Boston Celtics' Draft Leaves More Questions Than Answers Entering Free Agency
The Boston Celtics are known for generally being a clever front office. They trade well, they draft well, and they have expedited their rebuilding process.
It's that reputation that leaves many puzzled with their decisions during the 2015 NBA draft.
The Celtics entered the draft with four selections. They used all four of them, taking Terry Rozier at No. 16, R.J. Hunter at No. 28, Jordan Mickey at No. 33 and Marcus Thornton (no, not that Marcus Thornton) at No. 45.
The chatter right now, however, concerns the selection of Rozier.
According to ESPN's Chris Forsberg, Boston intended to move up heading into draft night, and while general manager Danny Ainge did attempt to do so, he failed.
It absolutely wasn't for lack of trying, though. According to Forsberg, the Celtics offered six picks to the Charlotte Hornets to try to move up to No. 9. Forsberg broke it down:
"The Boston Celtics made a strong final push to trade up into the top 10 in the draft, culminating in an offer to the Charlotte Hornets that included as many as six draft picks, including four potential first-rounders, for Charlotte's No. 9 pick, sources said.
The Celtics, whose offer was rebuffed by the Hornets, wanted to move up from No. 16 in order to draft Duke forward Justise Winslow, who was ultimately selected by the Miami Heat at No. 10. The Hornets took Wisconsin center Frank Kaminsky at No. 9.
The Celtics were also unsuccessful in attempts to acquire a pick in spots Nos. 4-8, sources said.
"
Obviously, Justise Winslow would have been a heck of an addition to the young Boston squad, but Ainge almost seemed relieved that the deal did not go through afterward.
"Maybe we were going too hard at it," he said, via Forsberg. "There was a time when I thought, 'Whoa, this is getting a little out of control.' We're putting a lot of eggs in one young player's basket. So I'm not frustrated. In the long run, maybe it'll be the best."
Of course, that does not make Ainge's top selection, Rozier, any less perplexing.
A 6'2" guard out of Louisville, Rozier does project to be a pretty solid player at the NBA level.
Drawing comparisons to Eric Bledsoe, Rozier is tough, quick and very explosive. His shot selection is a work in progress, as evidenced by his true shooting percentage of 50.9 percent and effective field-goal percentage of 45.7 percent during his sophomore season with the Cardinals, but the tools seem to be there.
Talent and ability aside, though, was this a prudent selection by the C's?
The Celtics already have three guards who fill similar roles in Marcus Smart, Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley. You might also even want to include Evan Turner in that mix. Did they really need to add another combo guard to their roster?
Let's examine why Ainge and Co. may have done this.
Setting Themselves Up for a Trade?
It is entirely possible that Boston selected Rozier in order to create flexibility to make a trade.
After all, Ainge has been one of the more active general managers in trade talks over the past couple of years, so there is no reason to believe he may not be preparing to leap into the fray again.
Ainge even hinted at potentially making a move this summer, per Jay King of Mass Live:
Meanwhile, NBA.com's David Aldridge suggested that the Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers get each other on the phone and try to strike a deal:
Regardless of whether or not Boston actually makes a trade, you have to assume that it will be aggressive in testing the waters.
After all, the C's still lack a rim protector and could certainly use some wing scoring, and it may be difficult for them to find what they need in free agency.
"We’re well-positioned to get any free agent that moves, but a lot won’t move," a team source told Adam Himmelsbach of the Boston Globe. "It’s going to be tough."
While your first thought may be to question why any big-name free agent wouldn't want to go to a ballclub with an illustrious history such as the Celtics', there are a couple of things to keep in mind.
First of all, while Boston is a major city, it does not carry the cache of a Los Angeles, a New York or even a Chicago. The warm weather of Miami also makes South Beach a relatively more attractive landing spot than the cold, snowy winters of Beantown.
Second, while the C's may be improving, they are still not in a win-now situation. Keep in mind that although the Celtics did make the playoffs in 2014-15, they only won 40 games and were also fortunate that the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers (and even the Hornets, to an extent) were ravaged by injuries.
Most free agents would prefer to go somewhere they can contend immediately, and the Celtics simply cannot offer that at the moment.
That's why trading is currently Boston's best chance of getting better, and right now, it can absolutely trade from depth.
It does not seem plausible that Smart, Thomas, Bradley, Turner and Rozier will all get major minutes. Unless the C's want to one up the Golden State Warriors' small-ball lineup and play Turner at center and Smart at power forward, it isn't happening.
So, what kind of deals could the Celtics make? Well, it's still very early in the offseason, and you have to think they are going to thoroughly gauge the market before they make any sort of move. However, Aldridge's idea of the 76ers as a trade partner does seem logical.
Philadelphia has a surplus of young bigs, and Boston has a surplus of young guards. The Sixers need guards; the C's need bigs.
Seems like a match made in heaven, does it not?
Trying to Emulate the Warriors?
It is a somewhat feasible assumption that Ainge and the Celtics are trying to emulate what the Warriors did en route to an NBA championship this past season.
Golden State was able to win a title by essentially "spamming" the court with guards and wings. For stretches during the finals, Draymond Green, who stands 6'7", was playing center. As a matter of fact, Andrew Bogut did not play a single second in Games 5 or 6 and only played five minutes in Game 4.
The Warriors not only started Green, Harrison Barnes, Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry, but Andre Iguodala (who actually started Games 4, 5 and 6 of the Finals), Shaun Livingston and Leandro Barbosa were three of their most used reserves.
That's a whole lot of little guys.
Boston may be trying to do something similar, attempting to roll with quick, fast-striking lineups that can score in transition and put opposing defenses back on their heels.
Of course, Golden State also had elite shooting, something the C's lack.
Plus, relying on small ball is a rather dangerous way to tread.
As impressive as the Dubs were this past season, they were somewhat of an outlier. Based on NBA history, it is an incredibly daunting task to win a championship without a legitimate big man who can score the basketball.
The last team to do it before the Warriors was the Chicago Bulls from 1996 to 1998, but they had Michael Jordan, not to mention Scottie Pippen and Dennis Rodman.
Since then, you have had the San Antonio Spurs with David Robinson and Tim Duncan; the Los Angeles Lakers with Shaquille O'Neal, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum; the Detroit Pistons with Rasheed Wallace; the Heat with Shaq and Chris Bosh; the Celtics with Kevin Garnett; and the Dallas Mavericks with Dirk Nowitzki.
That's a lot of dominant big guys.
This isn't to say that the Celtics don't have good offensive big men, because Jared Sullinger fits that bill, and Kelly Olynyk can on occasion, as well. However, if Boston plans on overloading its lineup with guards and playing an uptempo style, Sullinger and the rest of the Celtics' bigs may find it challenging to fit in.
Best Player Available?
It is not out of the realm of possibility that Ainge simply felt that Rozier was the best player available at No. 16 and acted accordingly.
Sure, Bobby Portis would have filled more of a need for the Celtics, but is he a better player than Rozier? Maybe not.
Rozier seems to have the higher ceiling. Again, he profiles as a Bledsoe-type player in the NBA or possibly even a poor man's Russell Westbrook.
Thanks to his quickness, strength and toughness, Rozier is excellent at plowing his way through traffic and getting to the rim. Of course, his success rate at the basket could use some work.
As you can see from the Shot Analytics chart, Rozier shoots only 53 percent at the cup, which is hardly impressive. His saving grace is that he is a very good mid-range jump shooter from the right side of the floor.
If Rozier can improve his efficiency near the rim and develop a consistent outside shot, he could be a very difficult player to stop offensively. That may not be an impossible task, either.
While Rozier shot only 30.6 percent from three-point range during his final season at Louisville, he has very good shooting mechanics.
Check out his form on this triple he drained against Syracuse back in February:
Smooth, fluid and no hitches. Maybe he releases the basketball a bit too quickly, but that is something that can easily be corrected.
Defensively, Rozier is a pit bull.
He is a ball hawk, displaying great lateral foot speed and fierce tenacity on the perimeter. He averaged two steals per game last season, and those numbers figure to hold up on the professional level because of his talent and commitment on that end of the floor.
Boston may already have the league's nastiest perimeter defense with Smart and Bradley. Rozier will either add to that or make a player such as Bradley expendable.
The tools are certainly there for Rozier to turn into a good NBA player. The primary question right now is how he will get enough minutes in his rookie season.
But, there is still a long way to go in the 2015 offseason.
It should be interesting to see which direction Ainge decides to go.
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