Colts Should Double-Dip in Free Agency, Draft to End Edge-Rusher Concerns

The model of consistency that was the 2000s Indianapolis Colts had Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. But it also was able to generate pressure at will with Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, a pair of terrifyingly fast pass-rushers that teed off on offensive tackles to end potential comebacks left and right. 

Flash forward to the current Colts, and they have Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton. What they don't have at the moment is any similar facsimile to prime Freeney and Mathis at edge-rusher. It was a consistent problem against good teams and quarterbacks last season.

Per Football Outsiders, the Colts finished ninth in the NFL in Adjusted Sack Rate, but inconsistency was the real hallmark of the unit. Blake Bortles? The mishmash of Tennessee Titans quarterbacks? Andy Dalton? No problem. But whenever the Colts ran into a good quarterback, the lack of non-blitz pass rush had an impact on the game. 

Week	Sacks	Result	Week	Sacks	Result
12 (JAX)	6	23-3 W	8 (PIT)	0	34-51 L
13 (WAS)	6	49-27 W	2 (PHI)	0	27-30 L
6 (HOU)	5	33-28 W	11 (NE)	0	20-42 L

Indianapolis came into the year relying on Mathis, who had a career season in 2013. But between a substance-abuse suspension and a torn Achilles, he played zero snaps for the Colts in 2014. Edge-rusher Erik Walden is the definition of average outside. Former first-round pick Bjoern Werner had a nice stretch in the middle of the season against bad teams but was so ineffective down the stretch that he was deactivated for the AFC Championship Game. 

That leaves the Colts with many more questions than answers for 2015. Mathis will be 34, coming off an injury that reduces effectiveness. It's an open question what he'll have to offer next season. Rookie Jonathan Newsome showed something in garnering 6.5 sacks, but he only played about 400 snaps. How will he perform in an increased role?

Then there's Werner—the Colts have shown us in actions what they think of him at this point. Optimism on Werner's future is like optimism in running back Trent Richardson—the only people who have it are people who have stared at his few successes a little too long.  

Player	Snaps	Sacks	Hurries	PFF Pass Rush Rating
Robert Mathis	0	0	0	n/a
Jonathan Newsome	397	6.5	13	+3.4
Erik Walden	762	6	13	-0.9
Bjoern Werner	669	4	18	-6.6

Luckily for the Colts, there are many, many solutions that can be pursued this offseason. 

In both the draft and free agency, edge-rushing talent is at a premium. Given the number of question marks at the position and the fact that the Colts are projected by Over the Cap to come into the offseason with $33 million in salary-cap space, I think the Colts need to double-tap the position. (They can free up more by releasing Walden and defensive lineman Ricky-Jean Francois if need be.) 

The Jacksonville Jaguars have shown us just how effective a platoon of rushers can be. Bringing in more talent at this spot will help the Colts out on third down, where they can create more speed/leverage mismatches inside. And, most importantly, it gives them depth for injuries or regression that they could not otherwise afford at the position. Y'know, insurance in case you suddenly lose a player who had 19.5 sacks last season, which I'm sure has never happened.

The Colts probably aren't going to be in the picture for the main prizes of free agency, nor will their draft position allow them to walk away with the very cream of the crop like Randy Gregory. Despite lots of rumor-mongering to the contrary, The Indianapolis Star's Stephen Holder doesn't think the Colts will be in on Ndamukong Suh. 

But that's fine because both of these classes also have a ton of depth. It's a little too early to tell how the classes will shake up without the combine, but I think there are many edge-rushers who could hang around the bottom of the first round and catch some eyes. 

Player	College	Position	NFL Draft Scout Rank	College Stat Line (Career)
Vic Beasley	Clemson	OLB	15	32 sacks, 31 TFL
Alvin "Bud" Dupree	Kentucky	DE	17	24 sacks, 25 TFL, 146 solo tackles
Eli Harold	Virginia	OLB	36	17.5 sacks, 22 TFL
Nate Orchard	Utah	OLB	42	21 sacks, 8.5 TFL
Hau'oli Kikaha	Washington	OLB	69	32 sacks, 34.5 TFL

I think even if the Colts don't see one of the better players fall to them, they could wind up with a good fit with someone like Washington's Hau’oli Kikaha. 

And in free agency, of course, even if we remove Suh and Kansas City Chiefs outside linebacker Justin Houston (who will be franchised if he doesn't sign), the pool is strong. 

Player	2014 Snaps	Sacks	Hurries	PFF Pass Rush Grade
Jerry Hughes	807	12	40	+7.6
Jason Pierre-Paul	981	13	38	+5.6
Brian Orakpo	401	1	12	+0.5
Jason Worilds	998	8	28	+11.9
Brandon Graham	524	6	39	+17.7

Of this group, I'm big on Brandon Graham. Though if the Colts are willing to break the bank, Jason Pierre-Paul's obvious athleticism would be interesting as an outside linebacker.

I don't think the Colts need to come in to this offseason with the mindset that they need Player X of these edge-rushers. There are a lot of solid options. 

But if they don't walk away with at least two of them and put their pass rush in uncertain hands, it could come back to bite them come playoff time. Again.

All DYAR and DVOA numbers cited are courtesy of Football Outsiders. Learn more about DVOA here. Rivers McCown is the AFC South lead writer for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Three-Cone Drill podcast. His work has also appeared on Football Outsiders and ESPN.com. Follow him on Twitter at @riversmccown.