Best Landing Spots for Top Free Agents Not Headed to NBA Playoffs

Admit it: You're longing for a legitimate way to rap about NBA players who won't be partaking in the postseason festivities. 

Well, you're welcome.

Plenty soon-to-be free agents are being steered into an early vacation. And many of them have to be wondering whether there's a better situation for them to join—somewhere that profiles as the superior fit, is offering more money, can promise a larger role or guarantees their offseason won't begin as early next year.

Most free agents worth their salt stay put. Incumbent teams seldom want quality talent to leave and have the inside track on negotiations. But that doesn't make them the ideal landing spot. 

In some cases, yes, a player has no reason to window shop. Other situations aren't as cut and dried. Here, we're not as interested in what's going to happen. This is a crash course in what should happen to the top free agents from lottery teams, who will be ranked by their performance from this season, because ranking stuff is fun.

If they enter the summer prioritizing destinations that best balance fit, salary and success tailor-made to their short- and long-term outlook, where should they go?

'Still in the Playoff Race and Thankfully Can't Be Ranked...for Now' Exclusions

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James Johnson: Miami Heat

Neither the Miami Heat nor James Johnson should want to break up this party. Johnson is having a career year, propping up per-possession output rivaled only by Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant and Marc Gasol, and the Heat have found someone who can run point while stalking power forwards and centers. 

Unless another buyer slings a short-term max, Johnson and the Heat need to surf this wave together.

CJ Miles (Player Option): Minnesota Timberwolves

Here's every player averaging 4.5 or more three-point makes per 100 possessions through 1,500 minutes of court time: Ryan Anderson, Stephen Curry, Eric Gordon, Kyle Korver, CJ Miles, JJ Redick, Isaiah Thomas, Klay Thompson and Nick Young.

The Minnesota Timberwolves need Miles' firepower. They don't shoot nearly enough threes, and their best perimeter defenders are point guards. They have a ton of cap space but can't be too cavalier with their investments. They have to start planning for Zach LaVine's and Andrew Wiggins' raises.

Miles is a happy medium. He isn't a star, but the Timberwolves can afford to overpay him because that still won't entail breaking the bank.

Nikola Mirotic (Restricted): Indiana Pacers

Nikola Mirotic is burying almost 47 percent of his threes since missing three straight games in the middle of March. It's not up to him where he plays next season, since the Chicago Bulls can match any offer he signs, but the Indiana Pacers have the money and motive to make things difficult.

Imagine what the Pacers offense would look like if all Lavoy Allen's—and some of Al Jefferson's—minutes went to the spacier Mirotic.

Jeff Teague: Dallas Mavericks

"We've to get better at point [guard]," Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban said, per Mavs.com's Earl K. Sneed. "There's no question. If we can't do it in the draft, we'll look at free agency."

Dallas can get to $20 million or more in cap space by waiving Devin Harris (non-guaranteed) and re-signing Dirk Nowitzki ($25 million team option) for way less. Jeff Teague would eat within head coach Rick Carlisle's offense, and the Mavericks instantly become the better long-term option if Paul George's upcoming free agency in 2018 thrusts Indiana into an unplanned reset before then.

Dwyane Wade (Player Option): Chicago Bulls

Money talks. The Bulls aren't the perfect spot for Dwyane Wade, but it'll take him two, maybe three, years to recoup the $23.8 million they're scheduled to pay him. That's more than enough to ride out the slog.

If Wade does test the open waters, it needs to be the Cleveland Cavaliers or bust. He'll have to sign for part of the taxpayer's mid-level or accept the veteran's minimum, but whatever. He can save on living expenses by crashing in LeBron James' guest mansion or something.

Dion Waiters (Player Option): Philadelphia 76ers

T.J. McConnell is scrappy and all, but the idea of using Waiters and his 39.4 percent three-point clip at point guard isn't one the Philadelphia 76ers should pass on. Waiters can split ball-handling duties with Ben Simmons as he does Goran Dragic, and his pick-and-roll potential next to Joel Embiid would be through the roof.

Bring him home, Philly.

10. Derrick Rose: Sacramento Kings

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Derrick Rose's free-agent market should open up considerably now that he's being more realistic about his future.

“I’m not even thinking about the money,” he said, per USA Today's Steve Popper. “I’ve got enough money saved. If I was to stop playing basketball now, I’d be alright. I want to win and I want to be happy and feel at peace with myself wherever I’m at."

So much for those rumors of $150 million aspirations, eh?

On the surface, the Sacramento Kings don't fit the Rose billing. They aren't a contender and most certainly won't pay top dollar for a 28-year-old coming off yet another knee injury, this one a torn meniscus in his left knee.

But this isn't another "Oh, an NBA outcast? Just put him on the Kings!" card, either. Promise. They need a point guard with Darren Collison set to enter free agency, and Rose's dribble drives remain a marketable skill.

Drafting a floor general—say, De'Aron Fox out of Kentucky—doesn't preclude the Kings from joining these presumably tepid sweepstakes. Rose's price tag will continue to drop with his latest injury, he can buoy an offense for short bursts with his dribble drives, and he's not good enough to ruin whatever tank job Sacramento has up its sleeve.

For Rose, the decision is simple. Powerhouses won't come calling with a starting role, so he might as well sign a sizable short-term deal with a Kings squad that'll allow him to pad his stats and try to show he's capable of finishing a season in one piece.

9. Omri Casspi: Oklahoma City Thunder

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Go ahead and chalk up Omri Casspi's uninspiring 2016-17 crusade to bad luck, injuries, inconsistent usage and, most of all, being subject to the skydiving-without-a-parachute experience that is playing for the Kings.

Following a career performance last season, Casspi began the year on the outskirts of Sacramento's rotation. He snuck back in for a beat between the end of November and beginning of December, during which time he dropped in 47.1 percent of his threes.

A calf strain dampened what time he had left with the Kings. Then, after being traded to the New Orleans Pelicans, he fractured his right thumb and was released. And now he's with the Timberwolves, a team that doesn't generate enough three-point looks to maximize his value.

The Oklahoma City Thunder won't have trouble milking Casspi's outside touch. They manufacture about as many wide-open three-pointers as the Golden State Warriors but don't have the snipers to make defenses pay. They're barely shooting 32 percent on long-range bunnies—second-worst rate in the league—and haven't been much better since the trade deadline.

Price could be an issue. The Thunder will be operating as a luxury-tax team if they keep Andre Roberson's (restricted) and Taj Gibson's holds. Renouncing Gibson gives them the wiggle room to sidestep the threshold and dangle the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, which is projected to rise above $8 million, per RealGM. That should be more than they'll need to land Casspi.

Almost every team can use a rangy combo forward who's shooting 40 percent from deep since 2014-15, this year's slump included, but shrinking cap projections mean the hyperbolic-contract bubble is about to burst. At minimum, Casspi should cost less than Gibson, whose price tag becomes redundant with Steven Adams and Enes Kanter making a combined $40.4 million in 2017-18.

8. Rudy Gay (Player Option): Chicago Bulls

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This is called a hedge, kids.

If Rudy Gay were healthy, he'd crack the top five. But he's on the wrong side of 30 and is working his way back from an Achilles tear. We can't say for sure whether he will, as initially expected, decline his player option. As of early March, Gay himself didn't even know, per the Sacramento Bee's Jason Jones.

Regression is unavoidable in the aftermath of Achilles injuries. Gay wouldn't explore the open market in hopes of matching the $14.3 million salary he's owed next season. He'd look around to secure more money over the long term.

The Bulls should be interested, assuming their plan is to keep Jimmy Butler and eschew a rebuild. They'll need shooters no matter what happens with Wade and Rajon Rondo (non-guaranteed), and head coach Fred Hoiberg has yet to employ a truly sweet-shooting 4—Mirotic's recent hot streak notwithstanding.

Gay should hold up better defensively at power forward after his extensive rehabilitation, and he can combine shot creation with spot-up marksmanship. Almost 20 percent of his field-goal attempts this season came as standstill threes, on which he shot 38.4 percent.

Slot him alongside Butler, on what would have to be a modestly priced three-year deal, and Chicago would be able to find another gear on offense—a dynamic far more efficient and easy to watch than this season's clunker-fest.

7. Tyreke Evans: Orlando Magic

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Sources close to the situation (an ill-placed whiteboard) told the world (Twitter) the Orlando Magic are keeping tabs on roughly every free-agent wing with a pulse. Tyreke Evans satisfies such a grueling requirement.

The sources (still the whiteboard) weren't clear about whether Evans cracked the list, but incumbent mercenary Jeff Green appeared on it. And if he's up for consideration, Evans should be as well. He's younger and, well, just plain better.

Evans wouldn't be a franchise cornerstone for the Magic. Nor would he connect the continent separating them from next year's postseason fracas. He doesn't offer them any definitive direction whatsoever. But he does allow them to toe the line between competing and rebuilding without ruining their long-term outlook.

At 6'6", Evans remains a tweener, mostly in a good way. He has the vision necessary to be a faux point guard and the anticipation required to gum up pick-and-rolls on defense. Orlando can use him at the 2 or 3 without abandoning head coach Frank Vogel's favored schemes.

Terrence Ross and Evan Fournier are both locked up long term, and Mario Hezonja is showing late-season signs of life. Evans fits into that wing rotation off the bench as the sixth man who melds the responsibilities of Elfrid Payton, Fournier and Ross.

Health remains Evans' greatest enemy. He appeared in fewer than 70 total games across the last two seasons and missed at least 17 games four times in eight years. That shouldn't be a deal-breaker for the Magic, however. Durability issues should drive down his asking price, and they need cheaper impact players with Aaron Gordon and Payton nearing extensions this summer or restricted free agency in 2018.

6. Darren Collison: New York Knicks

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Here's some hard-to-digest food for thought: Who gets the more lucrative contract this summer, Darren Collison or Rose?

Uncomfortable still: Is this even a question? Collison is never going to rank inside the top 15 at his position, but he can pilot a functioning offense while squeezing in some off-ball work.

Though the Kings are scoring near a bottom-10 rate with him on the floor since the DeMarcus Cousins trade, they're far worse when he takes a seat. He's putting down more than 47 percent of his spot-up triples and creating more points off assists per game than higher-held counterparts such as Rose, George Hill and Tony Parker.

Four other players are averaging at least 20 points and seven assists per 100 possessions while shooting 40 percent or better from deep through 2,000 minutes of action: Mike Conley, Stephen Curry, Goran Dragic and Kyle Lowry.

With the New York Knicks in desperate need of a point guard who can exist in the triangle, this feels like a good-to-great match. Given their lackluster appeal following the Charles Oakley and Carmelo Anthony debacles of this past season, it may be New York's only plausible match.

Collison won't prevent the Knicks from drafting and developing another point guard, and there would be money left over for team president Phil Jackson to further complicate an overcrowded frontcourt rotation flesh out what's left of this year's porous perimeter cast.

5. Mason Plumlee (Restricted): Milwaukee Bucks

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Mason Plumlee's time with the Denver Nuggets has been underwhelming. His per-possession production is comparable to what it was with the Portland Trail Blazers, but he poses the same problem Denver encountered with Jusuf Nurkic: He can't play next to Nikola Jokic.

The Nuggets offense works fine when their two bigs share the court. They are pumping in 110.4 points per 100 possessions—slightly above their fourth-ranked season average. There are no such silver linings on the defensive end, however.

Denver is coughing up nearly 112 points per 100 possessions with both in the game, which translates to a league-worst defense. Neither Jokic nor Plumlee should be chasing around power forwards, many of whom are glorified wings.

These unimpressive (if disastrous) returns inject uncertainty into Plumlee's future. The Nuggets can match whatever offer sheet he signs as a restricted free agent this summer, but should they want to? Shelling out eight figures annually for a backup 5 who doesn't mesh with your starring skyscraper has the makings of a disaster.

That opens the door for another team to swoop in. And if Greg Monroe opts out of his contract, that team should be the Milwaukee Bucks. If he doesn't, the Boston Celtics should see how much it costs to make Plumlee their new Amir Johnson.

Plumlee has a higher ceiling on the defensive end than Monroe—who, by the way, has been sound on the less glamorous side. He doesn't have a back-to-the-basket game, but he matches Monroe's passing acumen and will be the more promising diver in the right situation.

Committing to Plumlee is only sort of weird with John Henson and Thon Maker in tow. Miles Plumlee is gone, so there's room for Milwaukee to stagger Henson's minutes with another big, and Maker occupies on the perimeter enough to coexist alongside a screen-setting slasher.

4. Nerlens Noel (Restricted): Dallas Mavericks

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Quality restricted free agents are inherently difficult to poach. They're even less gettable when they play for Mark Cuban.

"The only reason he was so cheap was that he is an impending restricted free agent who the Sixers did not intend to keep, not with a projected cost of around $90 million, according to league executives," Sporting News' Sean Deveney wrote shortly after the trade deadline about former Philadelphia 76ers big man Nerlens Noel. "That won't be the case in Dallas, which has made clear to Noel that it will match any offer he gets this summer."

It just so happens Dallas is the best spot for Noel. He is a solid fit for Carlisle's offense—a blossoming rim-runner who, when given the opportunity, screens like he means it.

Noel's defense around the basket has suffered since landing with the Mavericks, and he doesn't have the girth to battle with post-up brutes. But he anchored stingy lineups in Philly and is already a good complement to Dirk Nowitzki. Dallas posts a league-best defensive rating and outscores opponents by 6.1 points per 100 possessions when the duo is on the floor.

Considering how long it has taken the Mavericks to acquire a center worth keeping, it's beyond unlikely they get pocket shy over the summer. Noel is good enough to be their big of the future, and they'll invest in him in accordingly.

3. Danilo Gallinari (Player Option): Miami Heat

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Danilo Gallinari and the Nuggets have outlived one another. He could enter the discussion for a short-term max if he opts out of his deal; they're overrun with talented wings and should reserve their cap space for bigger holes and All-NBA talent.

Denver's potential disinterest won't be a harbinger of Gallinari's market. Relatively low-usage combo forwards who can stroke threes and reach the foul line on command are in vogue.

They're also really rare.

Kevin Durant and James Harden are the only players since 2011-12 to sniff Gallinari's free-throw rate (.524) while draining 38 percent of their three-pointers. Contrary to the future Got2b spokesperson, neither of them posted a usage rate south of 20.

Teams will have a tough time building a top-tier defense if Gallinari is playing most of his minutes at the 3. But they'll have a harder time finding a high-end offensive weapon with "Seamless Transition" stamped across his forehead.

That brings us to the Heat. They'll have gobs of cap space this summer even if Chris Bosh's contract doesn't come off their books, and they need another shot-creator who doesn't displace Goran Dragic too often.

Miami has already been linked to Gordon Hayward, according to the New York Daily News' Frank Isola. Gallinari is like a middle-class Hayward, minus the max-contract sticker shock. The Heat could sign him and have enough breathing room to retain one of Johnson or Waiters.

2. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Restricted): Brooklyn Nets

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Every team preparing to send a young wing out into restricted free agency must brace itself for an inevitable, overaggressive push from the Brooklyn Nets.

General manager Sean Marks has money to burn and time to kill until the team's draft-pick commitments expire—a lethal combination, for rival purposes. As such, the Nets are expected to make a play for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, according to the New York Post's Brian Lewis.

Fortunately for the Detroit Pistons, they have the right to match any offer—a point head coach and president Stan Van Gundy has emphasized.

"We have a pretty good idea of what's coming," he said. "And it's going to be our decision to make. We only don't have him next year if we decide we don't want to have him. There's no team out there that can decide they're going to have KCP next year. They don't get that decision. It's on us."

Caldwell-Pope is the Pistons' best player. Van Gundy likely won't let him walk for nothing. But the bill for a max contract should make him think twice, and there's no better place for Caldwell-Pope to leverage than Brooklyn.

Nets head coach Kenny Atkinson has a soft spot for wings who defend multiple positions and can orchestrate pick-and-rolls. He throws Rondae Hollis-Jefferson at everyone, and Caris LeVert already sees possessions as the primary ball-handler. Caldwell-Pope is the collision between both of those worlds. Detroit has him defending everyone from point guards to small forwards, and he's initiated more pick-and-rolls than any non-floor general on his team.

Dropping him beside LeVert and Hollis-Jefferson results in a terrifyingly versatile 2-3-4 troika—one that paves the way for the Nets to leave their league-worst record behind. 

1. Jrue Holiday: Denver Nuggets

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Because we're all friends here, y'all should know the San Antonio Spurs and Jrue Holiday are unofficially meant for each other. But the NBA's flagship for unending dominance won't have the cap space to woo Holiday unless Pau Gasol opts out (not happening) or it dumps Tony Parker's expiring deal (which, you know, awkward).

On to the Nuggets then!

Holiday isn't an All-NBA talent, and Denver still has Emmanuel Mudiay. But both hiccups are immaterial. The Nuggets haven't established themselves as a hot destination. Paul George didn't show interest in playing for them at the trade deadline, per ESPN.com's Chris Haynes and Marc Stein. And Mudiay has fallen in and out of favor since Jokic became priority numero uno.

With the prospect of poaching another big name via free agency unlikely, Holiday is as flashy as it gets. His playmaking is on par with other star floor generals, and Mudiay may never match his consistency from beyond the arc.

Just two players, in addition to Holiday, are eclipsing 20 points and 10 assists per 100 possessions while swishing 36 percent of their triples: LeBron James and Chris Paul. That Holiday is also a defensive upgrade over anyone Denver runs out at point guard makes him an even more attractive target. 

Sources told Basketball Insiders' Steve Kyler the Pelicans are prepared to re-sign Holiday at near-max money. That's only a problem for the Nuggets if the Pelicans are baiting him with a fifth season. They have the means to peddle a four-year max and can sell him on higher usage than he'll enjoy next to Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins.

And if Holiday comes, perhaps that's enough to pique George's attention when his name resurfaces among those on the chopping block.

Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale) and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast co-hosted by B/R's Andrew Bailey.

Stats courtesy of Basketball Reference or NBA.com and accurate leading into games April 10. Team salary information via Basketball Insiders.