Bleacher Report's MLB Experts Make Key 2017 Spring Training Predictions
Step outside and take a whiff, and you'll smell the baseball.
Yes, it's finally that time of year. Pitchers and catchers will soon show up in Arizona and Florida, followed swiftly by everyone else. There will be a couple of weeks of light exercise and then the games will begin. Ah, the wonderful symphony of spring training.
How will things shake out this spring? Well, that's a fortune we're keen on telling. And we are:
- Danny Knobler, MLB Lead Writer
- Joel Reuter, National MLB Columnist
- Zachary D. Rymer, MLB Lead Writer
- Jacob Shafer, National MLB Columnist
This spring's list of questions worth answering goes to 11. Included within are predictions for loose offseason threads that will be tied up, which players will go boom and bust and who will win the big position battles. And many more!
In short, we're here to get everyone ready for spring training. Fun for the whole family!
Where Will Matt Wieters Sign?
1 of 11
| Knobler | Reuter | Rymer | Shafer |
| Rays | Nationals | Angels | Angels |
Knobler: Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays are always open to a bargain, and at this stage of the winter, Wieters could qualify (even with Scott Boras as his agent). They also need another right-handed bat and can’t be sure how soon Wilson Ramos will recover from surgery and be ready to play. It can’t hurt that Wieters is familiar with the American League East.
Reuter: Washington Nationals
Selling the farm for Adam Eaton looked like an all-in move by the Nationals. Their inactivity since argues otherwise. The lack of a proven closer has been the big talking point, but catcher also looks like an area of weakness if Derek Norris (.186 BA, .583 OPS) doesn't bounce back. If Wieters is open to a one-year deal, it looks like an obvious fit.
Rymer: Los Angeles Angels
The Angels already have a chance to contend in 2017, but said chance would be better if they had more stability behind the dish. Hence their interest in Wieters, which Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reported last month. His bat would give their lineup some extra power. And because the club's hurlers mostly pitch to contact, the veteran's framing issues wouldn't hurt too much.
Shafer: Los Angeles Angels
The Halos seem like the most logical landing spot for the winter's forgotten free agent, though they're apparently willing to offer only one year. At this point, Wieters may have to take it.
Who Will Be the Best Player Moved in a Trade?
2 of 11
| Knobler | Reuter | Rymer | Shafer |
| David Robertson | Tommy La Stella | Todd Frazier | Jose Quintana |
Knobler: David Robertson, Chicago White Sox
Spring is a terrible time to evaluate relievers (no adrenaline, late innings filled with minor leaguers). But it’s also a time when teams that are supposed to contend can get nervous about what they have in the bullpen. Ken Rosenthal wrote on FoxSports.com that the Nationals have continued to discuss a Robertson trade. Given their ninth-inning uncertainty and the White Sox’s commitment to rebuild, it would hardly be a surprise to see that deal happen.
Reuter: Tommy La Stella, Chicago Cubs
I don't see a Khris Davis-level trade going down this spring. That said, the Chicago Cubs' decision on who fills the final bench spot between Matt Szczur and La Stella could put a useful player on the trade block. La Stella did not take kindly to a minor league assignment late last season, so expect him to push for a trade if he doesn’t win the job.
Rymer: Todd Frazier, Chicago White Sox
Frazier is a free agent after 2017, so the clock is ticking on his trade value. That's a reason for the White Sox to have a sense of urgency about moving him, and there are a number of teams that could use his power at third base or first base. It's easy to imagine one of them getting antsy enough to meet Chicago's demands.
Shafer: Jose Quintana, Chicago White Sox
The Houston Astros got two picks from the St. Louis Cardinals for the data breach scandal. Now, they could rekindle talks for the White Sox lefty with a renewed willingness to part with top prospects.
Which Big Offseason Addition Will Make the Best First Impression?
3 of 11
| Knobler | Reuter | Rymer | Shafer |
| Aroldis Chapman | Dexter Fowler | Mark Melancon | Chris Sale |
Knobler: Aroldis Chapman, New York Yankees
I’m not saying it will end up being the best deal, or even a good deal, but just as he did last year, a guy showing up in camp throwing smoke will excite people.
Reuter: Dexter Fowler, St. Louis Cardinals
There's a reason Fowler's Cubs teammates reacted like this when he returned to the club last spring. On top of being a great clubhouse guy, he'll completely transform that lineup out of the leadoff spot, improve their overall outfield defense and fit right in with the winning culture in St. Louis.
Rymer: Mark Melancon, San Francisco Giants
Imagine walking through a scorching desert and suddenly coming upon a water park. That's basically how the Giants arrived at Melancon. Their bullpen blew an MLB-worst 30 saves in 2016, and the only surprise in retrospect is that it was only 30. After putting up a 1.80 ERA and saving 147 games over the last four years, Melancon only needs to be himself to make the Giants fall in love with him.
Shafer: Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox
Pitchers tend to be ahead of hitters early in the spring, and Red Sox fans will be ready and waiting to take their new ace for a test drive.
Which 2016 Star Will Look Primed for Regression?
4 of 11
| Knobler | Reuter | Rymer | Shafer |
| J.A. Happ | DJ LeMahieu | Rick Porcello | Tyler Naquin |
Knobler: J.A. Happ, Toronto Blue Jays
You could argue he wasn’t really a star, but he won 20 games and got enough votes to finish sixth in the Cy Young race. Cy Young winner Rick Porcello was the only pitcher in baseball with better run support in 2016. Porcello could regress, too, but Happ’s age (34, versus 28 for Porcello) makes him the more likely candidate.
Reuter: DJ LeMahieu, Colorado Rockies
The reigning NL batting champ had a career 81 OPS+ heading into last season, and even when he hit .301 in 2015, it was accompanied by a 95 OPS+. That jumped up to a .348 average and 128 OPS+ last season, and an unsustainably high .388 BABIP was a big reason why. He has plenty of value as a Gold Glove defender, but expect him to return to being a roughly league-average hitter.
Rymer: Rick Porcello, Boston Red Sox
Porcello's Cy Young season in 2016 didn't come from nowhere. He made adjustments that should also help him in 2017. But given his track record, I don't trust he can repeat last year's career-low .269 BABIP. Besides which, this is the same guy who put up a 7.85 ERA in the spring of 2014 and a 9.77 ERA in the spring of 2016.
Shafer: Tyler Naquin, Cleveland Indians
After a top-three Rookie of the Year finish in 2016 with the Indians, Naquin's unsustainably high batting average on balls in play and extreme lefty/righty splits will catch up to him en route to a sophomore slump.
Which 2016 Bust Will Look Primed for a Rebound?
5 of 11
| Knobler | Reuter | Rymer | Shafer |
| Pablo Sandoval | Chris Archer | Jason Heyward | Dallas Keuchel |
Knobler: Pablo Sandoval, Boston Red Sox
He’s thin (or at least thinner)! As Nick Cafardo wrote in the Boston Globe, Panda "is trying." It won’t take much to outdo his first two Red Sox seasons and especially 2016, when he lost his job in the spring, got hurt and had just seven plate appearances. He has a long way to go to rescue his deal from being a disaster, but he’s 30 years old and still talented. Spring training, at the very least, should go well.
Reuter: Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays
I went into last season with Archer, Sonny Gray and Marcus Stroman on my fantasy baseball team thinking I was sitting pretty. Needless to say, I was not a postseason participant. I’m totally on board with Jacob's theory of Archer's using a big performance in the World Baseball Classic as a springboard to reaching superstardom in 2017.
Rymer: Jason Heyward, Chicago Cubs
After what he did to me in this category last year, I'm not falling into the Sandoval trap again. How about the J-Hey Kid instead? He can't look any worse after putting up just a .631 OPS in the first year of his $184 million contract. He also has the right idea in trying to recapture the swing he had back in 2012, the year he hit 27 bombs with an .814 OPS.
Shafer: Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros
Assuming the shoulder issues that turned him from a Cy Young Award winner to a guy with a 4.55 ERA are resolved, Keuchel should give the 'Stros a dose of optimism this spring.
Which Established Player Will Look Primed for a Breakout?
6 of 11
| Knobler | Reuter | Rymer | Shafer |
| Carlos Correa | Byron Buxton | Christian Yelich | Keon Broxton |
Knobler: Carlos Correa, Houston Astros
Correa had a good 2016, his first full season in the big leagues, but the focus went to other young shortstops. Corey Seager won the Rookie of the Year (and nearly the MVP), while Francisco Lindor and Addison Russell met in the World Series. This could be the year Correa grabs the spotlight back and reminds us why so many thought he was already the best shortstop in the game when he was a rookie.
Reuter: Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
I may be in the minority at this point, but I still think Buxton is going to be a star. He posted a 1.011 OPS with six doubles and nine home runs over the final month of the season after returning to the majors as a September call-up. That’ll be the first step toward the breakout we’ve been expecting.
Rymer: Christian Yelich, Miami Marlins
Beating the Yelich drum has been at least 10 percent of my general existence in recent weeks. Might as well keep it up here. The dude's already a Gold Glover and a Silver Slugger. He just hasn't been an All-Star yet. That should change this year, as he's primed to add some serious power to go with his excellent hitting, baserunning and defense.
Shafer: Keon Broxton, Milwaukee Brewers
It's a stretch to call him "established" after only 82 big league games, but Broxton flashed impressive power potential last season and will get ample playing time with the rebuilding Brewers.
Which Prospect Will Steal the Show?
7 of 11
| Knobler | Reuter | Rymer | Shafer |
| Cody Bellinger | Michael Kopech | Manny Margot | Clint Frazier |
Knobler: Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers’ plan is to have Bellinger begin the season in the minor leagues, but remember, that was the Cubs’ plan (and eventual reality) with Kris Bryant two springs ago. Bellinger may not be as advanced now as Bryant was then, but he has as much power as any prospect in the game. And in spring training, power is one of the first things that catches your attention.
Reuter: Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox
Who doesn’t love a 105 mph fastball? Kopech is only 20, and he hasn’t pitched above High-A. There’s no chance he’ll win a roster spot, but being in camp as a non-roster invitee will give him an opportunity to put that electric fastball on display.
Rymer: Manny Margot, San Diego Padres
With all respect to Hunter Renfroe and his rooftop power, Margot will be the show-stealer in Padres camp. He's not on many radars, for one. For two, he's built to excite. The MLB.com crew rates him as the best defender of all prospects, and he can do more than just field. He's also a speed demon on the bases and a good contact hitter.
Shafer: Clint Frazier, New York Yankees
He won't make the New York Yankees Opening Day roster. But with his outsized personality, flowing red locks and five-tool potential, Frazier will turn some heads in the Grapefruit League.
What Will Be the Best AL Position Battle, and Who Will Win?
8 of 11
| Knobler | Reuter | Rymer | Shafer |
| Red Sox SP | Red Sox C | Red Sox C | Yankees RF |
Knobler: Boston Red Sox Starting Rotation
Two years ago, we wondered if the Red Sox had a No. 1 starter. Last year, we wondered what they had behind David Price. So it’s major progress that one of the big battles in spring will be for the final two spots (behind Price, Chris Sale and Porcello), and that the Sox have three legit candidates for the two spots (Steven Wright, Drew Pomeranz and Eduardo Rodriguez).
The guess here: The Red Sox start the season with Wright and Pomeranz in the last two spots, but Rodriguez gets a chance fairly early in the season and runs with it.
Reuter: Boston Red Sox Catcher
While the No. 5 starter battle is intriguing, deciding who will be handling the staff in Boston this season looks like an even more compelling competition. Sandy Leon gets first dibs, but his .392 BABIP from last year is not sustainable, and there’s a defensive standout (Christian Vazquez) and a former top prospect (Blake Swihart) who will be pushing him.
Rymer: Boston Red Sox Catcher
I don't know if this is the AL's "best" position battle, but it's certainly one that deserves a lot more attention. Leon is the incumbent in good standing. Vazquez is a defensive gem. Swihart was an elite prospect just two years ago. That's an intriguing trio. My gut says Vazquez's glove will win out, with Leon nabbing the backup role and Swihart going to the minors.
Shafer: Yankees Right Field
Speaking of the Yanks outfield, there's a battle brewing in right between powerful rookie Aaron Judge and 27-year-old Aaron Hicks. A scalding spring by either player will tip it, but here's betting Judge wins the job after getting a stamp of approval from principle owner Hal Steinbrenner.
What Will Be the Best NL Position Battle, and Who Will Win?
9 of 11
| Knobler | Reuter | Rymer | Shafer |
| Dodgers OF | Cardinals SP | Nationals CL | Dodgers OF |
Knobler: Dodgers Outfield
Manager Dave Roberts said he expects an "intense competition" for the three spots, with no outfielder completely guaranteed a full-time spot. Joc Pederson in center field is the safest bet, but his .125 average against left-handers turned him into more of a platoon player last year.
Even if Pederson becomes an everyday player, Roberts has to figure out what to do with Andrew Toles, Andre Ethier, Trayce Thompson, Scott Van Slyke and Yasiel Puig. The guess here: Roberts begins the season with Pederson playing every day and Puig playing every day in right field but without naming a starter in left.
Reuter: St. Louis Cardinals Starting Rotation
Carlos Martinez, Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn and Mike Leake are locks for the first four spots in the St. Louis rotation, leaving Michael Wacha and Alex Reyes to duke it out for the No. 5 starter gig. The loser could be a valuable weapon out of the pen.
Rymer: Washington Nationals Closer
I usually laugh in the general direction of the term "proven closer," but even I think it's weird to see a championship-hopeful team without one in its bullpen. Barring a trade, the Nats must hope to find a future proven closer by pitting in-house options against each other, namely: Shawn Kelley and Blake Treinen. The best guess is that Kelley's track record as a strikeout pitcher gives him the edge.
Shafer: Dodgers Outfield
There are so many stories here: The ongoing saga of Puig; the Cinderella story of Andrew Toles; veteran Andre Ethier and his $17.5 million salary returning from an injury-shortened season. Add Thompson and Van Slyke and you have five guys competing for two spots (assuming Pederson remains ensconced in center). Predicted winners: Ethier in left and Puig in right.
Which Team Will Look Better Than Advertised?
10 of 11
| Knobler | Reuter | Rymer | Shafer |
| Braves | Diamondbacks | Blue Jays | Rockies |
Knobler: Atlanta Braves
Spring can belong to young and up-and-coming teams, and the Braves fit the description. They may not be ready to win, but kids like Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albies are ready to impress. The key will be if some of the young pitchers seem to be on the fast track, too.
Reuter: Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks have an intriguing crop of starting pitching talent with some combination of Robbie Ray, Taijuan Walker, Shelby Miller, Patrick Corbin, Archie Bradley, Braden Shipley and prospect Anthony Banda flanking ace Zack Greinke. Throw in the returns of A.J. Pollock and David Peralta from injury and this is a team that could be a post-hype contender.
Rymer: Toronto Blue Jays
Is this cheating? It might be. But it does seem like the Blue Jays are being largely written off after losing some key parts this winter. They still have a power-filled and defensively talented lineup, as well as a stacked starting rotation. I wouldn't put them on par with the Red Sox in the AL East, but the Blue Jays should re-open a lot of eyes this spring.
Shafer: Colorado Rockies
All the emphasis in the NL West is on the Dodgers and Giants. The Rockies, though, have a deep lineup and enough pitching to be a factor. They'll show it in the exhibition slate.
Which Team Will Look Worse Than Advertised?
11 of 11
| Knobler | Reuter | Rymer | Shafer |
| Mets | Rangers | Dodgers | Cubs |
Knobler: New York Mets
This isn’t a prediction of a bad season. It’s only a prediction that the spring will be rockier than the Mets hope and expect. They have too many players coming off injuries, including most of the rotation and most of the infield. While the early reports have been good, it’s hard to imagine all the rehabs will be smooth all the way from now to April.
Reuter: Texas Rangers
I'm still not sold on the collection of starters the Rangers have assembled behind Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels being good enough to hold off the Astros and Seattle Mariners in the AL West.
Rymer: Los Angeles Dodgers
Given the conservative nature of such things, it's downright shocking to see PECOTA projecting the Dodgers to win 99 games this year. It's hard enough to see that happening now. It'll be even harder to see while watching them sort out their outfield, starting rotation and bullpen this spring.
Shafer: Chicago Cubs
Sorry, Cubs fans. I say this only because of how impossibly high expectations have been set. After last season's curse-busting magic, any inevitable injuries or spring slumps can only feel like a letdown.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs and MLB.com.
.jpg?w=600 "Report: Lawrence Wants Out of NY")
.png?w=600 "Trae Responds to NYC Mayor 🤫")
.jpg?w=600 "Browns GM Speaks on Trade Buzz")