NCAA Tournament Bubble Breakdown: Virginia vs. Oregon

Erik SchultzJun 7, 2018

Just when I thought I had covered the two and only bubble teams from the ACC in recent days, suddenly a third team has entered the fray.

Thanks to the heroics of FSU's Ian Miller on Thursday night, the Virginia Cavaliers suddenly find themselves at 8-7 in the ACC. With Clemson beating Virginia Tech on Thursday, Virginia is locked in a four-way tie for fourth place in the league—with Clemson, NC State and Miami.

In that position, Virginia is now fighting to secure an NCAA Tournament bid, with just one regular season game to go. The Cavaliers play at Maryland on Sunday—certainly not a chalk win—and will then wait to see where they are seeded in next week’s ACC Tournament. The Cavs could be seeded anywhere from fourth—in which case they would get a first-round bye—to as low as seventh.

Meanwhile, out in the Pac-12, Oregon won a possible bubble-elimination game with Colorado. Both teams entered the game tied at 11-5 in the league; after the win the Ducks are now tied with Arizona for third place. The Ducks host Utah on Saturday before the Pac-12 Tournament next week.

After Thursday’s games, just how close is Oregon to making the NCAA Tournament? In just how much danger is Virginia—still ranked No. 24 in the AP poll—of actually missing the tourney altogether? Here’s a look at the case for each team. Records and rankings provided below.

Updated RPI/SOS Information from realtimerpi.com.

Virginia: 22-8, 9-7 ACC; RPI: 41, SOS: 81

Oregon: 22-8, 13-5 Pac-12; RPI: 49, SOS: 88

Head-to-head: Virginia won 67-54, at Oregon

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Virginia: Why It Gets in

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Michigan

Virginia beat Michigan in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge back in late November. The Cavs’ 70-58 win in Charlottesville has held up as a high-quality win since then, as Michigan is currently in the Top 15 and still vying for a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Having a win like that to point to in its non-conference profile should help Virginia remain over some of the bubble teams—including Miami and NC State—who do not have such a win they can claim.

Quality Road Play

Virginia has been very good away from home this season, going 8-5. That mark is better than almost any other bubble team from a BCS conference.

In particular, Virginia has defeated some pretty good non-conference teams away from Charlottesville this season. Wins over Drexel (in the Virgin Islands), at LSU and at Oregon have given Virginia’s profile a little more depth. All three of those teams are in the RPI Top 100, with Oregon currently just inside the Top 50. Proving it can beat potential NCAA Tournament teams away from home is always a plus.

Beat Miami and NC State

With teams in the ACC playing an unbalanced schedule, Virginia only faced both Miami and NC State one time each this season. Lucky for the Cavs, they beat both teams in their lone meetings. They beat Miami at home, and NC State in Raleigh.

Those wins give Virginia another leg up on both teams in the hunt for an at-large bid. If the ACC gets four teams into the tournament, it would seem hard for the fourth team to not be UVA.

Virginia: Why It Is Left out

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0-5

Virginia’s loss to Florida State was its second to the Seminoles this season. The same goes for UVA’s loss to North Carolina last weekend. Throw in a loss to Duke in January, and the Cavaliers are a combined 0-5 against the top three—and only surefire tourney-worthy—teams. The lack of a single win against one of these teams could really come back to haunt them.

Miami, meanwhile is 2-2 in its games against Duke, UNC and FSU. 2-2 vs. 0-5 against the league’s top competition—which record would the committee favor?

One NCAA-Lock Win

Virginia’s aforementioned win over Michigan is the only win it has against a team who is certain to be in the NCAA Tournament. The Cavaliers’ other wins of note—Drexel, George Mason, Oregon, LSU, Miami and NC State—are over teams who are at best on the bubble.

If none of those teams makes a run and earns an at-large bid in the next week, can Virginia really feel good about its chances with just one true quality win?

Lost Five of Eight

At the beginning of February, Virginia seemed to be on track for an excellent season. With an 18-3 record, a Top-15 ranking, and in the hunt for a top-three finish in the ACC, the only question around UVA seemed to be how high its seed would be.

Now, thanks to a bit of an extended rough stretch, the Cavs find themselves fighting for their at-large lives. Virginia has lost five of last eight games, with four of those losses coming to Florida State and North Carolina. The other loss in that stretch came was a 12-point Clemson.

While none of those are particularly bad losses, the fact that Virginia couldn’t come up with at least one or two more wins in there points to the possibility that this team just isn’t as good as their lofty early-season record might have indicated.

Oregon: Why It Gets in

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Six Pac-12 Road Wins

Oregon has worked its way to 12-5 in the Pac-12 in large part due to the strength of their play away from the crazy-looking court in Eugene. The Ducks went 6-3 on the road in league play, which included wins at Arizona—another bubble team—and Stanford.

None of Oregon’s three road losses were bad by any stretch. Getting beat by Washington, California and Colorado on its own courts is certainly not a knock on the Ducks’ profile.

Blowout of Washington

The most notable of Oregon’s wins inside the conference would be its 82-57 domination over first-place Washington in Eugene. The Huskies—at No. 49 in the RPI—could be the Pac-12’s best bet to reach the NCAA Tournament.

Dealing the league’s top team its worst margin of defeat of the season should certainly help the Ducks’ case.

Pac 12’s Second-Best RPI

In a league with at least four teams battling for spots in the tourney but none having any marquee wins of note on their profiles, RPI could wind up being a bigger factor in determining which teams earn tournament bids.

Currently, Oregon’s RPI of 48 is second among Pac-12 teams, behind Cal at No. 36. In addition, the Ducks have the third-best strength of schedule (No. 78), behind only Utah (No. 69) and Washington (No. 74).

In a year where nobody in the Pac-12 beat anyone good outside the league, RPI and SOS could end up being the saving grace for a team like Oregon.

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Oregon: Why It Is Left out

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No Quality OOC Wins

You could say this about virtually any team in the Pac-12 (like I do below), but Oregon does not have a single win outside the Pac-12 that will hold any value as its profile is evaluated by the selection committee. The Ducks do not have a non-conference win over a team in the RPI Top 100; its highest-RPI win is against Nebraska (No. 139).

Just about any other bubble team from any other league—BCS conference or mid-major—has at least a couple Top-100 wins in non-conference play. Oregon will be at quite a disadvantage in comparison to all those other teams.

1-6 vs. Top 50

Other than the win at home over Washington, Oregon has come up empty on its chances to earn quality wins against RPI Top 50 teams. The Ducks were swept by Cal, including a 17-point loss at home, and lost by 16 in their other matchup with Washington. Oregon also lost by double-digits to all three Top 50 teams it faced outside the Pac-12. It lost by 14 at Vanderbilt, by 14 at BYU and by 13 at home to Virginia.

With five double-digit losses in its seven games against potential NCAA Tourney-caliber competition, it could be tough to take Oregon seriously as a tourney team itself.

Room for a Third?

Oregon currently trails Washington and Cal in the Pac-12 standings. Those are currently the two front-runners to earn potential tournament bids.

Without any notable wins out-of-conference to make it stand out over either of those two teams, Oregon is going to have to hope the committee feels the Pac-12 is somehow worthy of having three teams in the tournament. In other words, the best way for Oregon to control its own destiny would be to win the Pac-12 Tournament.

Who Gets In?

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Virginia is still in—for now.

However, another loss on Sunday at Maryland would put the Cavaliers in some serious trouble. An 8-8 finish in a weaker-than-normal ACC would not be a good way to get in the NCAA Tournament.

For Virginia, its saving grace is its quality non-conference play, with a win over a Top-15 team (Michigan) and a few other pretty good wins (including Oregon) to back it up.

Oregon, on the other hand, has absolutely nothing to show for itself outside of its 13 Pac-12 wins. But just how many of those will actually have any value in the eyes of the selection committee?