The Key Figure In 49ers Fortunes Is Neither Singletary Nor Smith

If you're brave enough to watch and not too hungover from the Halloween party the night before, chances are that you, the loyal, hopeful 49ers fan that you are, will venture to take in Niners-Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis on Sunday morning.

And by, oh, 10:25, you'll probably want to drink some more.

The Colts are really, really, really good, for a multitude of reasons, but chief among them is they have Peyton Manning and the rest of the league doesn't.

The analysts on TV, bless their clever little hearts, will try to draw a comparison between Manning and his counterpart on the 49ers, plucky ol' Alex Smith, two number one overall picks drafted seven years apart. This exercise in compare and contrast will not flatter Smith at all and will most likely make you sad—hence the drinking.

Try not to let the Mean Football-Talking Men on the TV ruin your day; it is not their intent to personally provoke you. Also, if you can help it, try not to cast too envious a glare at Manning.

The 49ers franchise had a fairly decent run of franchise quarterbacks not that long ago, after all.

No matter how lopsided Sunday's affair gets, the most important thing to remember is that the most influential man in the 49ers organization is not Smith at all. Nor is it Frank Gore, Patrick Willis, or even coach Mike Singletary.

No, the guy who'll play the biggest role in determining the 49ers future is general manager Scot "I traded the second "t" in my name for Carolina's first round pick" McCloughan.

Singletary's face might be the one that's on all the billboards, but he can only coach the people that McCloughan puts in front of him.

In past seasons the team has gone the Dan Snyder/Al Davis/Jerry Jones route in an effort to improve themselves through the acquisition of past-their-prime free agents, and while it would be unfair to label Nate Clements and Justin Smith as "busts," neither has lived up to the expectations that their exorbitant paychecks warrant.

Meanwhile, the elite teams such as the Patriots, Colts, and Steelers continue building their rosters through the draft and by making shrewd trades.

The 49ers have been terrible for quite a long time and the only way they'll pull out of their tailspin is by nailing the draft—especially in the first round—for a few consecutive years and accumulating talent.

Signing him was a god forsaken chore, but if first impressions mean anything, Michael Crabtree will work out as a wise pick from the 2009 draft, which is incidentally the first one that McCloughan has had the final call on.

The 49ers did quite well for themselves in 2007 with Willis and tackle Joe Staley and thanks to Singletary's tough love, it might turn out that the 2006 pick of Vernon Davis wasn't all that bad either.

The jury is still out on 2008 first rounder Kentwan Balmer, 2006's other first rounder Manny Lawson, and of course, on the aforementioned Smith.

San Francisco will have two first rounders next season, their own pick and the Panthers'.

If their intentions go beyond simply contending for the NFC West to contending, period, then it's imperative for McCloughan to ace both of those picks next April and quite likely the second rounder as well (I'm looking at you, Chilo Rachal). 

For his part, Smith will have a ten game audition period to prove his selection wasn't a galactic mistake on par with Chernobyl, the Hindenburg, or Crystal Pepsi.

Up to this point Smith's apologists have had several excuses for his disappointing career and they've all been valid to varying degrees.

He was drafted onto what was essentially the roster of an expansion team in terms of talent. He was young and inexperienced. He's had to overcome awful, and at times neglectful coaching. He missed nearly two full seasons to injury. He's had to learn a new offense literally every season of his career.

Most of these excuses are no longer applicable. Smith is healthy now; he's gained experience and perspective, and this is, by his own admission, the most talented roster he's ever been on.

"It's not even close," he said.

It's true that offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye's offense was yet another new one for Smith to learn, but how difficult could that have been if opposing coaches seemed to have it down pat by Week Five?

Indianapolis' defense, which has allowed all of two passing touchdowns in six games, will be a cloudy prism through which to view Smith making his first start since the 2007 season, and having Manning on the opposing sideline does him no favors either.

He deserves a few games to put together a quantifiable body of work with this offense.

If he just doesn't have it in him though, then rest assured that one of McCloughan's first round picks will go toward a passer.

And pray that it won't be Tim Tebow.