Final Win-Loss Predictions for New England Patriots' 2017 Schedule
The 2017 NFL season has arrived. For the New England Patriots, of course, this means it's time to chase another Super Bowl title—potentially the team's third in four years.
Before the Patriots can win Super Bowl LII, though, they have to make it to the extravaganza at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. This means first navigating 16 games and 13 opponents during the regular season in order to reach the playoffs. Expectations are high, of course, and there has even been some swirling chatter that the Patriots could go 16-0.
After all, this is a team that just won the Super Bowl and arguably got better in the offseason. Even with Julian Edelman lost for the season, additions like Brandin Cooks, Dwayne Allen, Mike Gillislee and Stephon Gilmore help forge a roster that certainly appears championship-worthy.
How do we think New England will fare now that the offseason and preseason are in the books? To find out, let's take a game-by-game look at the team's entire 2017 schedule and make predictions for each contest.
Week 1: Vs. Kansas City Chiefs
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The Patriots open the season against the Kansas City Chiefs, a team that earned a first-round bye and came within a few plays of reaching the AFC title game in 2017. Make no mistake, Kansas City presents a real challenge for New England.
The Chiefs have a defense capable of producing game-changing plays. They also have a poised, experienced quarterback in Alex Smith and a collection of dangerous offensive weapons. Kareem Hunt appears capable of holding down the starting running back role. Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are explosive downfield targets.
The challenge is the Chiefs defense can potentially keep the game close. A big play or two offensively could shift the contest in favor of Kansas City.
Still, this is the season opener. In New England. In front of a national audience on Thursday Night Football. Under the Patriots' brand-new Super Bowl banner. Even against a challenging opponent, the Patriots should roll to victory.
Prediction: Win 34-23
Week 2: At New Orleans Saints
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While the Chiefs represent a complete team, the Saints could be challenging because of their top-tier offense. Drew Brees is one of the few quarterbacks realistically capable of matching Tom Brady on a play-for-play basis. The new-look backfield consisting of Adrian Peterson, Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara gives New Orleans a new dimension.
Defensively, the Patriots should be better than they were a year ago. That's good, because New Orleans ranked 31st in scoring defense in 2016, allowing 28.4 points per game.
Even if the Saints defense is heavily improved, New England holds the defensive edge in this contest. Unless Brees decidedly outduels Brady or the Saints are able to control the game on the ground, New England should have little trouble pulling away late.
Prediction: Win 38-27
Week 3: Vs. Houston Texans
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The last time the Houston Texans and the Patriots faced off in a meaningful game, Brock Osweiler was under center for Houston. Interestingly, he'd beaten New England before as a Denver Bronco in 2015. However, by the time he met the Patriots in the postseason last year, folks were ready to run him out of Houston.
Well, Osweiler is long gone—the Texans parted with a second-round draft pick to make sure of it. If the Texans are a better team without him, the Patriots are going to know it in Week 3.
While Houston might indeed be a more efficient team with Tom Savage under center, the Patriots should cruise through this contest. New England dominated the same matchup almost exactly a year ago with Jacoby Brissett under center. This might not be another 27-0 shutout, but the Patriots should coast.
Prediction: Win 27-10
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Week 4: Vs. Carolina Panthers
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The Carolina Panthers were in the Super Bowl just two seasons ago. They were embarrassed in that game by the Broncos, but that doesn't mean the Panthers weren't a worthy participant.
Rarely does a team make it to the Super Bowl by accident. Carolina may have had a down year in 2016, but the Panthers are still very much a dangerous opponent. They have a solid defense and enough offensive pieces—like Kelvin Benjamin, Greg Olsen and rookie Christian McCaffrey—to threaten a top-tier team like New England.
The question for Carolina in the preseason has been whether quarterback Cam Newton, who underwent shoulder surgery in the offseason, would be ready to go from Week 1.
"I think Cam is ready," Panthers head coach Ron Rivera said, via the team's official website.
Even with a 100 percent Cam, the Panthers won't have enough to beat New England in Foxborough, Massachusetts.
Prediction: Win 30-20
Week 5: At Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers should be a borderline playoff team in 2017. They have a budding franchise quarterback, plenty of offensive weapons—like DeSean Jackson, Mike Evans and rookie O.J. Howard—and an underrated defense.
However, Tampa isn't a seasoned, veteran bunch. While the Buccaneers are beginning to understand what it takes to win, they're not used to winning against an intimidating opponent like New England. If this comes down to a duel between Brady and Jameis Winston, Brady won't be the one making mistakes.
The Buccaneers have the talent to challenge the Patriots. They don't have the drive and tenacity to see the challenge through. This should be a competitive game but one that New England pulls away.
Prediction: Win 35-23
Week 6: At New York Jets
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The New York Jets haven't had the talent or the psychological edge needed to consistently threaten the Patriots since the early days of the Rex Ryan era. Ryan is long gone from the Jets and the AFC East, and this is a far different Jets team.
Let's not get this twisted. New York isn't going to be a pushover in 2017. As long as Josh McCown can stay healthy—admittedly a big question mark—the Jets offense should be serviceable. The Jets defense should be one of the better units in football.
While the Jets are likely to win a couple of upsets this year, they aren't likely to shock the Patriots. New England is built to compete with the elite teams of the NFL. The Jets are merely an underrated, rebuilding franchise.
The Patriots won't overlook New York.
Prediction: Win 41-21
Week 7: Vs. Atlanta Falcons
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Talk about a big game. In Week 7, New England will host the team it beat in Super Bowl LI. New England won that game, despite being down 28-3 at one point, and if you think the Patriots are going to let the Falcons forget it, you're wrong.
There's likely to be a psychological aspect to this game. The Falcons are one of the most talented teams in the NFL. They have a revamped defense that is even better than it was a year ago. Atlanta clearly has one of the top offenses in the league.
What the Falcons don't have is an assurance that they can step on the throat and put down the Patriots even with a huge lead. Atlanta is a team that can beat the Patriots—and it's a team that will be looking for revenge. Unfortunately, Atlanta isn't a team that knows it can beat the Patriots.
If this game were in Atlanta, the Falcons would have the edge. In Foxborough, however, New England should be able to emerge from a heated contest victorious.
Prediction: Win 30-28
Week 8: Vs. San Diego Chargers
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One can never fully count out Philip Rivers and the Los Angeles Chargers. Rivers may not be held in the same conversation with 2014 draft classmates Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning, yet he's still a top-tier quarterback with talent around him.
L.A. can make this game competitive. However, the Chargers would have a much better chance of actually winning this game if the Patriots were forced to travel to the West Coast. Instead, the Chargers are traveling east against one of the league's premier teams in what is an early kickoff for them at 1 p.m. ET.
This isn't exactly fair to the Chargers.
Prediction: Win 41-24
Week 10: At Denver Broncos
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Not too many teams give the Patriots problems the way the Denver Broncos do. With a top-shelf defense, quality offensive skill players and a decided home-field advantage, the Broncos have what it takes to knock off New England.
Just look to the AFC Championship Game from 2015 for proof. Denver really is a team that can give New England everything it can handle.
The difference in this matchup can be found at quarterback. While the Broncos had enough of a defensive edge to win at home with poor quarterback play a couple years ago, that edge has vanished. The Patriots, who allowed an NFL-low 15.6 points per game in 2016, now have an elite defense of their own.
With equally dominant defenses on the board, the team with the best signal-caller gets the edge. This isn't meant as a knock against Trevor Siemian, who is progressing well as an NFL starter. Siemian has a long way to go to match Brady, though.
The Patriots, who will be coming off their bye week, grinded out a 16-3 victory in Denver last season. This year's rematch should produce a similar result.
Prediction: Win 23-10
Week 11: At Oakland Raiders (in Mexico City)
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The Oakland Raiders are one of the few teams in the AFC that can match New England's firepower. With Derek Carr healthy and under center—and with weapons like Michael Crabtree, Amari Cooper and Marshawn Lynch at his disposal—the Raiders can match points with anyone.
The discrepancy in this matchup comes on defense. New England has one of the best defenses in the league, while Oakland has one of the worst. As a team, the Raiders allowed 375.1 yards per game last season, seventh-most.
Carr and the Raiders offense are perfectly capable of engaging Brady and Co. in an offensive duel. However, the Patriots are likely to stop Carr and the Oakland offense far more often than the Raiders are going to stop their counterparts.
Plus, the Raiders don't even have the advantage of hosting New England on a cross-country excursion. Both teams will be on the road in Mexico City for this one.
Prediction: Win 41-31
Week 12: Vs. Miami Dolphins
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The Miami Dolphins have a good football team. They really do. Miami made the postseason in 2016 and may have made a run if Ryan Tannehill hadn't been knocked out of the lineup by injury.
Tannehill isn't in the lineup this year, but Dolphins head coach Adam Gase has drawn the perfect replacement in Jay Cutler. The 34-year-old is a strong-armed quarterback who knows Gase's offense from Chicago and can take advantage of targets like Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills, Julius Thomas and DeVante Parker.
With Jay Ajayi at running back, Miami has a complete offense. Unfortunately, the Dolphins don't have the top-tier defense needed to stonewall the Patriots. This should be a hotly contested game, but in Foxborough, the Patriots have the edge.
Prediction: Win 44-33
Week 13: At Buffalo Bills
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The Buffalo Bills are a team in transition this year. The Bills have a new head coach in Sean McDermott and are struggling with a decision at the quarterback position. Tyrod Taylor is presumably the starter, but he's in the concussion protocol and will likely be replaced in Week 1 by rookie Nathan Peterman.
"He is ready," McDermott said of Peterman, per Matthew Fairburn of NewYorkUpstate.com. "When you look at what he's done throughout the preseason. I'm confident and we’re extremely confident in Nathan."
By the time Week 13 rolls around, the Bills could be in full-blown panic mode. McDermott shouldn't be on the hot seat yet, but there could be a tangible quarterback controversy brewing. Regardless of those situations, the Bills are a rebuilding team that just isn't in the same class as New England.
Expect this game to be competitive for a bit, especially being in Buffalo, but also expect the Patriots to pull away in the second half.
Prediction: Win 44-28
Week 14: At Miami Dolphins
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While the Patriots should be able to handle the Dolphins at home, they may have more trouble doing so at Hard Rock Stadium. As we previously mentioned, Miami is a solid team—one with enough offensive and defensive talent to test New England.
Playing in Miami doesn't always suit the Patriots well either. In fact, New England has lost three of its last four games in Miami. Assuming Cutler is still healthy and under center at this point in the season, the Dolphins may have enough to squeak out a home victory here.
The Patriots are typically dominant within the AFC East. Yet, they've struggled in Miami over the past few years and will likely do so again in 2017. Believe it or not, this will turn into a positive, as the Patriots will no longer have the talk of a perfect season as a distraction to another playoff run.
Prediction: Loss 28-24
Week 15: At Pittsburgh Steelers
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With both teams being regular playoff participants, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Patriots are quite familiar with one another. However, the Patriots have dominated the relationship in recent years. The last time the Steelers earned a victory over New England was during the 2011 season.
There are a couple of reasons for New England's dominance in this rivalry. The biggest, though, is Pittsburgh's zone-based defense. While it works just fine against some of the lesser quarterbacks in the league, Brady has been able to shred Pittsburgh's zone schemes with regularity. Just look at last year's 36-17 victory in the AFC title game for confirmation.
The Steelers, however, are trying to move toward more of a man-coverage defense—possibly with the thought of slowing Brady as a primary reason. The team added Coty Sensabaugh and Joe Haden to the secondary this offseason with this game plan in mind.
While Pittsburgh's new-look defense may not be able to consistently stop the Patriots, it may just do enough to steal a late-season home victory. This will be the third road game in a row for New England, sandwiched between five division games. That's not easy.
The good news for the Patriots is that they'll know exactly what to expect should these two teams meet again in the playoffs.
Prediction: Loss 33-31
Week 16: Vs. Buffalo Bills
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The Bills are going to know exactly what they are by this point in the season. Unless something unforeseen occurs, they aren't likely to be a team contending for a playoff spot.
Will Buffalo be a pushover in Week 16? Certainly not. However, the Patriots will be eyeing home-field advantage for the postseason and will have something to play for in this game. Coming off two consecutive losses and playing at home will give New England added motivation.
Expect the Patriots to dominate and to make Buffalo look like a far worse team than it actually is.
Prediction: Win 41-13
Week 17: Vs. New York Jets
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The Patriots will have very little to play for against the Jets in Week 17. Aside from possibly earning a top pick in the 2018 draft, however, the Jets will have even less to play for.
Even if the Patriots rest their starters for part of this game, Bill Belichick is likely to play them in order to prevent rust. Two quarters of Brady and the No. 1s should be enough to give New England one last regular-season victory.
Prediction: Win 24-17
Season Prediction: 14-2
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