Bleacher Report's MLB Experts Make Key 2016 Spring Training Predictions
The long, cold winter may still be going strong in some parts of the country, but one wouldn't know it in sunny Arizona and Florida, as pitchers and catchers have officially begun reporting to spring training.
We're still a few weeks from Grapefruit and Cactus League games getting underway, but in the meantime we've decided to take a crack at predicting some various odds and ends surrounding the 2016 spring training action.
These five writers made up our panel of prognosticators:
- Seth Gruen, National MLB Columnist
- Danny Knobler, MLB Lead Writer
- Joel Reuter, National MLB Columnist
- Zachary Rymer, MLB Lead Writer
- Jacob Shafer, National MLB Columnist
We'll tackle a list of 10 questions, ranging from first impressions to position battles to breakout performers to which teams may be lining up to surprise or disappoint.
The offseason is almost over, but for now enjoy these questions as a spring training overview of sorts.
Where Will Dexter Fowler, Yovani Gallardo and Ian Desmond Sign?
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| Desmond |  |  | | | |
| Fowler |  | | | |  |
| Gallardo | | | | | |
Gruen: Desmond: CWS, Fowler: BAL, Gallardo: BAL
A deal appears close to done between Gallardo and the Orioles, which indicates that Baltimore is, in fact, trying to make a final push in free agency. With needs in the outfield, it seems Fowler and his high on-base percentage would be welcome in Baltimore. According to MLB Network's Jon Heyman (h/t MLB.com), the White Sox have been the team most linked to Desmond, and with Chicago pushing to compete in 2016, he would be an upgrade at shortstop from Tyler Saladino, who fits better as a utility player on a contending team.
Knobler: Desmond: TB, Fowler: CWS, Gallardo: BAL
The White Sox have enough outfielders, but they watched from across town what Fowler did last season with the Cubs and could see him as a last-minute bargain upgrade. The Orioles have been comfortable as late-winter shoppers in the past and seem ready to get a deal done with Gallardo (they could even end up with Fowler, too). The Rays have also had success waiting out the market, and while they don’t love the idea of surrendering a draft pick, they could see Desmond as too good a deal to pass up.
Reuter: Desmond: CWS, Fowler: BAL, Gallardo: BAL
Gallardo to the Orioles seems like a foregone conclusion at this point, and once the team surrenders its first-round pick to sign him, it really has no reason not to go after Fowler as well with a clear need in the outfield. As for Desmond, there's still a chance a team such as the Angels swoops in with the idea of using him as a utility player, but at this point the White Sox make too much sense.
Rymer: Desmond: CWS, Fowler: BAL, Gallardo: BAL
I feel like I've predicted about a dozen different landing spots for these guys throughout the winter, but I'm kinda-sorta-totally confident I have it right this time. The Orioles are already circling Gallardo and are also interested in Fowler, per Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports. Both fit well there, as the O's badly need pitching and corner outfield depth. Desmond in Chicago, meanwhile, is a square peg in a square hole after what the team's shortstops did on offense in 2015.
Shafer: Desmond: CWS, Fowler: TEX, Gallardo: BAL
Desmond will help the White Sox complete their left-side-of-the-infield makeover as they try to claw into the picture in a noisy AL Central. Gallardo and Fowler, meanwhile, could do the qualifying-offer polka. Meaning: If Gallardo goes to the Orioles, as has been widely rumored by Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun and others, the Rangers might be more apt to grab Fowler, since they'd get a draft pick from Baltimore to help offset the one they'd lose by signing Fowler.
Which Offseason Addition Will Make the Strongest First Impression?
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| John Lackey | David Price | Byung Ho Park | Todd Frazier | Zack Greinke |
Gruen: SP John Lackey, CHC
The Cubs will likely pare back on the number of innings 37-year-old Lackey throws in spring training. But by the time Chicago starts the season, it will be clear that the Lackey signing will make for a much stronger Cubs rotation in 2016. Having World Series-winning experience, Lackey, like Jon Lester last season, will bring leadership to the young Chicago clubhouse.
Knobler: SP David Price, BOS
Look, nobody is going to be judging David Price by how he throws in spring training, but beyond signing a top pitcher, the Red Sox were signing an ace. Price will walk into camp and immediately be that ace. He understands what it means to lead a rotation, and I won’t be surprised to read stories about how his impact is being felt right away.
Reuter: 1B/DH Byung Ho Park, MIN
Even after Jung Ho Kang blazed a trail from the KBO to MLB last season, there are still plenty of skeptics when it comes to how well offensive production will translate from such a hitter friendly atmosphere. No one expects Park to come anywhere near the 1.150 OPS or 53 home runs he put up last season, but a few tape-measure bombs and his strong bat-flip game could make him one of the stars of spring training.
Rymer: 3B Todd Frazier, CWS
The White Sox's trade for Frazier is probably the most overlooked impact move of the offseason, but not for long. He's a strong spring performer, with a career .827 OPS in the exhibition season. And more to the point, his power and defense will easily get the attention of a White Sox fanbase that saw neither at third base in 2015.
Shafer: SP Zack Greinke, ARI
It's almost a given Greinke will regress after his ridiculous 2015 campaign. But playing in the desert in front of his new home-state fans, he should show enough to tantalize, especially since pitchers are generally ahead of hitters early in the exhibition slate.
Which 2015 Star Will Look Primed for Regression?
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| Bryce Harper | Starting Rotation | Alex Rodriguez | John Lackey | Yoenis Cespedes |
Gruen: RF Bryce Harper, WAS
Am I splitting hairs on what we mean by “regression”? Sure, but these are my picks, so I get to do that. Do I expect Harper to look anything less than a contender to repeat as National League MVP? Heck no. But I don’t expect him to look like a player who will again hit .330 with 42 homers. Who wouldn’t regress from that kind of year?
Knobler: NYM Rotation
Even with regression, the New York Mets rotation should still be good, but the combination of a long season followed by a short winter will make this the toughest season these young starters have ever experienced. Their bodies are telling them the offseason should still have a month to go. The calendar says it’s time to throw.
Reuter: DH Alex Rodriguez, NYY
Rodriguez was one of the surprise stars of the first half when he hit .278 with an .898 OPS, but he fell off dramatically after the All-Star break with a .216 average and .772 OPS. Entering his age-40 season, there's a good chance he'll be more second half than first half in 2016, and it could start with a slow spring.
Rymer: SP John Lackey, CHC
Lackey works well as a default answer, as he seemingly overachieved his way to a 2.77 ERA last year. I wonder if he can do that again with his strikeout rate regressing from its 2013 revival. Besides which, he's typically just an OK spring performer with a 4.62 career ERA.
Shafer: OF Yoenis Cespedes, NYM
The Mets got Cespedes back on a win-win three-year deal with a one-year opt out. And he should provide an offensive boost. But after the Ruthian second-half tear he went on last year in Queens, any struggles, even in spring, will feel like a flashing warning light.
Which 2015 Bust Will Look Primed for a Big Year?
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| Adam LaRoche | Yasiel Puig | Yasmany Tomas | Pablo Sandoval | Jeff Samardzija |
Gruen: DH Adam LaRoche, CWS
Was there a more disappointing signing in 2015 than LaRoche, who hit .207 with 12 homers in 2015? There’s nowhere to go but up. Expect LaRoche's power, at least, to come back this spring, if not his bat altogether. If not, the White Sox are in trouble.
Knobler: RF Yasiel Puig, LAD
No one would have blamed the Dodgers for selling low on Puig, described to Bleacher Report’s Scott Miller by one ex-Dodger as “the worst person I’ve ever seen in this game.” But the talent is still there; according to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times, Puig is in better shape, and perhaps he’ll respond better to a new manager.
Reuter: RF Yasmany Tomas, ARI
A six-year, $68.5 million deal last offseason made Yasmany Tomas one of the most talked-about players in the league heading into spring training, but his rookie season was disappointing, as he finished with a .707 OPS and minus-1.3 WAR. The trade of Ender Inciarte means Tomas will see everyday at-bats, and after a year of settling in, he could be ready to break out.
Rymer: 3B Pablo Sandoval, BOS
Well, it's not like he can possibly get any worse. But it also helps that he's supposedly lost 20 pounds. That should help him look a little more spry at third base and will hopefully also help him regain some of the bat speed that went missing in 2015. And did I mention that he can't get any worse?
Shafer: SP Jeff Samardzija, SF
After a disastrous campaign with the White Sox, Samardzija is going to benefit from the spacious confines and oppressive marine layer at AT&T Park. That won't be a factor in the Cactus League, but he will have the Giants' stout infield defense behind him and a chance to tease the power stuff that made him an All-Star in 2014.
Which Established MLB Player Will Look Primed for a Breakout Season?
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| Starlin Castro | Giancarlo Stanton | Wil Myers | Marcus Stroman | Marcell Ozuna |
Gruen: 2B Starlin Castro, NYY
You wouldn’t know that Castro has played in three All-Star Games, though he is just 25 years old. Not with the way he was treated in Chicago. But now on a contending team with the Yankees and with Castro likely to hit lower in the lineup—where he has flourished—a change of scenery could turn the trade into the move of the offseason.
Knobler: RF Giancarlo Stanton, MIA
Can you have a breakout season when you’ve already finished second in MVP voting, won a home run title and signed a huge contract? Yes, because Stanton has the ability to become an even bigger star, and this could be the year it happens. New manager, new hitting coach, and the Marlins moved in the fences at what had been one of the toughest home run parks in the majors.
Reuter: 1B Wil Myers, SD
Wil Myers has played just 147 games the past two seasons while dealing with a pair of wrist injuries, but he's still capable of being the hitter we saw in 2013 when he posted an .831 OPS with 13 home runs in 335 at-bats to win AL Rookie of the Year. A clean bill of health, coupled with a move to first base where he's better suited defensively, could help him finally live up to his potential.
Rymer: SP Marcus Stroman, TOR
Stroman has been good when healthy, posting a 3.31 ERA in 30 career appearances. Beyond that, he has all the fixings of a star. He has great stuff in his arsenal, an idea how to use it and enough swagger to make Han Solo look like a punk.
Shafer: CF Marcell Ozuna, MIA
Ozuna has all the tools to be a special player, and new Marlins hitting coach Barry Bonds thinks he can turn him into a 30/30 contributor, per Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Even if that doesn't happen, it says here Ozuna will take the next step in his third full big league season and earn All-Star chatter.
Which Prospect Will Steal the Show?
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| Corey Seager | Byron Buxton | Tyler Glasnow | Jon Gray | Dansby Swanson |
Gruen: SS Corey Seager, LAD
C’mon now—does any prospect come with more national fanfare? He is the first in a litany of talented prospects who are expected to make their way through the Dodgers season and is the story of this spring training.
Knobler: CF Byron Buxton, MIN
He’s dropped behind Corey Seager on all the prospect rankings, but Buxton is the type of player you go to spring training to see. He may not hit home runs all over Florida the way Kris Bryant did all over Arizona last spring, but then again, maybe he will. The fun thing about Buxton is that while his speed is game-changing, the rest of his game can be top-flight too. The Twins made room for him in center field by trading the promising Aaron Hicks to the Yankees. Minnesota loves to challenge a young player, and Buxton could be ready for the challenge.
Reuter: SP Tyler Glasnow, PIT
Remember back in 2013 when then-prospect Michael Wacha was the talk of spring training on the strength of 11.2 scoreless innings? Glasnow is capable of making a similarly dominant impression this spring, as he's overpowered hitters every step of the way in the minors. Jeff Locke and Ryan Vogelsong will be looking over their shoulders by May.
Rymer: SP Jon Gray, COL
For a guy who was the No. 3 overall pick in the 2013 draft, Gray has become invisible quickly. But we shouldn't ignore that all the fixings for an ace are there, as he is a big dude with a hard fastball and a nasty slider. And now he has a curveball! If that new pitch works out, he could look a lot like the guy who dominated in four road starts at the major league level last year.
Shafer: SS Dansby Swanson, ATL
After coming to the Braves from the D-Backs in the lopsided (toward Atlanta) Shelby Miller trade, Swanson has a chance to break camp with the big club, Atlanta skipper Fredi Gonzalez told reporters. That should provide extra motivation for the 22-year-old Vanderbilt alum and No. 1 overall pick, who hit .289 with an .876 OPS in 22 games at low-A last year.
What Will Be the Best AL Position Battle, and Who Will Win?
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| No. 5 SP | 2B | No. 5 SP | Closer | Closer |
Gruen: Blue Jays' No. 5 Starter, Drew Hutchison
Hutchison stunk last year, which is the only reason this is a discussion. Seeing as he has proved he can be counted upon to pitch every fifth day—he has 60 combined starts the last two seasons—it appears he is the player that management should root for.
Knobler: Royals' Second Baseman, Omar Infante
Remember when Kansas City fans nearly voted Omar Infante into the All-Star Game? Then, the Royals traded for Ben Zobrist, and by the time they won the World Series, Infante was hurt and forgotten. Now, Zobrist is gone, and maybe the biggest question the world champs face this spring is whether Infante gets his job back. They do have other options, with Christian Colon expected to see time this spring and with 20-year-old Raul A. Mondesi not all that far from being ready. The guess here is that Infante opens the season, but this is one to watch.
Reuter: Blue Jays' No. 5 Starter, Drew Hutchison
The Blue Jays actually have the two most compelling spring battles with their closer job and No. 5 starter spot both up for grabs. For my money, the No. 5 starter battle is more interesting. It has wider-reaching ramifications, namely what role Aaron Sanchez will fill this season after spending time as a starter and an eighth-inning reliever. Hutchison is just a year removed from posting a 4.48 ERA and nine strikeouts per nine innings over 184.2 innings, and as long as he doesn't implode this spring, the job should be his.
Rymer: Blue Jays' Closer, Roberto Osuna
Position battles are generally boring, but this one actually carries some intrigue. Roberto Osuna was dominant last year, but Drew Storen was also largely dominant and is seemingly in town precisely because he wasn't going to close in Washington. But here's thinking Osuna walks away with the job. I'm of the mind he has better stuff than Storen, and the latter's 7.08 career ERA in spring training doesn't inspire much confidence.
Shafer: Blue Jays' Closer, Drew Storen
Osuna is the incumbent, and the 21-year-old looks primed to assume ninth-inning duties for years to come. But the arrival of Storen complicates the picture. Toronto may well prefer the veteran, at least initially. Storen posted a 1.73 ERA and converted 29 of 31 saves opportunities last season with the Nats before Jonathan Papelbon rode into town.
What Will Be the Best NL Position Battle, and Who Will Win?
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| No. 5 SP | SS | LF | SS | SS |
Gruen: Pirates' No. 5 Starter, Tyler Glasnow
I know there have been reports the Pirates will wait on Glasnow so as not to start his service clock. But given the level of competition in their division, the National League Central, can they afford to wait? Even if just for a week? Expect Glasnow to have a big spring and force management into putting him on the Opening Day roster.
Knobler: Nationals' Shortstop, Danny Espinosa
The Nationals have reworked their infield, signing Daniel Murphy and moving Anthony Rendon back to third base. But the excitement this spring will be at shortstop, and it will mostly center on how close 22-year-old Trea Turner is to taking over. The Nationals seem to prefer the idea of Danny Espinosa starting the season, and they signed Stephen Drew to give themselves a third option. Turner, though, is the potential game-changer. The guess here is that he’ll impress and that they’ll think seriously about giving him the job, but at the end they’ll give Espinosa the first shot.
Reuter: Reds' Left Fielder, Who Knows?
I can't recall a position being more wide open going into the preseason than the Reds' left field job will be this spring. Jake Cave, Ivan DeJesus Jr., Adam Duvall, Phillip Ervin, Tyler Holt, Yorman Rodriguez, Scott Schebler, Kyle Waldrop and top prospect Jesse Winker will all be in camp, and all nine guys have at least an outside shot of earning playing time.
Rymer: Nationals' Shortstop, Trea Turner
The starting shortstop gig for a team with eyes on the World Series? That's a hard position battle to beat, and I'll go with the kid to win it. Espinosa is a solid defender, but Turner has the goods to be an exciting all-around player. Spring training is a good place for that kind of potential to shine.
Shafer: Nationals' Shortstop, Danny Espinosa
Espinosa will simply be keeping a place warm for Turner, the Nationals' shortstop of the future. But unless Turner absolutely blows Washington's decision-makers away with his spring performance, expect the 22-year-old to get a little more seasoning before taking over the position.
Which Team Will Look Better Than Advertised?
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Gruen: Seattle Mariners
Well, I did write this just 24 hours ago. So, it’s a little too early to back out. The Mariners didn’t have the splashiest offseason, but they did address their issues of getting on base in 2015. That alone should improve a team that retains its power from a season ago.
Knobler: Miami Marlins
Miami actually played well down the stretch last year (16-10 in September), but the atmosphere around the team was terrible. That should change this spring with Don Mattingly in charge, and at least for now he should still be in the honeymoon stage of his relationship with nutty owner Jeffrey Loria. Plenty could go wrong, but it won’t be a surprise if the Marlins have a positive spring.
Reuter: Oakland Athletics
To say the Oakland bullpen was bad last season doesn't quite do it justice, as it ranked last in the AL with a 4.63 ERA and converted just 52.8 percent of save chances (28-of-53) on the year. That all added up to a disastrous 19-35 record in one-run games and was a big reason why the team finished in last place. Upgrading the relief corps has understandably been the focus of the offseason—Ryan Madson, Liam Hendriks, John Axford and Marc Rzepczynski were all added—and a revamped pen led by a healthy Sean Doolittle could make a world of difference.
Rymer: Minnesota Twins
Nobody expects the Twins to actually do anything in 2016 despite their strong showing in 2015, and that's not entirely unfair. But this spring, don't be surprised if they at least tease an exciting lineup. Brian Dozier is always good. Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton have a ton of talent. Byung Ho Park is a legit power hitter coming out of Korea. Joe Mauer could finally be healthy following a couple years' worth of concussion issues. Throw in Eddie Rosario and Trevor Plouffe, and you have plenty of potential for super-fun-happy times.
Shafer: Oakland Athletics
The A's might be the only American League club no one is picking to sniff the postseason. But there's talent here, including a rotation led by ace and Cy Young finalist Sonny Gray and a revamped bullpen. And with a lot of guys jockeying for position and playing time, the Athletics could be that team that brings the exhibition energy.
Which Team Will Look Worse Than Advertised?
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Gruen: St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals are generally great. So great, in fact, that I’d challenge anyone to argue that St. Louis isn’t the best organization since the Joe Torre Yankees. And it’s difficult to question any move—or lack thereof—that it makes. But how do you get better by allowing Jason Heyward and John Lackey to leave in free agency, let alone to your hated rival?
Knobler: New York Mets
The fans are convinced this team is headed back to the World Series to win it and that I’m nuts for suggesting it might not happen. I actually won’t be surprised if the Mets do win, but with the raised expectations and the short winter, I’ll be even less surprised if they take a step back.
Reuter: Los Angeles Dodgers
It won't take much for alarms to start sounding in Dodgers camp this spring, regardless of whether or not they're justified. The team is banking on quantity over quality to a point in the rotation, hoping the additions of Scott Kazmir and Kenta Maeda and the return of Hyun-jin Ryu can help offset the loss of Zack Greinke. If a couple of those guys struggle this spring, the Giants could start to look like heavy favorites in the NL West, with the Greinke-fueled Diamondbacks squarely in the picture as well.
Rymer: Chicago Cubs
Let's face it: Anything less than total domination from the Cubs this spring will be a disappointment. They also have a mix of veterans who are likely to be "meh" on spring training and youngsters who will be more focused on addressing weaknesses than showing off strengths. There's plenty that could possib-lie go wrong...I mean, possibly go wrong. See, things are already going wrong.
Shafer: Chicago Cubs
At this point it's almost inevitable the Cubs will fall short of expectations initially. They siphoned up so much of the winter hype that anything short of a total spring domination will feel like a letdown. They're still the most exciting, talented young team in the game and a safe pick to win the NL Central. But when you fly this high in the hype department, you have to come down a little.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.
