NFL Playoffs 2016: Wild-Card Schedule and Predictions for Divisional Bracket

Welcome to the Wild Card Round of the 2016 NFL playoffs, where following conventional wisdom and picking the teams that earned home games may be a poor strategy.

After all, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Seattle Seahawks look to be as dangerous of Super Bowl threats as any team in the league, and they are the No. 6 seeds in their respective conferences. Elsewhere, the red-hot Kansas City Chiefs head to Houston with an eye on their 11th win in a row, and Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback of the road team in the showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Washington.

With that in mind, here is a look at the schedule, key matchups and predictions for how the bracket will appear by the divisional round.

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans

Key Matchup: Chiefs Offensive Line vs. Texans Pass Rush

The last time the Kansas City Chiefs were in Houston, they walked away with a 27-20 victory over the Texans in Week 1. If they plan on doing that again, the offensive line must protect quarterback Alex Smith.

Football Outsiders ranked the Chiefs offensive line as the 28th-best group in the league in terms of pass protection this season. While the unit was impressive when it came to opening up rushing lanes for Jamaal Charles, Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware this year (fifth in Football Outsiders’ rankings), it will prove nearly impossible to beat the Texans if it doesn’t slow down J.J. Watt and company.

According to BJ Kissel of Chiefs.com, Kansas City had eight different starting offensive line combinations this year and “never played more than four games in a row with the same starting five.”

That is not exactly a formula for success, especially since the Texans counter with Watt, who led the NFL with 17.5 sacks, and Whitney Mercilus, who was sixth with 12. They also have Jadeveon Clowney, who is coming off an injury but could play, and Vince Wilfork, who can stuff the middle and occupy multiple blockers.

Kansas City coach Andy Reid recognized how important his offensive line is in this matchup, per Kissel:

"

They’re playing very well. They had 8 sacks or so (on Sunday), that’s a pretty good number. They had constant pressure on the quarterback. [Watt] got his cast off, he’s playing good football, but he’s not the only one.

What a great challenge, though, for our offensive line, that’s what it’s all about. They’re going to line up and they’re going to bring it. They’ve got a loud crowd and they’ll be revved up. It doesn’t get any better than that. 

"

If Smith doesn’t have time to throw when Kansas City turns to the aerial attack, that 10-game winning streak will come to a quick stop at the hands of the Texans' talented front seven. 

Prediction: Watt is a menace up front and victimizes the Chiefs multiple times. Houston defends home field and advances to the divisional round.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Key Matchup: Cincinnati vs. History 

The Cincinnati Bengals are a dismal 0-6 under coach Marvin Lewis in the playoffs and lost their first postseason game in each of the last four years. ESPN Stats & Info highlighted just how desperate the team is for postseason success:

On the other side is a Pittsburgh Steelers team that has won two Super Bowls and lost another one since 2004. This is also their eighth playoff appearance in the last 12 years as one of the established, consistent winners in the NFL.

Pittsburgh also beat AJ McCarron and the Bengals in Week 14, 33-20, even though the Alabama product threw for a respectable 280 yards and two touchdowns. He did have two critical interceptions and must avoid giving the ball to the potent Steelers attack in favorable field position in the rematch.

There will be a point in this game where things go wrong for the Bengals. Even with a strong defense, Cincinnati can’t be expected to shut down an offense that consists of Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton for all four quarters.

How the Bengals respond to the inevitable adversity will determine whether they can finally get that postseason victory under Lewis.

Prediction: Cincinnati may have home-field advantage, but the Steelers have too many weapons on offense. Roethlisberger will once again win in Paul Brown Stadium, just like he did in Week 14, and send the Bengals home after one playoff game for the fifth straight year.

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings

Key Matchup: Adrian Peterson vs. Seattle’s Front Seven

The Seattle Seahawks won eight of the last 10 games after a disappointing 2-4 start and once again resemble a team that reached the past two Super Bowls instead of the one that looked to be going through the motions at the beginning of the season.

Included in that streak were arguably the most impressive win of the season in Week 17 (36-6 over the Arizona Cardinals) and a 38-7 domination of the same Minnesota Vikings they will play in the Wild Card Round.

While Russell Wilson’s aerial attack after injuries to Marshawn Lynch and Thomas Rawls was one major reason for the Seahawks’ turnaround, the defense once again carried much of the load. Now the league’s No. 1 defense in terms of rushing yards allowed per game will face the NFL’s rushing king, Adrian Peterson.

Peterson finished with 1,485 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground in 2015, although he temporarily left Minnesota’s Week 17 victory over the Green Bay Packers with a back injury. He also picked up a mere 18 rushing yards on only eight carries in Minnesota’s loss to the Seahawks this year.

If the Seahawks once again force the Vikings to be one-dimensional on offense with second-year signal-caller Teddy Bridgewater, it will be a frustrating game for the home team. Bridgewater threw for 118 yards and a pick and was sacked four times against Seattle. He appeared lost at times facing the Legion of Boom secondary that allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game this season. 

Thomas Emerick of Sporting News pointed to one concern for the Vikings offense heading into the rematch:

The only way the Vikings can prevent the Seattle pass rush from making life miserable for Bridgewater is with traction from Peterson. That would slow down the defensive line and force help to crowd the box, which would theoretically open up throwing lanes for Bridgewater.

The only problem is executing that plan against the stifling Seattle defense is incredibly difficult, as Peterson can attest.

Prediction: Peterson is too talented to be held under 20 yards again, but he will struggle to find openings as the Seattle defense once again dictates tempo against an overmatched Minnesota offense.

Green Bay Packers at Washington

Key Matchup: Aaron Rodgers vs. Vulnerable Washington Secondary

Matt Ludtke/Associated Press

While many will see a quarterback matchup between the superstar Rodgers and Kirk Cousins and automatically give the nod to the Packers, the Green Bay signal-caller hasn’t posted the superstar production fans are accustomed to from No. 12.

In fact, he hasn’t thrown for 300 yards since Nov. 15 against the Detroit Lions, and his 60.7 percent completion mark was his worst total since becoming the starter in 2008. The absence of Jordy Nelson was apparent for much of the year, and the remaining wide receivers struggled to create consistent separation down the stretch.

That led to Rodgers holding onto the ball longer, and he took a combined 13 sacks in losses to the Cardinals and Vikings to finish the season.

Green Bay’s only win since September over a team that finished above .500 was a Nov. 22 victory over the Vikings, and it simply hasn’t looked like a true championship contender. Perhaps a matchup with Washington’s secondary that was 25th in the league in passing yards allowed per game will change that.

Rodgers will need to exploit that defense and put up points because Cousins threw for 300 yards in six of his team’s final 10 games. The former Michigan State star led the league with a 69.8 percent completion mark and led Washington to six wins in its final eight contests, including victories in the last four, to clinch the NFC East.

Despite his status as the established star, Rodgers will need to keep pace with Cousins in this one.

Prediction: Recent struggles aside, Rodgers will find holes against a poor Washington pass defense and put up enough points to direct the Packers to the divisional round. Their season will end against the same Cardinals team that pounded them in Week 16, 38-8.