Los Angeles Clippers Complete 2016-17 Season Preview

The Los Angeles Clippers will tip off the 2016-17 season where the last one ended: at the Moda Center against the Portland Trail Blazers.

Game 6 in Rip City punctuated yet another disappointing Clippers demise. With Chris Paul and Blake Griffin lost to injury during Game 4, the team looked to Jamal Crawford and Austin Rivers to carry the scoring load. The former came through with 32 points, the latter with 21 and a busted eye, but neither could keep the Clippers from succumbing to a series-clinching, three-point defeat.

"I had people hitting me up, like 'it took for you to get your eye blackened for people to like you,'" Rivers said at Clippers media day.

L.A., as a team, has had its fair share of detractors in recent years, but none more destructive than itself. Folding up shop after watching its top two players go down is one thing. Doing so while holding a 3-1 series lead (as the Clippers did against the Houston Rockets in 2015) or with the prospect of going up 3-2 (as they did opposite the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2014) is quite another.

"We’re one of the few teams that just have to worry about us and what we do," Paul said at training camp. "If we come to play every night this year, we have a great shot of winning."

There may not be many more opportunities for these Clippers to blow their shot.

Come July 2017, J.J. Redick will be a free agent, while Griffin and Paul can both opt out of their contracts to take advantage of a soaring salary cap. Without those three, L.A. would lose just about any chance of making any noise in the playoffs—if it still had the legs to even get there.

"I know it's going to be a discussion," head coach Doc Rivers said. "I'm not going to answer it all week, all year, but I get it. It's part of the discussion, but our focus will be the season."

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There’s plenty for Rivers and his staff to focus on in the here and now. The core of the club remains intact, with Crawford, the younger Rivers, Wesley Johnson and Luc Mbah a Moute all re-upping. The additions of Raymond Felton, Marreese Speights, Alan Anderson and Brandon Bass, while fringe in both appearance and finance, could coalesce into the Clippers’ best bench since Vinny Del Negro got the boot in 2013.

Meanwhile, the rest of the Western Conference is begging for someone—anyone—to challenge the Golden State Warriors.

The San Antonio Spurs are tiptoeing into the post-Tim Duncan era. The Thunder and Rockets have much to prove after losing Kevin Durant and Dwight Howard, respectively. The Utah Jazz have been on the playoff precipice seemingly since Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer last played in Salt Lake City, and the Memphis Grizzlies have a host of injury-prone players to coddle.

That leaves the Clippers as, perhaps, the most likely dragon slayer by default…which doesn’t say much for the conference after watching Golden State throttle L.A. by 45 points in the preseason.

As Coach Rivers explained before the Clippers’ second exhibition game: "They’re a free team. There’s only a few of those in the league. They’ve kind of all gotten what they should do. They’ve all accepted and they all do it, whether they’re doing it well or not that night.

"You saw that in the Cleveland series when things were going bad for them, they didn’t really change. That’s the true test of when you feel like your team is really free now."

The Clippers have had that in fits and starts under Rivers’ reign, but never consistently or for long enough to get over that second-round hump. Could this be the year L.A. finds that freedom?

The quest to do so begins Oct. 27 in another house of horrors (Portland) for the Clippers.

"For us, that first game is sort of the start of this journey and the start of this process," said Redick.

Biggest Offseason Move

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Does it count as a "move" if the Clippers spent the vast majority of their offseason money on holdovers?

After bowing out of the Durant sweepstakes, Rivers swiftly turned his attention to keeping the band together. He shelled out $42 million over three years to keep Crawford and another $35 million over three years to his son. Rather than pursue other mid-level options on the wing, including former Clipper Matt Barnes, Rivers opted to retain Johnson (three years, $18 million) and Mbah a Moute (two years, $4.5 million) while bringing aboard Anderson at the veteran’s minimum.

If retentions don’t qualify, the nod for biggest move would be split between Felton and Speights, each of whom caught a shoestring from the end of the Clippers’ budget.

In Felton, L.A. finally has a true backup to Paul. Like his fellow Carolinas native, Felton is short but stout, a bowling ball who can get to the bucket. He also figures to see time in three-guard lineups, as he did starting next to Paul and Austin Rivers against the Toronto Raptors in the preseason.

"We hadn’t used that at all in any practice," Coach Rivers revealed after the game. "I thought what they all liked was all three guys can go downhill. All three guys can attack. If you ball swing, that guy’s catching it, putting it on the floor. It’s all driving and kicking and making plays. That puts a lot of pressure on a defense."

Speights should put the squeeze on some, too, thanks to his outside shot. Rivers has cycled through a slew of shooting bigs since he came to L.A. in 2013, from Antawn Jamison and Byron Mullens to Spencer Hawes and Hedo Turkoglu. If Speights is anywhere near as effective for the Clippers as he was for the Warriors, he could be the key to the team’s revamped bench—despite his ties to L.A.’s biggest rival.

"I think our fans will probably like him once they get past all that other stuff," Paul said. "He’s one of the guys that you compete against, I think you love to have him as your teammate but hate to play against him."

Rotation Breakdown

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Sorting out the Clippers rotation is a chore that even Rivers might not have a firm handle on until well into the season. At least the new depth should afford Rivers plenty of leeway to play the part of mad scientist with his lineups. 

Felton could play more 2 than 1 if L.A. goes small. Similarly, the younger Rivers is a natural combo guard but figures to spend time checking small forwards. Paul Pierce, a 3 throughout his career, will spend more minutes as a 4 if and when he plays.

Coach Rivers has already taken liberties to stagger minutes between Paul and Griffin—a new wrinkle that could keep the stars fresh and the offense humming throughout.

"A lot of times, you play with a guy like Chris, he makes the game so easy that sometimes you relax a little bit, maybe a little too much," Griffin said. "I think it’s good as far as finding out different ways to have an effect on the game and not being able to necessarily rely on just one guy, but really working the offense."

By and large, the starting five should look the same as it did for much of 2015-16, with Mbah a Moute joining the core four of Paul, Redick, Griffin and DeAndre Jordan. If the preseason is any indication, the reserves should then see their fair share of time alongside the starters.

PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Chris Paul	J.J. Redick	Luc Mbah a Moute	Blake Griffin	DeAndre Jordan
Raymond Felton	Jamal Crawford	Wesley Johnson	Brandon Bass	Marreese Speights
	Austin Rivers	Alan Anderson	Paul Pierce	Diamond Stone
			Brandon Bass

Crawford, at 36 and with another Sixth Man of the Year trophy on his mantle, will get his scoring opportunities. Rivers and Felton will both get calls to run point when Paul sits. Small forward is shaping up to be a dogfight between Mbah a Moute, Johnson and Anderson. Bass and Speights should slide in as understudies for Griffin and Jordan, and occasionally as frontcourt partners for each of them.

"I think [Rivers] has put together a team where everybody kind of understands that," Crawford said. "The strength really is in numbers. I think you have to be at a certain place in your career. You have to be at a certain mind state as far as what’s important. I think for us it’s all about just winning."

Last season, L.A.’s second unit started slow but finished fifth in bench scoring at 37.8 points per game, according to HoopsStats.com. This year’s group could be just as potent, if not more so.

"Our bench for the first half of the year didn’t play well and probably taxed our guys," Coach Rivers said. "This year, we would like to start off with a bench that is up to par with the starters. If we can do that, it’s big for us."

All the better for the Clippers starters, who will need all the wind they can save from the regular season to ensure smoother sailing come playoff time.

Reason for Confidence

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Over the last four years (including Del Negro’s final go-round), the Clippers have averaged 55.5 wins. Only the Spurs and Warriors have had more regular-season success during that span.

Of the Clippers’ current core, only Redick and Rivers haven’t been around for the entirety of that run. More importantly, they’re still in L.A. and as hungry as ever.

Paul is eager to escape the second round for the first time in his career. Griffin has come into the preseason with an even sharper focus than usual after enduring a campaign marred by injuries and off-court drama.

"We knew he was going to come out and try to get back and get his rhythm," Jordan said. "He was out for a long time, and great players like that, it doesn’t take them very long to come back, get their rhythm and pick their spots. We’ll be a way better team with him back."

Continuity will be key for this club, especially coming out of the gate. Last season, the Clippers struggled early on to an overhauled defensive scheme and stumbled as a result. But L.A. got it together in time to finish fourth in league in defensive efficiency, per NBA.com, even after a blip of poor play during March.

With far fewer schematic changes to adjust time around, the Clippers should be better able to get ahead and stay there as the schedule grinds along.

Reason for Concern

For all the regular-season success these Clippers have enjoyed, they’ve yet to parlay it into a deep postseason push. You don’t have to be a basketball savant to figure out why: They’ve been patently awful in crunch time.

Paul is as much a culprit as anyone. For one of the steadiest point guards around, he can be surprisingly prone to miscues and bad shots when the lights shine brightest:

That might not be such a concern for the Clippers this season. Between Griffin, Felton, Rivers and Crawford, the team is replete with playmakers who can take pressure off Paul at both ends of the floor and afford him ample time to rest. The team’s efforts to stagger minutes between Paul and Griffin should help in that regard as well.

"I don’t mind it," Paul said. "Whatever’s going to help us win, I’m with it."

Still, old habits die hard. When the Clippers find themselves in another high-leverage playoff moment, they’ll likely do what they’ve done for the last half decade: give the ball to CP3, for better or worse.

Player to Watch: Blake Griffin

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Griffin’s been a man on a mission from well before the opening of Clippers training camp. By late July, he was fully operational after working his way through a nagging quad injury. Come early September, he was back to scrimmaging at the team’s practice facility…and showing off a sharper, more natural three-point shot.

"We’re going to tell him to shoot it damn near every time he catches it," Paul said. "It’s one of those things that I’m sure when the games come we’ll see how comfortable he is with it. We’ve had the confidence in him for a while, but everything’s different."

Year after year, Griffin has extended his shooting range. Last season, he hit 7-of-20 (35 percent) from three and 38 percent of shots between 16 feet out and just inside the arc, according to Basketball Reference. Without Bob Thate, Griffin’s longtime shooting coach, on the Clippers staff, the All-Star forward has continued to build on the foundation he had in place with new assistant John Welch.

Just don’t expect him to start firing away like a 6'10" Stephen Curry.

"It’s not one of those things I want to fall in love with," Griffin said. "I still think I’ve got to be effective in a lot of other areas, being a 4-man. It’s not something that I’m going to pick-and-pop to all the time, but if it’s there, it’s something I’ve worked on. I don’t expect to be shooting a lot of threes every night."

Nor does he need to if he’s to be an MVP candidate. Prior to his injury last season, Griffin averaged 23.2 points, 8.7 rebounds and 5.0 assists while generally playing the smartest and most controlled basketball of his career. If he can recapture that mojo and be at least a threat from three, the Clippers could be much more than a pest out West.

Predictions

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L.A. should once again rack up regular-season wins, as it has for years. There will be some bumps along the way as Rivers tinkers with different lineups and susses out his best options on the wing. But that experimentation will be crucial down the line, when he really needs to know who can do what under which circumstances.

At worst, the Clippers should be a top-three team in the Western Conference. At best, they’ll be able to rival the revamped Spurs and put a scare into the Warriors.

Still, even if you discount the 45-point shellacking the team suffered during a preseason game in Oakland, the Warriors are so far ahead of the pack that the rest of the league is practically playing for second place. Among those on Golden State’s side of the bracket, L.A. could be the best runner-up bet, but only if its stars stay healthy, both physically and mentally, when the calendar turns to April, May and June.

Final Record: 55-27

Division Standing: 2nd

Playoff Berth: Yes

B/R Leaguewide Power Ranking Prediction: 6th

All quotes obtained firsthand.

Josh Martin covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook.