Bills vs. Dolphins: Full Miami Game Preview
The Miami Dolphins didn't expect to find themselves at 1-1 after the first two games of the 2015 schedule.
Expectations are one thing, but the reality is a bit different after two consecutive underwhelming efforts against competition that was supposed to be conquerable for our heroes in aqua and orange.
Miami goes into its Week 3 matchup against the 1-1 Buffalo Bills with a looming sense of dread. A loss will put the Dolphins behind the AFC East eight ball before they head to London in Week 4; they'll have a 1-2 record and be 0-1 against their division foes.
There's opportunity in this game as well. If Miami wins, all of the drama that came post-Week 2 will dissipate. The Dolphins will be 2-1 going into their London contest with the Jets while also knocking the Bills to an 0-2 record against the AFC East early in the season.
Can the Dolphins overcome that feeling of dread and embrace the potential opportunity? We'll find out on Sunday. In the meantime, here's our preview of Miami's home opener against the Bills.
Week 2 Results and Recap
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It's OK to still be speechless from Sunday's loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars (we are, despite what our recap might lead you to believe).
The NFL is about matchups, and you'll be hard-pressed to find a better matchup for Miami than the Jaguars.
The Jaguars had a turnover-prone quarterback protected by an offensive line that's weak in pass protection and a defense that you should be able to pass on and set up the run game. As a whole, the Dolphins had more talent.
Still, they managed to overcome every advantage they had going into the game and turned it into a 23-20 loss in which they looked unprepared, undisciplined and, to many, hopeless for the 2015 season.
Of course, you'd have to wait until at least Week 9 to write off a season, but the results were not encouraging.
The defensive line looked terrible, missing tackles and blowing assignments. The secondary was picked apart by Blake Bortles, who hasn't picked apart a secondary like this since the 2014 Fiesta Bowl against Baylor. The Baylor team Bortles obliterated in that game looked like a much tougher defense than the Dolphins had on Sunday, and it's not like Art Briles' Baylor teams have been known for defense.
The penalties were killers, as the Dolphins amassed 13 for 122 yards, with three of them coming after a stop on third down and the other being a call for unsportsmanlike conduct on Olivier Vernon that put Jacksonville into range to kick the game-winning field goal.
Oh—and twice, the Jaguars scored after one of those penalties that negated a third-down stop.
On offense, the Dolphins couldn't run, partially due to injuries and partially because of the lack of attempts.
But despite that and an offensive line that got weaker due to another injury (which we'll discuss later), there was a saving grace.
Ryan Tannehill was excellent. He completed 30 of 44 passes for 359 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions and no turnovers. The closest he came to a turnover was when he fumbled the ball during Miami's last drive. Blame left tackle Jason Fox for that, as he didn't even touch Jared Odrick as the latter came off the line toward the pocket.
There are many reasons Miami lost, but Tannehill wasn't one of them.
News and Notes
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Philbin Defends Suh
Right after Sunday's game, there was already chatter within the team (leaked to Adam H. Beasley of the Miami Herald) that Ndamukong Suh "freelanced" on a few plays, which disrupted an already ineffective Dolphins defense even further.
Head coach Joe Philbin was quick to come out to defend his star defensive tackle.
According to Andrew Abramson of the Palm Beach Post, Philbin refused to criticize Suh but instead offered an explanation as to why Suh only recorded one tackle on Sunday:
"A lot of times, they’ve been running away from him a lot. That’s certainly been the case for a couple of weeks and he was involved – he was actually, I thought, closer to plays this week than last week.
To say he’s going to have x-amount of tackles or x-amount of sacks every game, I don’t know – you have to watch the tape. Are they sliding the center that way every time? Are they double teaming every single time? That’s going to inhibit a guy’s ability to make plays. You just can’t look at a stat sheet and say, "That’s a good game, that’s a bad game."
"
As for the allegations that Suh "freelanced," Philbin denied it, saying, “I just watched the entire tape with the entire defensive staff. I just didn’t see anything of the sort. I’m not sure where that came from.”
It is concerning that such a leak would occur from within the organization, and it might signal a frustration from the coaching staff with said play. They won't let it be known publicly how frustrated they are, but it's obvious.
Some accountability would help, though, and while Suh has shown it with his comments, via Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald, we have yet to see it from the coaches.
Parker Progressing, But Snaps Will Still Be Limited
Throughout the season, one should keep an eye on wide receiver DeVante Parker.
After playing in only one preseason game and missing most of training camp due to foot surgery, Parker has been easing his way back into Miami's lineup, and while he continues to progress (playing in one snap against Washington, then 17 against Jacksonville), he still expects his snaps to be limited.
According to Andrew Abramson of the Palm Beach Post, Parker stated, “The more games I play, the more reps I’ll probably get toward the end of the season.” He also added, “The foot feels good. The foot is 100 percent now.”
The issue isn't the injury itself but the fact that Miami has plenty of talent at wide receiver. The Dolphins had two 100-yard receivers on Sunday in Jarvis Landry and Rishard Matthews, while Greg Jennings and Kenny Stills remain ahead of Parker on the depth chart.
Miami should open up its offense outside of that dreaded "20-yard box" (the entire reason for Parker's selection in the draft), and while it should be able to do that with Landry and Stills, it will be hampered by poor offensive line play.
Either way, this is the correct approach for Parker. He's not just in Miami for 2015; he's expected to be Ryan Tannehill's top target for the next five years and possibly beyond. Easing him in and keeping him healthy is the correct way to go, although if Jennings continues to struggle or if an injury occurs among the other wide receivers, that will likely fast-forward the process.
Dolphins Might Regret Putting Jay Ajayi on Short-Term IR
Prior to the start of the season, the Dolphins placed fifth-round pick running back Jay Ajayi on the injured reserve list but is designated to return after suffering a cracked rib in their final preseason game against Tampa Bay.
The decision made sense, as it would hold Ajayi out until Week 6 from practicing (and Week 8 from returning), and Ajayi needed at least three weeks to recover from the injury.
Miami has struggled with running the football, though, and one might hypothesize that a more bruising north-south runner like Ajayi would be a better fit than Lamar Miller (also dealing with an injury now). This led to Miami signing Jonas Gray from the practice squad, as reported by the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson.
However, it might not have had to be this way. Hindsight is 20-20, but in that report, Jackson did say that Ajayi "said last week that he probably would have been ready for Sunday against Buffalo."
Jackson also insinuated that the Dolphins might regret that, especially since the move was made to sign quarterback Logan Thomas, who was released and for now resides on Miami's practice squad.
Miami shouldn't regret this move too much. It made sense at the time, and the only quibble now is that the Dolphins kept LaMichael James to return kicks instead, only to see him him fumble a kickoff return, get into a fight with Jarvis Landry and be released prior to Week 2.
Injury List
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| Player | Position | Injury | Wednesday Status | Thursday Status | Game Status |
| Branden Albert | LT | Hamstring | Did Not Practice | Did Not Practice | Doubtful |
| Jordan Cameron | TE | Groin | Did Not Practice | Limited Participation | Questionable |
| Reshad Jones | S | Hamstring | Limited Participation | Limited Participation | Probable |
| Lamar Miller | RB | Ankle | Did Not Practice | Limited Participation | Questionable |
| Earl Mitchell | DT | Back | ----------------------- | Did Not Practice | Questionable |
| Mike Pouncey | C | Elbow | Limited Participation | Limited Participation | Probable |
| Dion Sims | TE | Concussion | Limited Participation | Limited Participation | Doubtful |
| Ryan Tannehill | QB | Ankle | Full Participation | Full Participation | Probable |
| Cameron Wake | DE | Hamstring | Limited Participation | Full Participation | Probable |
Injury report courtesy of MiamiDolphins.com
One would hope that this injury report is nothing more than the same type of trickery employed by the New England Patriots.
Alas, it isn't. This really is Miami's injury report, and you'll notice that a good number of these names are also potential Dolphins Pro Bowlers.
Tannehill hurt his ankle toward the end of the Jacksonville game, which might have had a lot to do with his lacking mobility towards the end of the contest and the offense's failure to effectively move the ball. He's practicing in full and looks OK, according to Chris Perkins of the Sun-Sentinel.
Perkins also reports that Cameron Wake and Reshad Jones, limited in practice, look OK, too.
Albert's status is the most troubling, as we saw Miami's offense hobbled without him on the field in the second half on Sunday. He'll be needed against a very stout Buffalo pass rush, but the alternative if he's unable to go, Jason Fox, did not look very good against the Jaguars.
Lamar Miller's and Jordan Cameron's are the injuries that will affect Miami's offense the most, as they eliminate two weapons. Jonas Gray and Jake Stoneburner will respectively take their places if they can't give it a go on Sunday. The good news: between Wednesday and Thursday they went from DNP to limited participation.
Pouncey's injury doesn't seem too concerning, and with Sims, it's doubtful that he'll a lot of action (if any) on Sunday, but it's great to know that he's feeling OK after a rather scary injury suffered in Week 1.
Earl Mitchell's injury is a new one, as he practiced fully on Wednesday. That should continue to be monitored. If he's unable to go, A.J. Francis or Jordan Phillips will start in his place.
Key Matchups
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LeSean McCoy vs. Dolphins Linebackers
Miami had a hard time stopping the run in its first two games, and now it will face the most talented running back on the schedule.
LeSean McCoy comes into the game battling a hamstring injury, but Mike Rodak of ESPN.com wrote that Bills head coach Rex Ryan plans on playing him on Sunday and held him out of Wednesday's practice in order to get him healthy.
If McCoy plays, he'll have a decent offensive line protecting him and occupying the Dolphins defensive line, so it will be up to the linebackers to stop McCoy by hitting the gaps created.
It will be a tough go, as McCoy is the type of running back Miami's linebackers traditionally struggle against, as he's incredibly shifty and explosive.
With almost the same personnel last season, Miami's linebackers struggled against C.J. Spiller. McCoy is a better version of Spiller.
Ronald Darby vs. Jarvis Landry
Ronald Darby isn't yet (and might not ever be) Buffalo's Darrelle Revis, but in the first two games of his young NFL career he's looked great against top-flight passing attacks.
On Sunday he could get the Jarvis Landry assignment, making for a tremendous matchup between an up-and-coming receiver and an up-and-coming cornerback.
Darby graded out at 1.1 overall at Pro Football Focus against New England, with a pass-coverage grade of 0.9. The quarterback rating against him so far is 42.8, which would be impressive against any quarterback, but even more so against Andrew Luck one week and Tom Brady the next.
Landry has been sensational for the Dolphins in the first two games of the season and has been their offensive MVP so far. He will have to be more physical against a very physical Darby all game in order to continue posting the lofty stats he has.
Dallas Thomas vs. Kyle Williams
Just typing the words "Dallas Thomas vs. Kyle Williams" sends a shiver through the spine, but there is some good news, as Williams hasn't been very effective through the first two games.
Williams thus far has no sacks and has graded out at minus-0.4 against the run, but he has gotten to the quarterback twice in two games.
He'll match up with Thomas, who has been atrocious at left guard in the first two games, allowing two sacks and five hurries for a Pro Football Focus grade of minus-5.8 in two games.
That's very bad for a guard and very bad in general. He must improve, but after three years, will he? He did have his best game as a guard last season against Buffalo, grading out at 0.1 and allowing only one hurry, according to Pro Football Focus, but was atrocious as a tackle in the second game, in which he graded out at minus-7.8 while allowing two sacks.
Matchup X-Factors
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Miami Dolphins X-Factor of The Week: Jamil Douglas, Right Guard
Jamil Douglas hasn't exactly played well in his first two NFL games.
Despite that, he still has a lot of promise.
It's important to note that while he played a bad game against Washington, he improved against Jacksonville, especially in run blocking.
He also doesn't give up when he's beaten, something that has happened plenty of times. He simply resets his feet and gets engaged again. Watching him improve from game to game will be a highlight of the season.
It would be nice to see him make a big jump this week, a week where he'll be tasked with blocking the always difficult Marcel Dareus and at times have to contend with Mario Williams. We can't expect him to win those matchups, but we won't see him back down and, in fact, might be pleasantly surprised by his play.
Buffalo Bills X-Factor of The Week: Tyrod Taylor, Quarterback
Quarterbacks aren't usually X-factors, but Bills QB Taylor is certainly intriguing.
In the first two weeks of the season, he has run the offense very well and is a big reason why the Bills are ranked fourth in points scored.
Taylor does have three interceptions on the season, but all of them came against New England. He has also been sacked eight times so far, but many of those sacks came from attempts to extend the play and look for a running lane of his own, as he has 84 rushing yards so far this season.
Miami has struggled against dual-threat quarterbacks like Taylor, and while he won't pass the ball often (he only has 37 attempts so far), when he has passed the ball he has been effective. With the weapons he has outside in Percy Harvin and Sammy Watkins (the latter of whom hasn't been used much thus far), there's big-play capability in there as well.
The focus on defense will be on stopping Buffalo's successful ground attack, but an eye must be kept on Taylor as well.
Prediction: Bills 20, Dolphins 17
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Miami's defense should improve enough to hold the Bills to their lowest point total of the season. The scrutiny of last week and subsequent adjustments made should work in the Dolphins' favor.
However, it's difficult to see Miami's offense scoring more than two touchdowns without Branden Albert at left tackle. This does have the aura of a game where Ryan Tannehill gets sacked at least four times and throws at least one interception (which would be his first in four games dating back to last season), due to Buffalo's aggressive defense and Miami's sieve of an offensive line.
Still, the Dolphins should get 17 points in this game, as Tannehill will still, for the most part, play well despite the circumstances around him. Unfortunately, that won't be enough, as the Dolphins will head to London at 1-2, with more noise surrounding them than ever.
Statistics courtesy of NFL.com or Pro Football Focus.
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