Everything You Need to Know About Los Angeles Lakers' Crucial Draft Lottery
LOS ANGELES — On Tuesday, the Los Angeles Lakers will learn their fate.
Did their late season, five-game winning streak cost the franchise two first-round picks?
The answer will be determined by lottery, with the Lakers owning a 46.9 percent chance of landing a top-three selection.
Odds aside, LaVar Ball, father of UCLA prospect Lonzo Ball, is confident the Lakers will draft his son.
"I'm going to keep talking about it until it happens," the Ball patriarch said to Ramona Shelburne of ESPN.com.
Depending on where the Lakers land in the lottery (more on that to come), they'll have roughly a month to make the outspoken Ball a prophet.
Who Will Represent?
President of basketball operations Earvin "Magic" Johnson will sit on the NBA studio's stage in Secaucus, New Jersey, during Tuesday's lottery ceremony, either triumphant or saddled by the sins of the team's previous administration.
General manager Rob Pelinka will witness the actual drawing, sequestered off prior to the television broadcast.
Odds are, the team's new executives will be disappointed. Yes, the Lakers realize they're in the third-best position as far as the No. 1 pick is concerned; however, basic math tells us that having a 46.9 percent chance of landing in the top three means they have a 53.1 percent chance of landing fourth or worse.
What If L.A. Falls Out of the Top 3?
Should that be the case, Los Angeles will need to move in a different direction with no pick to use or barter this summer. Fourth or lower will force the team to send its selection to the Philadelphia 76ers to close out the 2012 Steve Nash trade and a 2019 first-rounder to the Orlando Magic for Dwight Howard (also in 2012).
If it misses out on a lottery pick this year, Los Angeles will have both its own first and second in 2018. Luckily for the team, it would also still have a draft pick in the first round this summer, selecting 28th via the Houston Rockets, the bounty from the Lou Williams trade.
Perhaps a quality prospect like TJ Leaf (UCLA), Ike Anigbogu (UCLA), Luke Kennard (Duke), Jordan Bell (Oregon), Harry Giles (Duke), Bam Adebayo (Kentucky), Ivan Rabb (California) or Jawun Evans (Oklahoma State) will still be available late in the first.
The Lakers have done well in recent drafts, finding Larry Nance Jr. (27th in 2015) and Ivica Zubac (32nd in 2016) with later picks. They'll need to do the same at Nos. 28 and 33.
While they would rather be a competitive team next season, a return to the lottery in 2018 (a likely fate if unable to add a top-three talent this summer) would give the Lakers a shot at upcoming prospects like center DeAndre Ayton, forward Michael Porter, guard Luka Doncic or forward Mohamed Bamba.
Long term, if next year's talent proves to be more impactful than the fourth, fifth or sixth pick in June, the Lakers may benefit in losing their pick—with the caveat that they'd have to win the lottery next year.
There's also free agency to consider. No top-three pick in June means the Lakers won't have $5.6 to 7 million of their salary cap tied up in the pick. Veteran guard Nick Young is expected to opt out of the final year on his contract at $5.7 million.
Additionally, forward/center Tarik Black's $6.7 million contract is not guaranteed for next season. The team also has an option on guard David Nwaba's $1.3 million salary.
According to Basketball Insiders, the Lakers could get to $28.3 million in space under the cap without the pick, Young, Black and Nwaba.
That would be enough to chase a younger, restricted free agent like Nerlens Noel (rights held by the Dallas Mavericks), but the Lakers would still be roughly $2 million short the necessary space to pursue a veteran like Gordon Hayward (Utah Jazz) or Blake Griffin (Los Angeles Clippers).
Longtime veterans like Chris Paul (Clippers) can command up to $35.4 million for next season, further outside the Lakers' price range.
Of course, the Lakers are free to pursue trades to open additional space. The challenge is finding another franchise willing to make a deal that favors Los Angeles.
The Lakers can look to move Corey Brewer's $7.6 million salary or stretch it out over three years at $2.5 million a season. That would help the franchise open enough room to land a higher-priced free agent.
Instead, Los Angeles may choose to keep players like Black and Nwaba, while spending carefully to preserve their spending power for the summer of 2018 when Russell Westbrook (Oklahoma City Thunder) DeMarcus Cousins (New Orleans Pelicans) and Paul George may be free agents.
Should the Lakers look to build by trading draft considerations, they will be limited by the complex rules of the NBA's collective bargaining agreement.
Franchises cannot trade future first-round picks in consecutive seasons. Without their 2017 first, the Lakers would not be able to trade away a future first-round pick until 2021 (owing their 2019 first to Orlando).
What If L.A. Lands In the Top 3?
If the pingpong balls bounce L.A.'s way, the elder Ball will be a happy camper. But here's the catch: His son, the biggest baller in the family, is no lock to don purple and gold next season.
According to Bleacher Report's Kevin Ding, the Lakers, despite having interest in the UCLA standout, have their eyes on Washington's Markelle Fultz, Kansas' Josh Jackson and Kentucky's De'Aaron Fox.
None of this is to say Ball isn't L.A's eventual man—just that the team isn't going to make a decision without considering its options.
Should the Lakers keep the first, they will also save their first-rounder in 2019, sending instead this year's No. 33 pick to Orlando, along with their 2018 second. The 76ers will get the Lakers' 2018 first (unprotected).
With lottery luck, the Lakers can also deal the winning pick, even owing the 76ers their 2018 first, because Los Angeles would still be represented in the first round by the Houston selection. The earliest the Lakers could send an additional future first in trade would be 2020.
The Lakers have a long list of young players that would interest teams around the league like Brandon Ingram, D'Angelo Russell, Julius Randle, Jordan Clarkson, Nance and Zubac.
Both Johnson and Pelinka will be tasked with choosing which players are foundational or expendable.
Randle is the closest to free agency with just one season left on his contract. He's eligible for an extension until Halloween; otherwise he'll become a restricted free agent next July.
Unsigned, Randle will take up $12.4 million of the Lakers' cap space—leaving the team well short of the necessary room to spend freely in 2018.
Russell, Nance and Zubac both have two seasons left before restricted free agency. Ingram and Clarkson have three years left on their deals.
Clarkson is the most expensive, but at $12.5 million a year, he's reasonably paid. Shedding either Randle or Clarkson could put the Lakers in a position to spend next summer.
The team would certainly prefer to move the sizable deals of Luol Deng and Timofey Mozgov, owed a combined $102 million over the next three years. That may prove to be an exceedingly difficult if not impossible task over the short term.
Win Or Lose The Lottery, Patience Is A Virtue For Lakers
It may be some time before the Lakers are truly competitive. Recently deposed executive Jim Buss had given himself three years to get the team back to contention.
He lost his job when that didn't come to pass.
Johnson and Pelinka have time to build the Lakers back into a competitive franchise. Landing a top-three pick would give them another young piece for their emerging core or a valuable trade asset this summer.
Without it, the franchise won't fade from existence.
The lottery will help decide the Lakers' path. They may face another year of the same mediocrity, but as long as the young players are clearly developing, patience may be the best path for the franchise.
Lakers Insider Notebook
Additional Picks
Once the Lakers pay the price for Nash and Howard, they will be free and clear of almost all of their draft obligations.
Los Angeles still owes the Cleveland Cavaliers a second-rounder in 2019. The Lakers traded the pick to the Pacers for Roy Hibbert in 2015, which was then passed on to the Cavaliers for Rakeem Christmas.
In the meantime, the Lakers added a couple of picks last summer when they acquired Jose Calderon from the Chicago Bulls. The Lakers will get a second-rounder from the Denver Nuggets (via the Bulls) in 2018, along with a Chicago second in 2019.
If the Lakers win a top-three pick in the lottery on Tuesday, they will have three firsts and two seconds over the next three drafts.
If they lose the lottery, they'll have two first-rounders and four seconds through 2019.
Lakers' Lottery History
The Lakers have never won the top pick in the current lottery format.
James Worthy (1982) and Johnson (1979) were the team's only two top overall picks, predating the lottery (1985).
The only time the Lakers have improved their position in the lottery was in 2015. The team climbed from third to second to take Russell.
The Lakers dropped one slot in 2014 from six to seven to take Randle.
To date, they have taken five lottery picks in Eddie Jones (10th in 1994), Andrew Bynum (10th in 2005), Randle and both Russell and Ingram with the second picks in 2015 and 2016, respectively.
The Lakers also picked second in 1960, taking Jerry West out of West Virginia University.
Only the San Antonio Spurs (three) have fewer lottery appearances than the Lakers (six).
Since 1990, the team with the third-best odds held their position five times (18.5 percent), climbed to either first or second seven times (25.9 percent) and fell to fourth, fifth or sixth on 15 occasions (55.6 percent).
Important Upcoming Dates
The lottery is on Tuesday; the NBA draft is on June 22.
Young must decide on his option by June 21. The Lakers have until June 24 to take Nwaba's option; he can be traded after June 21 but only if the Lakers pick up his contract for next season.
Black's $6.7 million salary is guaranteed on July 4.
The Lakers can start negotiating with free agents on July 1 (technically June 30 at 9:01 p.m. in Los Angeles). While players can agree to terms verbally, the NBA is in moratorium until July 6.
Until a contract is signed, any deals made during the moratorium are non-binding (as the Dallas Mavericks learned with DeAndre Jordan in 2015).
The Lakers will once again participate in the Las Vegas Summer League. While their schedule isn't set yet, the league runs from July 7 to 17.
Finally, in addition to Randle's extension deadline, the Lakers have until October 31 to pick up team options for Russell, Ingram and Nance.
All quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Email Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him on Twitter @EricPincus.
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