowded depth chart. Rumors will also play a part in shaping the results, but they aren't everything. Draft position, available prospects and team needs matter most.
No. 14: Chicago Bulls
Verdict: Keep
The Chicago Bulls will get more out of this pick by standing pat. Attaching it to assets like Doug McDermott, Nikola Mirotic and Taj Gibson won't be enough to land an established impact player or vault up the draft board, and Chicago should be amassing picks and prospects, not dealing them away, after missing the playoffs.
Rebuilding not one year after looking like the Cleveland Cavaliers' greatest Eastern Conference threat is a tough pill to swallow, but there's no better time to hit the reset button. Pau Gasol (player option) and Joakim Noah can leave (by choice or team decision) in free agency, and Derrick Rose has just one year left on his deal.
Jimmy Butler's Chicago future needn't play a role in the team's thought process. The Boston Celtics and Minnesota Timberwolves are pining after his services, according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein and Chad Ford, so the uncertainty is real. Neither trading him nor keeping him, though, negates the need for asset-accumulation mode.
Stars aren't typically found this late in the draft, but Chicago will have the chance to fill second-unit holes. Washington's Dejounte Murray would make for an interesting backup point guard, while Gonzaga's high-motor Domantas Sabonis is a defensive face-lift away from being the ideal 4-5 in head coach Fred Hoiberg's offense.
No. 13: Phoenix Suns
Verdict: Trade
With three first-round picks in the treasure chest—two of them falling inside the lottery—the Phoenix Suns should look to sell off their lower-end selections. There aren't any NBA-ready wings or stretch bigs for them to take outside the top 10, and they're already set on the guard and traditional-big fronts.
As one of the league's foremost authorities on gray-area rebuilding, there are a few different routes the Suns can take. If chasing a playoff berth remains the goal, packaging Eric Bledsoe or Brandon Knight with the 13th and 28th picks will get them in the conversation for a higher-end wing (Butler) or floor-spacing big (Kevin Love).
Phoenix can also try offloading the remaining three years and $39 million on Tyson Chandler's contract. Moving him frees up even more cap space, and the front office made it clear last summer, after pursuing LaMarcus Aldridge, that it won't shy from courting big-name free agents.
If finally delving deep into a rebuild is the play, (as it should be), the Suns have the incentive to try moving up. There are teams in the top seven, such as the Celtics (third overall), Denver Nuggets (seventh) and New Orleans Pelicans (sixth), that might pounce on a proposal built around Bledsoe or Knight and No. 13.
Regardless, ownership of the fourth pick gives them the impetus to aggressively shop all their other selections.
No. 12: Utah Jazz
Verdict: Keep
The Utah Jazz? Trade a lottery pick? Not happening.
Except Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders hears it might:
Flipping the 12th slot only makes sense as part of a blockbuster deal—a trade that sees the Jazz parlaying someone like Derrick Favors or Gordon Hayward or Alec Burks into another fringe star (Khris Middleton?). But that apparently isn't an option:
Five of Utah's six most-used lineups this past season performed like a high-seeded playoff team. If a roster-rattling shakeup isn't in the cards, it's best to ride out the current core with the expectation that Dante Exum's return, Trey Lyles' development and the No. 12 pick propels the Jazz back to the playoffs.
No. 11: Orlando Magic
Verdict: Trade
It sounds like the Orlando Magic are done with the lottery carousel they have been riding since trading Dwight Howard in 2012. As general manager Rob Hennigan said at season's end, per Magic.com's John Denton:
"We feel like we need to add experience to the team and that’s something that I’ve said throughout the season. It’s something as the season played out we’ve been able to pinpoint that we do need some of that experience to stabilize us. Part of our strategy as we move into the summer is to pinpoint Plan As, Plan Bs and certain contingencies – all within the vain of trying to bring in experience to the team. We think that with the nucleus that we have, with a few veteran pieces that we’ll be well-positioned for the postseason.
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The Magic are almost as well-positioned as anyone to pull the trigger on a blockbuster trade. They have plenty of young assets in Aaron Gordon, Victor Oladipo, Elfrid Payton and Nikola Vucevic to partner with the No. 11 pick. Using Ersan Ilyasova's non-guaranteed deal to sweeten the pot only drives up the curb appeal of their best offer.
With the exception of Gordon, there isn't anyone the Magic should deem indispensable. Oladipo and Payton overlap in many ways; Gordon can soak up the minutes at center that Vucevic leaves behind; and Mario Hezonja is instantly replaced by re-signing restricted free agent Evan Fournier.
Though Orlando will enjoy more than $25 million in cap space if it ditches Brandon Jennings' hold, it cannot bank on being a hot free-agent landing spot. Scouring the trade market for potentially available stars (Butler, Blake Griffin, Love), with the No. 11 pick as part of the bait, is a more effective means of improvement.
No. 10: Milwaukee Bucks
Verdict: Keep
Reading too much into a surprising 2014-15 playoff bid proved to be a mistake. The Bucks invested in Greg Monroe, hoping to beef up the offense. All that did was provide the blueprint for the demise of their defense.
Milwaukee is expected to dangle Monroe in trade talks over the summer, according to Gery Woelfel of the Racine Journal Times. The goal should be to collect picks and prospects as part of any return—to actually begin rebuilding around Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker.
Identical logic applies to this pick. There isn't a team inside the top five that would take Monroe and No. 10 as compensation for its own selection. Unless the Bucks want to sling Antetokounmpo, Middleton or Parker, their odds of moving up are slim to nonexistent.
And no player of consequence can be had with the 10th choice alone. So Milwaukee might as well sit tight and use this selection to grab another point guard (Vanderbilt's Wade Baldwin) or hope a high-value wing (California's Jaylen Brown or Kentucky's Jamal Murray) plummets down the board.
No. 9 Toronto Raptors
Verdict: Trade
Even if DeMar DeRozan gets overpaid by the Los Angeles Lakers leaves in free agency, the Toronto Raptors have every reason to shop the No. 9 pick. And for the record, DeRozan doesn't seem like he's ready to bolt. As Raptors specialist Kevin Rashidi relayed:
Retaining DeRozan only increases the need to use the ninth slot as trade fodder. Toronto just wrapped up the best season in franchise history, earning second place in the Leastern Eastern Conference and coming within two wins of an NBA Finals cameo. Now that the 2015-16 honeymoon is over, general manager Masai Ujiri's focus turns to figuring out how to unseat the Cavaliers.
Offering some combination of Patrick Patterson, Terrence Ross and Jonas Valanciunas, in addition to the ninth and 27th choices, should be enough to put the Raptors in play for any available wings or stretchy bigs.
Do the Denver Nuggets hang up the phone if Toronto is peddling No. 9 and Ross as fundamental framework for a Danilo Gallinari deal? Does Patterson, Ross and Nos. 9 and 27 give the Jazz enough cause to part with Favors?
After sniffing the NBA Finals, even if superficially so, those are the types of impact players on which the Raptors must set their sights. They have enough young talent for a contending team in Bruno Caboclo, Norman Powell and Lucas Nogueira, and using the ninth pick to replace free agent goner Bismack Biyombo, while not unreasonable, doesn't move the needle.
No. 8: Sacramento Kings
Verdict: Keep
New logos. New jerseys. New version of the Sacramento Kings?
The jury is still out on that last one. The old Kings would surely explore dealing the No. 8 pick in exchange for a player—or players—who make it easier for them to end a decade-long playoff drought. But that's not the smart play.
Gunning for a bottom-two postseason seed is never a shrewd course of action. The Kings bent over backward trying just that this past season, dumping Nik Stauskas and other first-round goodies, and still failed to win 35 games for the eighth consecutive year.
Sacramento badly needs a home run in this draft—a legitimate building block. Despite routinely finishing with one of the league's 10 worst records, DeMarcus Cousins is the team's last real success story. And he was selected in 2010.
Biyombo (seventh pick in 2011) was promptly shipped to the then-Charlotte Bobcats as part of a three-team trade that gave the Kings...Jimmer Fredette and John Salmons. Thomas Robinson (fifth in 2012) flopped in a big way. Ben McLemore (seventh in 2013) is not the next Ray Allen—or even the next Eric Gordon. Stauskas (eighth in 2014) is now missing shots for the Philadelphia 76ers.
Willie Cauley-Stein (sixth in 2015), though a defensive stud, plays the same position as Cousins.
Sitting at No. 8 this year gives the Kings a shot at Brown (bouncy wing), Washington's Marquese Chriss (stretch 4), Providence's Kris Dunn (point guard upgrade), Marquette's Henry Ellenson (possible stretch 4) or Murray (three-and-D weapon). Any of these prospects covers an immediate need.
If the Kings are looking to make trades, it should be with the goal of unloading Marco Belinelli, Darren Collison, Rudy Gay, Kosta Koufos, et al. in return for picks, prospects and cap space.
No. 7: Denver Nuggets
Verdict: Trade
To fully understand why the Nuggets must prioritize trading the seventh selection, we turn to Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal:
"The frontcourt is especially crowded, with Kenneth Faried, Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic and Joffrey Lauvergne all fighting for big minutes. Playing time was already difficult to divvy out this season, and that was without a healthy Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari missing plenty of action.
Denver needs a star, and it should float plenty of different combinations to try acquiring one. It might be painful to part with some homegrown talents, but two-for-one deals have to be the priority in the Mile High City—both to increase the level of star power and to open up rotation slots for newer players with more upside.
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This isn't the only pick the Nuggets hold, remember. They are in possession of the 15th and 19th slots as well, and there just isn't room on the depth chart for that much burgeoning firepower:
| Emmanuel Mudiay | Gary Harris | Danilo Gallinari | Kenneth Faried | Nikola Jokic |
| Jameer Nelson | Will Barton | Wilson Chandler | Darrell Arthur (player option) | Jusuf Nurkic |
| Joffrey Lauvergne |
Everyone except Darrell Arthur, who could leave via free agency, and Jameer Nelson has a case for extensive playing time. And Denver's rotation is clogged further by the need to capitalize on spacier lineups that feature Chandler or Gallinari at the 4, with Will Barton playing beside Gary Harris at small forward.
Climbing up the draft-day ladder doesn't help the situation, since there is a clear drop-off after the top two. Barring an unlikely trade with the Los Angeles Lakers or Sixers, the Nuggets shouldn't consolidate selections or incumbent talent for a higher spot.
That leaves them to surf the superstar trade market. Another multi-position wing who comes at the expense of some picks and frontcourt depth does a world of good. And fortunately for the Nuggets, if guys like Butler or Middleton do become available, they have more than enough in their war chest to snag a seat at the negotiating table.
No. 6: New Orleans Pelicans
Verdict: Keep
Do. Not. Trade. Or. Even. Shop. The. Sixth. Pick.
The Pelicans have been down this road before, trying to accelerate their rebuild to accommodate Anthony Davis' world-takeover tour. They gave Nerlens Noel and what became the 10th pick in 2014—Elfrid Payton, who was dealt for No. 12 choice Dario Saric—to the Sixers for Jrue Holiday. They traded a first-round selection to land Omer Asik. And then, last summer, they proceeded to sign Asik for five years and $58 million.
This brand of ambition has landed the Pelicans nowhere, treading water and set back a few years. Winning just 30 games in 2015-16 needs to be their wake-up call.
It's time to start organically retooling around Davis. Let Tyreke Evans' and Holiday's contracts expire in 2017. Eat Asik's salary until you find a taker—or unless one of Evans and Holiday can somehow be used to grease the wheels of a salary dump.
Most importantly, keep your picks. Enough top prospects will be there at No. 6: Oklahoma's Buddy Hield. Croatia's Dragan Bender. Brown. Chriss. Dunn. Murray. The Pelicans will not want for options—which is good, if only because they also won't want for gaping holes to plug.
No. 5: Minnesota Timberwolves
Verdict: Keep
Baiting the Bulls into a Butler trade with the No. 5 pick isn't the worst idea for Minnesota. The roster bears a striking resemblance to Denver's: It has few needs, and you can make a case the Timberwolves have a long-term contributor at every position.
Still, if the cost is right, Butler fits. He will turn just 27 in September, immediately strengthens a perimeter defense that ranked 27th in points allowed per 100 possessions and is a contractual steal in the new cap climate, per Bleacher Report's Sean Highkin:
Not surprisingly, the cost for Butler isn't right—not for the Timberwolves. As ESPN 1500's Darren Wolfson found:
Zach LaVine should be a deal breaker in any Butler trade, so Minnesota's coach and president Tom Thibodeau shouldn't even be answering his phone if Chicago is after Andrew Wiggins.
In the event the Bulls soften their stance and accept a package built around Gorgui Dieng, Shabazz Muhammad and the No. 5 pick, the Timberwolves can move forward. Anything more and it's time to board the Brown, Chriss or Murray bandwagon instead.
No. 4: Phoenix Suns
Verdict: Keep
While the Suns can pair their point guard excess with the No. 4 pick to enter the superstar-trade sweepstakes, there isn't a player out there worth such a steep price. Phoenix needs someone on Kevin Durant's level to morph into anything of note in the top-heavy Western Conference.
Besides, the Suns should use Bledsoe or Knight and their other two first-rounders to run down headlining upgrades. The No. 4 pick is a chance for them, a 23-win squad, to land another cornerstone.
This draft is often painted as a two-prospect pageant, with little to no star power beyond Brandon Ingram and Ben Simmons. But the Suns can bet on major upside while solving their stretch-big problem with a player like Bender or Chriss. They might even try turning the 6'7" Brown into a guard-everyone forward.
Each of these experiments is worth more to Phoenix's future than any realistic trade.
No. 3: Boston Celtics
Verdict: Trade
Few upstart units have the license to hasten their rebuilding projects. Most are better off waiting for the title windows of the Cavaliers, Golden State Warriors, Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs to beat one another into extinction.
But the Celtics are an exception. They are far enough into their overhaul that they aren't a transitioning team anymore. They just tied for the East's third-best record and play a style of basketball reserved exclusively for elite squads. Here's the list of every team this season to finish in the top 13 of offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency and pace:
- Golden State Warriors
- Oklahoma City Thunder
- Boston Celtics
Assuming Ingram and Simmons are off the board at No. 3, drafting a Bender or Hield won't help Boston as much as Butler. The Celtics can piece together a better offer for him than the Timberwolves. They have two other firsts (Nos. 16 and 23), the Brooklyn Nets' 2018 pick and a host of reasonably priced contracts (Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, etc.) at their disposal.
The Celtics aren't strictly chained to the Butler rumor mill either; They have enough assets to construct an offer for anyone who hits the chopping block. They may already be preparing to make a run at Kevin Love, per RealGM's Andrew Perna:
Yes, the Celtics have the means to manufacture max cap space over the summer and could limit their superstar pursuits to free agency. But as a team ostensibly on the cusp of the championship circle, Boston is officially above draft-night roulette.
There is more value in consolidating picks and prospects into a bona fide star.
No. 2: Los Angeles Lakers
Verdict: Keep (with a massive asterisk)
This is an easy "keep" decision—much like the Lakers' non-choice on draft night. They are sitting pretty at No. 2. All they have to do is pick whomever the Sixers leave behind: Ingram or Simmons, both of whom are perfect fits for the roster.
There is only one long-shot scenario in which the Lakers should actively look to forfeit this year's selection. It comes courtesy of The Ringer's Bill Simmons:
Paul George is quite the fortunes-turner. But even if the Indiana Pacers are willing to move him (they aren't), the second pick won't do the job on its own. And the Lakers don't have many other assets, aside from D'Angelo Russell and, to a much lesser extent, Julius Randle.
Is George worth Los Angeles trading its entire foundation when general manager Mitch Kupchak can conjure two max-contract slots ahead of free agency? Debatable at best. But the Lakers won't have to answer these questions anyway.
That means they shouldn't even be entertaining the idea of a trade, period.
No. 1: Philadelphia 76ers
Verdict: Keep
Simmons will not be working out for the Sixers before the draft.
What does this mean? Absolutely nothing. He isn't working out for anyone, and Philadelphia still plans on taking him with the first pick, per Philly.com's Keith Pompey.
Now, Simmons is overkill in so many ways. If Saric comes stateside next season, the Sixers will have five top-10 prospects who stand 6'10" or taller: Joel Embiid, Nerlens Noel, Jahlil Okafor, Saric and Simmons.
But that logjam isn't begging team president Bryan Colangelo to deal the No. 1 pick. Maybe the Sixers go with Ingram, a combo forward who poses a more seamless fit. Or, more likely, maybe they trade their surrounding surplus: Noel and Okafor are both available, according to Ford and Stein.
Under no circumstances, though, should the Sixers trade—or even think about moving—this selection. No one or two established players can help them that much. Philadelphia is too far gone to do anything other than tether its future to Ingram or Simmons.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com, unless otherwise cited. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @danfavale.
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