Plan B for the L.A. Clippers If They Lose DeAndre Jordan in Free Agency
The Los Angeles Clippers better pray they don't lose DeAndre Jordan. If they do, it's almost a lock they'll fall in the Western Conference standings next season.
Jordan hits free agency this summer and is all but guaranteed to get maxed out—by someone, anyone. Actually, the Clippers have already stated they'll do everything they can to bring back their starting center who finished third in Defensive Player of the Year voting and made his first ever All-Defense team this past season.
It does appear the most likely scenario is Jordan returning to the Clippers, L.A. using the mini mid-level exception to improve its bench and the team moving into next year with a similar roster to the one it fielded this past season. But that's no guarantee. We're already starting to hear rumors about his and the Dallas Mavericks' mutual interest, per Tim MacMahon of ESPN (h/t RealGM).
Cover your eyes and ears, Clippers fans: Jordan could bolt. And if he does, the Clippers have to find a way to tread water with Blake Griffin and Chris Paul, even if the squad would be losing a major two-way presence.
No plan B could give the Clippers as good a shot at winning as their plan A.
Yes, that sounds like a Perd Hapley statement, but it's also essential to stress for the fans out there who think free-agent-to-be Marc Gasol is a possibility (even though he's not for cap-related reasons). Or that someone can come in for the mid-level exception and be just as effective. Let's remember Spencer Hawes signed for the MLE last summer, and when he took that deal, many thought it was actually a bargain.
The Clippers now have him for three more years (and it doesn't look like they'll be able to trade him given the lack of assets they have to grease deals). But they could still move forward with a core of Griffin, Paul and J.J. Redick.
If Jordan leaves, the No. 1 option is to hope—nay, pray—for a sign-and-trade. The Clippers will still have about $58 million left in salaries (with the aforementioned core along with Hawes, Jamal Crawford, Matt Barnes, C.J. Wilcox, Lester Hudson and Jordan Hamilton already on board) but Crawford's $5.7 million and Barnes' $3.5 million could be used to clear room. Hamilton's and Hudson's $1 million salaries are also non-guaranteed.
Next year's cap projects to be around $67 million.
This is where the Clippers stretching three players—Carlos Delfino, Miroslav Raduljica and Jordan Farmar—after unwarranted transactions over the past year could come back to hurt them.
Stretching a player means the organization releases him while spreading his salary against the cap over a number of years. Because of that, those three guys contribute to about $1.41 million of the Clippers' cap next season. If L.A. loses DeAndre and falls under the cap, they could have used that extra $1.41 million of space. But they won't get it.
There are quality free agents this season who wouldn't command Jordan's salary (like Draymond Green or lesser centers who can still anchor competent defenses like Robin Lopez). If the Clips could work out a salary to acquire someone of that caliber, they may not fall off much. But that's not the most realistic scenario.
Sign-and-trades aren't all too common in today's NBA. Because of that, the Clippers will probably have to piece together a temporary roster, using veterans to patch holes without taking on long-term money, similar to strategies the Mavericks or Houston Rockets have employed in recent years. Actually Houston's 2014 offseason would leave a nice blueprint for the Jordan-less Clippers.
Remember when the Rockets were supposedly wasting years of Dwight Howard's and James Harden's primes after their experiment to sign Chris Bosh and bring back Chandler Parsons failed?
Instead, they went with: Clear as much cap as possible (Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik trades, even if that occurred before Parsons signed with the Mavericks), find a replacement who has at least two upper-echelon skills (Trevor Ariza, shooting and defense), dust off some old toys from the back of the closet while hoping they're still fun to use (Josh Smith, Jason Terry, Corey Brewer and Pablo Prigioni) and rely on player development to foster a progressive environment for young players (Donatas Motiejunas and Clint Capela).
We'd all like to fail ourselves into the Western Conference Finals, regardless of whether it works out for the Rockets or not against the Golden State Warriors.
So, plan B isn't just one guy. It's more of a philosophy for a team that's going to be in worse cap shape than Houston was last offseason.
Crawford's and Barnes' contracts are only partially guaranteed for next season, but the deadline for when they become fully guaranteed is July 1, the start of free agency. That means by the time the Clippers know Jordan's official decision, the deals have already kicked in for 2015-16. The value of the partial guarantee is evaporated.
Could the Clippers try trading Crawford on draft day, when his deal is still guaranteed for only $1.5 million next year? Could they use him as the attached asset to unload Hawes?
Sure, but it's a risk (if it's even possible), considering Crawford was most of L.A.'s offensive production off the bench, even if he is a 35-year-old coming off his worst season as a Clipper and a playoffs in which he was the most harmful performer on the team.
The Clipper-related rumors about Paul Pierce are already swirling around basketball circles, as David Aldridge wrote at NBA.com.
"The Wizards could stand pat if Pierce decides to return to D.C. next season rather than opt out of his deal, but many around the league believe Pierce will do just that and finish his career back home in Los Angeles with the Clippers," Aldridge reported over the holiday weekend.
But Pierce doesn't help with much of the Clippers' on-court issues from this past season—like athleticism and defense on the wings or struggles with a third big man. And if D.J. darts, all those problems become secondary ones. Unless he's willing to sign for the minimum, Pierce might not be worth giving a portion of the mid-level exception on a Jordan-less roster.
Naturally, L.A. would have to prioritize the center position in a world without their starting 5-man. See what free agents Omer Asik or Timofey Mozgov would be willing to take. Find other valuable, but cheap assets who can help in other areas.
Talk to Pierce. Talk to Kosta Koufos, Gasol's highly underrated backup in Memphis. Talk to Al-Farouq Aminu. Talk to Wesley Johnson. Add Ed Davis, Luc Mbah a Moute, Lavoy Allen, Brandan Wright, Chris Kaman, Alan Anderson, K.J. McDaniels and Beno Udrih to the list. Anyone who's willing to come for cheap is fair game.
And, like the Rockets—who acquired Smith and Brewer midseason—make sure to put yourself in a position that allows for maximum roster flexibility, something the Clippers have never done with Doc Rivers running the show.
Yep, those names sound underwhelming, but that's the position the Clippers find themselves in, locked into contracts (which Doc brought in, even if he wrongfully claims to have inherited unmanageable deals).
But if you're planning for 2016-17—when the cap projects to jump by more than $20 million, and when the Clips would be able to hand out another max deal—you have to be willing to take a step back, as long as you're accumulating assets as you do it.
It's possible the Clippers could do their own version of what the Rockets did last offseason. Past performance from a Rivers-run front office means improvement without D.J. is a vast unlikelihood, but people can learn. As our good friend Lloyd Christmas might say, "So, you're telling me there's a chance?"
And there is one. The front office, like the Rockets' this year, would just have to do everything right.
Follow Fred Katz on Twitter at @FredKatz.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics are current as of May 26 and are courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
