Examining Sam Bradford's Chances of Leading the Eagles on a Title Run

When Chip Kelly took over as head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles two years ago, lots of folks expected the unexpected. But when you take a step back and compare the look of the current Eagles to that of the team Kelly inherited from Andy Reid in 2013, you begin to see just how bold Kelly has been. 

In that time, Kelly has cut a Pro Bowl receiver, a Pro Bowl pass-rusher, an All-Pro guard and an All-Pro cornerback, parted ways with a Pro Bowl quarterback, another Pro Bowl receiver and another Pro Bowl cornerback, and he has traded an All-Pro running back and another Pro Bowl quarterback.

A depth chart comparison courtesy of NJ.com's Eliot Shorr-Parks reveals that only about a dozen players remain from the 2013 offseason:

But what's most amazing—and probably most important—is what Kelly has done with his quarterbacks. That's because, despite the fact the Eagles are one of seven teams with 10-plus wins in each of the last two seasons and rank eighth in football in terms passing offense during that span, Kelly is about to use his third different Week 1 starter in as many NFL seasons. 

And I know this was spoiled above, but the first two dudes had Pro Bowls on their resumes. 

The new guy does not. 

And yes, Sam Bradford, whom the Eagles traded quarterback Nick Foles and a pair of draft picks for in March, is a former No. 1 overall pick with the ability to become a franchise quarterback. But Bradford has made it through only two full seasons out of five and has missed all but seven games the last two years. 

In fact, within the 30 months that have elapsed since Kelly took over in Philadelphia, Bradford has torn the ACL in his left knee on two separate, season-crushing occasions. Prior to that, he suffered a significant ankle injury with his original team, the St. Louis Rams, in 2011, and he was plagued by major shoulder problems at the end of his college career in 2009. 

Before the Heisman-winning Oklahoma product suffered that initial ACL tear in 2013, he had the fifth-best touchdown-to-interception ratio in the league (14-to-4) and was well on his way to having a breakout year with a passer rating of 90.9. He posted those numbers despite the fact he was playing for a mediocre football team that sent only two guys to the Pro Bowl (and one was a punter), throwing the ball to unprepared rookie Tavon Austin and fellow unworthy starters Chris Givens, Austin Pettis and Brian Quick. 

Will things be different for the 27-year-old in Philly? Obviously, Kelly is gambling that they will. 

Kelly is gambling that his continually ballyhooed sports science program will keep Bradford healthy and that his highly praised offensive system will cause the quarterback to experience a rejuvenation similar to those experienced by former Kelly pupils.

Pupils like Foles (the league's highest-rated passer in 2013), LeSean McCoy (the league's leading rusher that same year) and DeSean Jackson (No. 2 in 20-plus-yard catches that same year), as well wide receivers Jeremy Maclin and Riley Cooper and offensive linemen Evan Mathis and Jason Kelce—all of whom emerged and arguably peaked under Kelly's tutelage. 

If the same thing were to happen with Bradford, you'd have to think the Eagles would be in a position to exceed that 10-win total from each of the last two seasons and make a push for something in January. But can that happen? 

Can he actually remain on the field?

Bradford may be in the right place. 

When it comes to "adjusted games lost"—a formula utilized by Football Outsiders in an attempt to quantify the impact injuries have on each team—the Eagles have been the healthiest team in football during the Kelly era. 

Team	2013	2014	Combined
1. Eagles	32.2	48.6	80.8
2. Jets	43.0	41.5	84.5
3. Ravens	47.4	52.6	100.0
4. Bills	44.3	59.0	103.3
5. Browns	41.1	67.0	108.1

A lot of credit for that has gone to Kelly's sports science program, which stresses particular approaches to diet, exercise and sleep. A former Navy SEAL has been employed as the team's dedicated sports science coordinator the last two years, and according to Zach Berman of the Philadelphia Inquirer, they hired two more sports science employees earlier this offseason. 

“Coach Kelly does a good job of getting us to put a lot of work in during the week, but we also have our bodies ready for Sunday,” cornerback Bradley Fletcher said during Kelly's inaugural season, per CSN Philly's Geoff Mosher. “We don’t put ourselves in position where we’re going to feel like we don’t have anything left in the tank. I credit that to the sports science, just how Coach Kelly runs his football team.”

But there has to be concern regarding the fact Kelly's quarterbacks have actually had some trouble staying healthy. Vick couldn't do so when handed the starting job in 2013, while Foles was limited by head and groin injuries that year before missing half of the 2014 campaign because of a fractured clavicle. 

And besides, how often do quarterbacks overcome two straight virtually lost seasons due to injury? There's no way to answer that question, because it's never happened to a starting quarterback in his 20s. If you comb through the archives at Pro Football Reference, you won't find a single regular starting quarterback in Bradford's age range who has missed as many games as he has (25) over a two-year span. 

The closest comparison is probably Archie Manning, who missed the entire 1976 season and four games in 1977 as a result of separate injuries. It's somewhat promising that Manning went on to start three consecutive full seasons between 1978 and 1980, but he still played the majority of New Orleans' 14-game schedule that second year. And in that two-year stretch, Manning missed just 18 games. 

It's no wonder former Cleveland Browns general manager and Eagles player personnel consultant Phil Savage suggested earlier this offseason on Sportsradio 94 WIP that Bradford's injury history "scared off 90 percent of the teams" in the market. 

Can he provide an upgrade over Foles? 

Even if Bradford remains healthy, he'll have to prove that he can be as good as, if not better than, Foles to take Philly from pretender to contender. 

ESPN recently ranked Bradford as a third-tier quarterback, which placed him among pivots "who are good enough to start but need lots of support, making it tougher to contend at the highest level." Joining him with a nearly identical rating within the same tier was Foles, an afterthought third-round pick in 2012 who has posted a sub-85.0 passer rating in two of his three seasons. 

"Frankly," an unnamed head coach told ESPN, "you probably want him [Bradford] to be your backup, just for his availability."

Ouch. 

Did the Eagles trade one inconsistent, injury-prone quarterback for another inconsistent, injury-prone quarterback? It's a possibility. But Foles did come crashing back to earth in 2014, and it was beginning to look as though his 2013 season was an anomaly. 

Still, the fact a third-round pick with far-less-than-stellar pocket presence was able to post the best touchdown-to-interception ratio in NFL history while registering the third-highest passer rating of all time during his first quasi-full season in the league indicates there's hope for the significantly more talented Bradford. 

Bradford wasn't well-supported in St. Louis, but his interception rates in all four of his seasons were lower than the rate posted by Foles in 2014. Before going down seven weeks into the 2013 season, he was the eighth-most accurate qualified passer in the league at Pro Football Focus, his accuracy rate (74.7) beating out Foles' final rate (74.2) in what was a historic season for the Eagles quarterback.

Quarterback	Acc.%
1. Philip Rivers	82.6
2. Peyton Manning	80.6
3. Matt Ryan	80.3
4. Aaron Rodgers	77.3
5. Ben Roethlisberger	76.0
6. Andy Dalton	75.0
7. Jay Cutler	75.0
8. Sam Bradford	74.7
9. Cam Newton	74.5
10. Tony Romo	74.3

Bradford could take fewer sacks and fare better under pressure, but so could Foles, who had PFF's third-worst qualified under-pressure sack rate in the league in 2013 and the NFL's third-worst qualified accuracy percentage under the same circumstances in 2014. 

To Foles' credit, he reduced his abysmal sack rate from one season to the next, but he was replacing those sacks with interceptions and imprecise throws. 

Bradford isn't as likely to suffer from those problems. He's a quick thinker with a fast release who typically makes good decisions on the fly, which is imperative to what the Eagles do on offense. That, and the fact he ran a similarly fast-paced, no-huddle system in college, is very encouraging. 

It's encouraging he's gambling on himself

It could help that Bradford will now officially be playing for a contract in 2015, which will mark the first time he's had much financial incentive since signing a record six-year, $78 million deal with $50 million guaranteed as a rookie in 2010. 

That's because, according to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport, he's decided against taking a contract extension now and will instead complete his rookie contract in Philly. 

It's entirely possible that'll help light a fire under a quarterback who must be desperate to make a point.

Plus, he surely realizes that he's never been surrounded by quite this much talent before. This year, Bradford will have a two-time All-Pro in Jason Peters on his left side, a recent No. 4 overall pick in Lane Johnson on his right side and a strong young center in Jason Kelce. 

Throw in 2014 second-round pick Jordan Matthews, who had 872 yards and eight touchdowns as a rookie, and tight end Zach Ertz, who accumulated over 700 yards as a sophomore, and it's safe to say he's got some quality weapons even without Jackson or Maclin. 

And McCoy might be gone, but Philly now has a backfield with three Pro Bowlers, including reigning Offensive Player of the Year DeMarco Murray.

Support won't be an issue, which is why the gamble makes some sense.  

Let's also keep in mind Bradford is only 27. At the same age, Aaron Rodgers had been to just one Pro Bowl, Peyton Manning was coming off his first All-Pro season, Steve Young was still a backup, Warren Moon hadn't played an NFL game, and Kurt Warner was playing for the Amsterdam Admirals in NFL Europe. 

You can't write him off just yet.

Now, after dealing with four offensive coordinators in five years on a team that didn't give him much of a chance to excel, Bradford has one last chance. And this time, with Kelly as his mentor and a talented offense surrounding him, a sudden emergence isn't out of the question.

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.

Follow @Brad_Gagnon