Is Bjoern Werner's Recent Play Sustainable for Indianapolis Colts?
One of the biggest keys to Indianapolis' hopes of touching the upper stratosphere of the AFC this offseason rested on one question: Could they find a better pass rush?
The Colts finished 2013 with the eighth-best Adjusted Sack Rate in the league (per Football Outsiders), but that was mostly due to a superlative 19.5-sack season from star outside linebacker Robert Mathis. Mathis was suspended for violating the league's substance-abuse policy, then was lost for the year after tearing his Achilles working out on his own in Atlanta. Suddenly, the question shifted to: Could they even come close to sustaining what they did in 2013?
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Second-year outside linebacker Bjoern Werner, Indianapolis' first-round pick in 2013, managed just 2.5 sacks in his rookie year, adding only a smattering of hurries. Forced onto the field more this year, Werner's performance has taken a leap. Through six games, Werner already has bested last season's sack total of three, and the Colts as a whole are fourth in the league in Football Outsiders' Adjusted Sack Rate, ahead of last year's pace.
Werner, for his part, has played three of the best four games of his career over his last month. Pro Football Focus has credited him with pass-rush grades of +2.4, +3.3 and +0.8 against the Jaguars, Ravens and Texans respectively. Werner's best game in 2013 was graded at +0.6, and he only had two positive scores all season.
Two of Werner's sacks even came at key times late in the game.
Against the Ravens, Werner sacked Joe Flacco on the last Baltimore drive of the game to push the Ravens back to their own 3-yard line. Baltimore was forced to use a valuable timeout, which hurt them as they failed to finish their comeback attempt.
Then, against, the Texans, Werner sacked Ryan Fitzpatrick, forcing a fumble that the Colts recovered to end the game.
The question with Werner's production is: How much of this is real, and how much of it is the product of the players against whom he was playing?
Jacksonville has had a dreadful offensive line all season. While Baltimore hasn't had a bad offensive line, they were starting undrafted rookie free agent James Hurst at tackle against the Colts (for the injured Eugene Monroe), and Werner exploited the overmatched rookie. Meanwhile, the game against Houston wasn't a total outlier with the rest of his career, and, well, Ryan Fitzpatrick runs himself into sacks all the time.
So how much credence can we give to the production given it came against some decidedly subpar competition? I think it tempers expectations for the long haul, but I'd also caution against thinking that Werner's improvement is a fluke.
| 2013, 2014 Week 1-2 | 466 | 2.5 | 1 | 13 | -9.5 |
| 2014 Weeks 3-6 | 175 | 3 | 1 | 8 | +5.1 |
It is hardly unprecedented for a young pass-rusher to need some acclimation time to the NFL. I don't think the Colts have found the next Robert Mathis here or anything—Werner isn't that kind of talent—but I do believe that Indianapolis has seen him develop into a credible second banana.
Werner reminds me of Eagles outside linebacker Connor Barwin, though a bit less versatile. Barwin isn't a star and doesn't have many pass-rush moves, but he found a nice contract in Philadelphia and has some rushing ability.
This doesn't completely negate the loss of Mathis for the Colts. And it's possible that three weeks from now, we'll look at Werner's last four games as a textbook example of the availability heuristic—we saw he could do it and believed that he could continue to do so—even though the Titans shut him down fairly easily despite starting noted statue Charlie Whitehurst.
But for a situation that looked downright dire a couple of weeks ago, the Colts at least have proved that their pass rush can beat up on lightweights. It's a start.
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