Handicapping the AFC from a Steelers' Perspective

(Photo by Chris McGrath/Getty Images)

In analyzing the 2009 Pittsburgh Steelers for Bleacher Report, I am inclined to believe they will be an improved team for the following reasons:

A.) They suffered no key losses and will benefit from the gains received in the draft and by having running backs Rashard Mendehall and Willie Parker return from injury.

B.) The schedule will be easier.

C.) The offensive line simply cannot be any worse than it was last year.

Assuredly, the Steelers won’t be the only improved team in the American Football Conference.

Tom Brady returns from injury, San Diego figures to be better than .500, and there is always a surprise team, such as the Miami Dolphins last season.

So, who will be the contenders for the Steelers’ crown? And who will be the surprise teams of 2009?

In researching former Super Bowl winners, there is a pattern dating back to 1983 (the season of Super Bowl XVIII, when the Los Angeles Raiders beat Washington in 38-9):

A.) Almost every Super Bowl winner made the playoffs the season before.

B.) The exceptions to this rule, the 2001 Patriots, 2000 Ravens, 1999 Rams, and 2003 Patriots, can be broken down into two categories:

1. Teams employing a new starting quarterback for the majority of their Super Bowl winning season (Tom Brady, Trent Dilfer, Kurt Warner).

2.  Teams showing improvement during the previous season. In the case of the 2003 Patriots, New England’s strong, 6-3 finish in 2002 after a 3-4 start spoke of better times ahead. This also was the pattern of the 1982 Washington Redskins, who retained Joe Theismann as their quarterback from 1981 but also finished that season 8-3 after an 0-5 start, and the 1981 San Francisco 49ers, who retained Joe Montana from 1980 and finished 3-2 in a 6-10 season after a woeful 2-14 1979 season.

This formula doesn’t eliminate a whole lot of AFC teams from contending in 2009, but it does throw out the Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars.

Perhaps Terrell Owens will be the addition needed for Buffalo to make the playoffs in 2009, and maybe David Garrard can regain his 2007 form, but it’s safe to say both of these teams are more than a season away from joining the elite of the National Football League and overthrowing the Steelers.

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