Ranking the Futures of Every Projected 2017 NBA Lottery Team
The NBA draft lottery is basically hope made manifest.
If you're in it, it's because the season you just put together wasn't any good, and you're hoping (there's that word again) an influx of young talent will make you better.
The concept—the feeling—of hope is inherently unquantifiable. It's based on something other than facts for the most part. It's a wish.
Still, anyone looking at this year's projected lottery participants can see there are varying degrees of rationality attached to each team's hopes. Even if we can't apply a specific measurement, some clubs definitely have more than others.
Having Karl-Anthony Towns already achieving stardom, for example, tends to swell the positivity stockpile.
Based on present talent, assets and even management, we have enough to rank each lottery team's future—which we'll define here as a three-year timeline. For each squad, we'll highlight the main reasons for hope and despair, just to keep things fully in perspective.
14. Brooklyn Nets
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Hope
Caris LeVert might be ready to provide quality rotation minutes on a decent team right now, which is a nice feature to have in a rookie. He's posting averages of 9.0 points, 3.8 rebounds and 2.0 assists on 50.9 percent shooting since the break, and the Brooklyn Nets are 7-8 through their first 15 March games.
With Brook Lopez still around as an offensive anchor, an incoming first-rounder from the Washington Wizards in 2017 (plus seconds from the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers) and a management crew led by Sean Marks that is making the most of a bare cupboard, there's light at the end of the tunnel.
Despair
The tunnel is long. Like, really, really long.
Brooklyn won't take advantage of its league-worst record in the lottery because it owes its top pick to the Celtics in a swap. With the 2018 selection going to Boston outright, the Nets aren't going to add a franchise-altering talent through the draft until at least 2019. And since rookies so rarely make a positive impact, it's difficult to see Brooklyn developing into a playoff threat until sometime next decade.
Bad teams need high-value picks and trade chips to get better. Brooklyn has neither.
13. Sacramento Kings
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Hope
When the Sacramento Kings traded DeMarcus Cousins, they didn't get fair market value in return. But at least they cleared the runway for a full rebuild. There's value in having direction—value we've already seen in the form of rookie Skal Labissiere scoring a career-high 32 points on March 15 against the Phoenix Suns.
Buddy Hield, Willie Cauley-Stein and, eventually, Georgios Papagiannis and Malachi Richardson will all get their chances to prove they're part of what should be the team's core going forward.
Things are just simpler in Sacramento without Boogie, and that, in theory, should make roster building easier.
Despair
That core isn't very good.
Every rookie and second-year talent in the Kings' stable has shown flashes, but to say any of them projects as a surefire starting-caliber asset is a stretch. The Kings have New Orleans' first-rounder this year, and they'll have another in the lottery regardless of the swap agreement they share with Philadelphia.
In the hands of another front office, that'd be a cause for real excitement. But the Kings don't have a strong draft record. Not including the trade of Marquese Chriss to the Suns for Bogdan Bogdanovic and two picks during the 2016 draft, their last four selections in the top eight yielded Thomas Robinson, Ben McLemore, Nik Stauskas and Cauley-Stein.
Toss in the historical difficulty of luring free agents to Sacramento, and the Kings' relatively unencumbered cap situation doesn't mean much either.
Capricious ownership and a front office that has yet to prove its worth make for an unstable combination.
12. Orlando Magic
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Hope
At least with the Serge Ibaka trade thinning out a crowded frontcourt, the Orlando Magic will get a better idea of Aaron Gordon's potential at power forward. He's in a group with Mario Hezonja and maybe even Terrence Ross who could still take steps forward over the next couple of years.
Despair
It was tempting to put general manager Rob Hennigan's potential ouster in the hope section, but that felt a little cold. Instead, we'll slot the managerial uncertainty here because even if Hennigan's uneven signing history (Jeff Green, D.J. Augustin, Bismack Biyombo) and failed win-now trades (like the one that brought Ibaka on board) inspire no optimism, sometimes the devil you know is better than the one you don't.
The Magic have no outgoing pick obligations, but anytime a team is contemplating a high-level front office pivot, it injects uncertainty into the rebuild. Plus, it's not like there's much flexibility for the hypothetical new regime; between Evan Fournier, Biyombo, Nikola Vucevic, Ross, Augustin, Gordon, Hezonja and Elfrid Payton, the Magic have over $80 million committed through the 2018-19 season.
That core isn't good enough to be a playoff contender on its own, and adding to it could be tough with incoming first-rounders taking up even more cap space.
11. Charlotte Hornets
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Hope
This ranking is way too low if you value certainty and don't mind the mediocrity treadmill.
The Charlotte Hornets are better than every team we've listed so far, and there's a good chance they'll outperform the next half-dozen in 2017-18. They made the playoffs last season, they're led by All-Star Kemba Walker, Steve Clifford is a good NBA coach, and they're unlikely to endure much turnover because all the key rotation pieces are locked into deals that run through 2018-19.
Despair
The problem with Charlotte is its lack of flexibility. Sure, we know who'll be playing for the Hornets for the foreseeable future, and we know a mid-tier playoff seed is a solid high-end projection if everything goes right.
But this group—Walker, Nicolas Batum, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Marvin Williams, Cody Zeller, Miles Plumlee, Jeremy Lamb and Frank Kaminsky—isn't enough to break into the East's top four. And as we've seen this year, it's flawed enough to wind up in the lottery.
The Hornets are devoted to middling competitiveness, which is kind of an old-school mentality in today's tank-or-contend era. You don't spend over $100 million on Batum and over $50 million on Williams in the same offseason if you're angling for titles on a three-year timeline.
There's value in that, and maybe even nobility. But when your ceiling is something like 48 wins and you trended away from that in the first year after spending big, it's hard to be hopeful.
And maybe it's not fair, but addressing an issue like rest in the exact opposite way the San Antonio Spurs, Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers do isn't a great sign.
"It's easy for me, because I'm working for an owner who just doesn't believe in it," Clifford told David Scott of the Charlotte Observer. "And I have an associate head coach [Patrick Ewing] who would kill me if I started doing it."
The Hornets are fine, but there's no hope in "fine."
10. Detroit Pistons
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Hope
Andre Drummond's offensive potential may not be there, but the tools to become a defensive monster who rolls hard to the rim are still present. And if he gets no better, he'll still rebound like crazy while scoring easily in double figures by cleaning up teammates' misses inside.
Tobias Harris' contract (two more years and $31 million) is fair for a proven scorer, whether he starts or comes off the bench, and even if it costs the max to keep Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, you could do much worse than spending on a three-and-D wing who has gotten better every year.
Plus, Marcus Morris is a cheap role-filler, Stanley Johnson could improve and we're pretty sure Stan Van Gundy is a good coach.
Despair
Almost everything negative that applied to the Hornets applies here, with the only edge coming in the age department. At least the core Detroit has locked itself into is relatively young, with Drummond (23) and KCP (24) offering more potential than the Hornets' more experienced core.
Still, this is pretty much it for the Pistons.
Reggie Jackson makes them worse whenever he's on the floor, and he's on the books through 2019-20. With Drummond's progress stagnating a bit, the Pistons aren't exactly heading into the future with a fearsome one-two punch.
Though we wouldn't normally counsel pushing for the No. 8 spot, it might be best for the Pistons to go that route. They'll be at the end of the lottery if they don't make the postseason, and some playoff experience could do this bunch some good.
9. New Orleans Pelicans
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Hope
Anthony Davis is a 24-year-old generational megastar around whom you could build a championship team unless you were dangerously shortsighted and irresponsibly impatient.
Despair
The New Orleans Pelicans have been dangerously shortsighted and irresponsibly impatient.
This has nothing to do with the DeMarcus Cousins trade, which was a terrific value-add at a no-brainer price. Instead, it's about a Pelicans team that has habitually traded away future assets for present ones—which is a strange approach in light of the success teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder and Warriors have had building a core around several draftees who grow together on similar timelines.
Davis and Cousins could still become the dominant duo their talent suggests is possible, but they'll have to do just that for the Pels to go anywhere. Jrue Holiday will be a free agent this offseason, Sacramento owns New Orleans' 2017 lottery pick, and the rest of the rotation under contract—led by Solomon Hill, Omer Asik, E'Twaun Moore, Alexis Ajinca and Tim Frazier—is uninspiring.
"It's the best we've played for a stretch really since I've been here," head coach Alvin Gentry told reporters after a recent 6-2 stretch in which the Davis-Cousins experiment produced encouraging results.
The Pels will go as far as AD and Boogie take them, and even with small samples pointing toward a brighter future, it's way too early to assume this works out. Oh, and Cousins can leave as a free agent in 2018.
8. Chicago Bulls
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Hope
Jimmy Butler is an All-NBA talent under contract through 2018-19 (with a player option for 2019-20) at a significantly below-market rate.
As starting points go, that's a great one.
In addition, the Chicago Bulls could have serious flexibility as soon as this summer. Dwyane Wade's $23.8 million player option is a major variable, but nobody else on the roster besides Butler and Robin Lopez is guaranteed more than $10 million next year.
This team could reform itself into a top-four threat in the East rather quickly.
Despair
The Bulls haven't inspired confidence with their recent decisions.
Fred Hoiberg hasn't had a roster suited to his uptempo preferences, but little of what he's done in an imperfect situation suggests he's the long-term answer at head coach. The front office has made inexplicable decisions like adding Wade and Rajon Rondo to an already spacing-starved offense and giving up way too much for Cameron Payne at the deadline.
Then there's Butler, the subject of trade chatter since before the season began. It's true he still has immense value as a bargaining chip, but the uncertainty surrounding his future with the team can't weigh as anything but a negative.
In a perfect world, his uncommonly affordable salary (he'll make just $18.7 million next season) would slot him in as an overqualified second fiddle behind a transcendent superstar. And even in an imperfect one, he could lead a sanely constructed roster to at least second-round playoff series.
But we don't know what the Bulls will do with him, how far back a big trade might set their developmental timeline or who'll coach the team if/when a shake-up happens.
7. Dallas Mavericks
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Hope
It's difficult to overrate the importance of organizational continuity, culture and a general reputation of first-class basketball operations. It's also hard, of course, to trust in those things to produce wins by themselves.
But the Dallas Mavericks are a high-functioning outfit that tends to get results. Rick Carlisle's wizardry helps, and owner Mark Cuban's willingness to chase contention or tread water while waiting for better opportunities does, too.
The Mavs must pay big to retain Nerlens Noel, but he's got difference-maker upside at center. Plus, with Seth Curry developing into a viable starter and Yogi Ferrell inked to a minimum deal, this team has enough underpriced assets to offset larger obligations for Harrison Barnes and Wesley Matthews.
Dallas also gets to keep its first-rounder from conveying to the Sixers this summer, as it's protected from pick Nos. 1-18.
Despair
Even if Noel turns into a borderline star, Dirk Nowitzki scores efficiently for another season or two, Barnes takes another step and Carlisle keeps getting the most out of his roster's talent, it's tough to imagine this group contending.
The Mavs have notoriously struck out on free-agent swings, and if Noel commands huge cash (he will), there may not even be room to ink an impact addition. If Dallas doesn't pick up Nowitzki's $25 million team option for next year (something he'd almost certainly have to agree to, even if it's not technically his choice), there'd be considerably more capital available, but then you're back in the position of hoping for the Mavs to finally seal the deal on a big name.
6. New York Knicks
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Hope
Kristaps Porzingis might be a franchise-altering star, and Willy Hernangomez already looks like a rotation-level contributor as a rookie.
If the former develops defensively and gets a chance to take on a larger role, the Knicks have their cornerstone. And if the latter keeps piling up double-doubles like he has since the All-Star break, New York can give KP a solid sidekick on the cheap.
Courtney Lee, Lance Thomas and Kyle O'Quinn are on reasonable role-player deals, and Derrick Rose comes off the books in July.
Terrible contracts for Carmelo Anthony and Joakim Noah stand out as enormous whiffs, but team president Phil Jackson had actually put together a solid resume aside from those. If he connects in the draft again and doesn't get too short-term in his free-agent thinking, the Knicks could be in good shape.
Despair
Noah's contract was the worst in the league before he got suspended for a violation of the NBA's anti-drug program. He was wildly ineffective, sure to get worse as he aged through the four years of a $72 million deal...and now this.
There's also the ongoing and increasingly ridiculous triangle offense fiasco to consider. Head coach Jeff Hornacek might run more of the outdated, consistently ineffective (unless you have several Hall of Famers on the roster) scheme next year.
Anthony's defense continues to decline, ranking 74th among 81 qualifying small forwards in ESPN's defensive real plus-minus. He'll collect another $26.2 million next year before facing an early termination option in the summer of 2018. His no-trade clause means he might be around for the duration.
It'll be hard to hand the franchise over to Porzingis and give him the help he needs with Melo, Noah and an ineffective offensive philosophy obstructing progress.
5. Los Angeles Lakers
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Hope
It's unclear whether any of Brandon Ingram, D'Angelo Russell, Julius Randle, Larry Nance Jr. and Jordan Clarkson can develop into reliable, above-average starters. But the Lakers have a lot of bites at that apple, which is promising for the organization's long-term prognosis.
Add another high lottery pick this summer, the right to which L.A. has maintained with an aggressive tank job, and it's not hard to see a terrific young core's developing together with head coach Luke Walton building a winning culture.
Paul George could be inbound to speed up the process. If he signs on in 2018 as the kids hit the start of their primes, the Lakers could have something.
Despair
The pervasive sense of exceptionalism—this idea that being a Laker is in itself somehow meaningful—lingers. And even if Magic Johnson represents the possibility of a saner future, he's still a symptom of this unique organizational emphasis on tradition.
That way of thinking has only set back the Lakers in the past. Kobe Bryant's huge deal, Byron Scott's coaching stint and a reliance on a historical free-agent allure not strong enough to overcome losses and dysfunction are the reasons L.A. has all those lottery picks in formative stages.
We don't know what Jeanie Buss' unfettered control will bring. We don't know if Johnson has any idea how to run basketball operations. We can hope both produce positive results, but that's about it.
We do know Timofey Mozgov and Luol Deng are under contract through 2019-20 for over a combined $30 million per year.
4. Phoenix Suns
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Hope
I guess you could keep the comparison basic and say the Suns have an edge on the Lakers because they have a guy who can score 70 points in a game, but that's probably an oversimplification.
Still, Devin Booker is the most promising youngster in the Pacific Division. So that helps the Suns climb higher than a Lakers team with more assets but fewer sure things. Even if Phoenix spends too much time inflating Booker's stats, and even if Earl Watson has done nothing to indicate he's a better-than-average head coach, there's a lot to like about this franchise's future.
Booker's not alone, for one thing. Marquese Chriss, Dragan Bender and an upcoming lottery pick bolster the youth contingent. With Eric Bledsoe on an eminently tradable contract, Tyson Chandler and Jared Dudley affordably providing leadership, and pretty good track record attracting free agents, the Suns can bank on organic growth, trade their way to progress or sign outsiders.
It's up to them.
Despair
The downside is substantial here.
It's hard to downplay Booker's prospects, but Chriss and Bender are major unknowns who have yet to prove anything in games that matter. Brandon Knight is out of the rotation but has another three years left on his deal, and Phoenix hasn't made the best personnel decisions in recent seasons.
This is a team that had let Isaiah Thomas get away after signing him to a fantastic deal. And let's not forget the bold move of adding Chandler as a long-shot lure for LaMarcus Aldridge—one that didn't pan out.
Nothing's certain, but having Booker, a potential star on a rookie deal, makes the upside easy to see.
3. Philadelphia 76ers
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Hope
Say what you want about the shallow class, but when your lock for Rookie of the Year, Joel Embiid, goes down and his teammate, Dario Saric, rises up to take on front-runner status for the award, it's a sign you've got some young talent.
Embiid was historically excellent in his 31 games this season, averaging 28.7 points, 11.1 rebounds and 3.5 blocks per 36 minutes. No rookie has ever done that in a sample as large as Embiid's 786 minutes, and you have to trim the requirements to 20 points, 10 rebounds and two blocks per 36 to find him any company.
David Robinson, Hakeem Olajuwon, Shaquille O'Neal, Alonzo Mourning, Ralph Sampson and Patrick Ewing make the cut with those parameters, but none match Embiid's rate of first-year production.
Toss in 2016 No. 1 pick Ben Simmons, Saric, a high lottery selection this summer, L.A.'s 2018 first-rounder, Sacramento's 2019 first-rounder, Oklahoma City's 2020 first-rounder (top-20 protected) and more seconds than you can count over the next three years, and you've still got the biggest war chest this side of Boston.
Despair
But what if Embiid never stays healthy?
What if Simmons never learns to shoot?
What if Jahlil Okafor turns out to be an all-time bust—a prospect looking likelier by the day?
Priced into all the wondrous possibilities ahead is a terrifying downside that might make the suffering of the past few seasons meaningless. That's a scary outlook, but it's one we can't ignore for the Sixers.
2. Denver Nuggets
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Hope
It was tough to move them ahead of the Sixers, but the Denver Nuggets offer much more in the way of certainty. As good as Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons might become, and as valuable as all those picks could wind up being, there's still so much we don't know about how Philly will look in the future.
With the Nuggets, it's Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray running a top-three offense in perpetuity. And that's awfully enticing.
Jokic is already a star. A triple-double machine and the best offensive center in basketball, the 22-year-old Serbian gives Denver the perfect building block. Put anybody around him, and his passing maximizes the fit.
Murray profiles as a perfect modern point guard, one as likely to score 30 as hand out six or seven assists. His shot-creation and smooth offensive game will develop beautifully in the free-flowing environment Jokic's presence creates.
Other than that, Denver has loads of movable assets—think Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler and even Emmanuel Mudiay—on fair, good deals. Keep them or trade them; either way, the Nuggets can get value.
Despair
It may not be possible to fashion a consistently respectable defense around Jokic and the up-and-down style his game fosters. As they've been the league's best offense since Jan. 1, the Nuggets have also ranked in the bottom two on the other end.
To really inspire fear in opponents, they'll have to find better balance.
Mudiay, 21, is still very young, but he looks like a draft miss. And the prospect of a possible overpay on Mason Plumlee's next contract looms ahead.
But that's about it. Otherwise, thanks to Jokic, Murray and lots of asset flexibility, the Nuggets figure to win games in increasing volume over the next few years.
1. Minnesota Timberwolves
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Hope
Run down the qualities we've listed under this heading in previous slides, and they all show up here.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have:
- A transcendent superstar in Karl-Anthony Towns
- An organization open to long-term planning
- A good coach in Tom Thibodeau
- No major outgoing pick obligations, as a top-14 protected first-rounder owed to Atlanta hardly hurts
- Supporting talent that can mature alongside the star in Andrew Wiggins, Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine
- No onerous long-term commitments clogging the cap
Basically, the Wolves have everything you could want in an up-and-coming franchise, with Towns' status as a can't-miss cornerstone standing out as the most important.
He's averaged 24.6 points, 12.1 rebounds and 2.7 assists with a 60.1 true shooting percentage in his age-21 season. Even if we remove the age restriction, there have been just two other seasons with those averages since 1983-84. Kareem-Abdul Jabbar did it in 1976-77, and Charles Barkley followed in 1988-89.
That's it.
The Wolves could get everything else wrong, and Towns' brilliance would still make them a safe bet to outperform everyone else on this list.
Despair
I don't know, maybe Thibodeau keeps playing his starters too many minutes?
Honestly, you have to work hard to find ways around an optimistic outlook.
Dunn may well be a big miss, and the Wolves have had chronic trouble closing games this season. But even with an underwhelming win total and wild swings in the team's defensive performance, it's just not that easy to be down on year one of the Thibodeau era.
Even LaVine's torn ACL offered a silver lining, as the defense got markedly better in his absence. At least they know now he may not be worth a major long-term investment.
Buy the Wolves, is what I'm saying.
Draft pick details via RealGM.com. Salary information courtesy of Eric Pincus and Basketball Insiders. Stats courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball Reference unless otherwise indicated and are accurate through games played Tuesday, March 28.
