The Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for Every 2015 NBA Draft Lottery Team
While a select few NBA teams continue to battle it out for the 2015 championship, 14 others are preparing for thrills of a different kind.
On May 19, the NBA will hold its annual draft lottery to decide the fates of all non-playoff teams. Three lucky franchises will snag a top-three pick, while others will be white-knuckling all night in fear of sliding down the lottery board (and perhaps losing their pick outright).
It should go without saying that each team's best-case scenario on lottery night would be defying the odds and securing the No. 1 pick, while the worst-case scenario is falling three spots and cursing Lady Luck for the next month. Realistically, however, neither of those scenarios is likely to unfold for a grand majority of the franchises in attendance.
Thus, based on lottery odds, team needs and projected range of each likely first-round pick, let's examine each non-playoff franchise's best- and worst-case scenarios between now and draft night.
Minnesota Timberwolves
1 of 14
Best Case: Winning the lottery, drafting Karl-Anthony Towns
The Minnesota Timberwolves figure to enter draft night in a rather enviable position. With a slew of talented young players—Ricky Rubio, Zach LaVine, Andrew Wiggins and Gorgui Dieng, most notably—the Wolves should be in position to draft the best player available once they're on the clock instead of picking based on need.
Minnesota enters the lottery with the highest odds of landing the No. 1 pick (25 percent), which would be the clear best-case scenario for this rebuilding franchise. Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns would be a natural fit next to Dieng on both ends of the court, and the Wolves could reduce their reliance upon the oft-injured Nikola Pekovic.
Duke's Jahlil Okafor, meanwhile, projects to be an elite low-post scorer in the NBA, and the tandem of he and Wiggins could be damn near unstoppable in a few years' time. Minnesota fans should hope the lottery breaks their way and allows the Wolves to draft Towns, but Okafor wouldn't be a bad consolation prize.
Worst Case: Missing out on Towns or Okafor
The Wolves may have the best odds of winning the No. 1 pick, but there's a 17.8 percent chance they drop two spots and a 35.7 percent chance of them winding up with the No. 4 pick. Though they'd still be guaranteed a shot at a prospect such as D'Angelo Russell or Emmanuel Mudiay, missing out on either Towns or Okafor would be a serious disappointment.
With Rubio signed to a four-year, $55 million extension that begins next season, Minnesota has little need for another top-tier floor general. While the Wolves could conceivably select Russell with the intention of making him their long-term starting 2, he appears better suited to play the point, as Jonathan Tjarks recently wrote at the Cauldron.
Mudiay, meanwhile, would largely replicate Rubio's strengths (passing, length) and weaknesses (shooting), making him an even worse fit in Minnesota. After the campaign the Wolves just endured, anything short of Towns or Okafor would qualify as a major disappointment.
New York Knicks
2 of 14
Best Case: Landing a top-four pick
In the New York Knicks' case, beggars can't be choosers. With glaring roster holes at just about every position and only five players under contract beyond June 30, the Knicks need whatever help they can get.
Realistically, all four of the projected top prospects—Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor, D'Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay—would make some degree of sense. Towns would bring a much-needed infusion of defense to the team, while Okafor's back-to-the-basket skills would give the Knicks a second threat to go off for 20 or more points on a nightly basis.
To effectively operate the triangle offense, meanwhile, New York needs a point guard who isn't 33 years old and a glaring defensive liability. (No offense, Jose Calderon.) While the Knicks could address that position in free agency, too, drafting either Mudiay or Russell would give them a potential franchise floor general to build around.
Worst Case: Falling to No. 5
Since each of the top four prospects seems to fill a need for the Knicks, their worst-case scenario would be slipping three spots on lottery night. Assuming Towns, Okafor, Mudiay and Russell go off the board with the first four picks, New York would suddenly be left sorting through a handful of less enticing prospects.
Though Justise Winslow, Kristaps Porzingis, Mario Hezonja and Willie Cauley-Stein all figure to have lengthy, successful careers in the NBA, none fit as cleanly with the Knicks as the projected top four picks. Assuming the Knicks commit to Carmelo Anthony largely playing the 4—a wise move with him fresh off knee surgery—Winslow and Porzingis would be largely duplicative.
Hezonja could add some much-needed shooting to New York's roster, and Cauley-Stein could become the franchise's defensive backbone, but the Knicks' two biggest needs are a low-post scorer and a top-tier point guard. If they miss out because of a few meaningless late-season wins, New York fans would have every reason to flip the nearest table on draft night.
Philadelphia 76ers
3 of 14
Best Case: Getting three lottery picks
Though it's incredibly unlikely, the Philadelphia 76ers could still wind up with the Nos. 1, 6 and 11 picks in this June's draft if the lottery gods smile upon them.
The Los Angeles Lakers, who enter the lottery with the fourth-best odds to win, must fall two spots to convey their top-five-protected pick to Philadelphia. The Miami Heat, in the No. 10 spot, would send their first-round pick to the Sixers if a team below them—the Indiana Pacers, Utah Jazz, Phoenix Suns or Oklahoma City Thunder—jumped into the top three.
According to LotteryBucket.com, the odds of the 1-6-11 scenario unfolding for Philadelphia on lottery night are just 0.295 percent. If this 1-in-338.84 shot somehow comes to fruition, however, anyone who slammed the Sixers' rebuilding strategy will need a huge helping of humble pie.
Worst Case: Falling out of the top four
To further advance their rebuild, the 76ers need to acquire a long-term point guard this offseason, either via the draft or free agency. Fortunately, two of the top four options figure to be floor generals—D'Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay—which makes a top pick a necessity for Philadelphia on draft night.
If the Sixers slide more than one spot in the lottery, they're likely to miss out on both top point guard prospects. Though Justise Winslow, Kristaps Porzingis and Willie Cauley-Stein figure to help some needy NBA franchise this June, Philadelphia has no need for another young frontcourt player with Nerlens Noel, Joel Embiid and Dario Saric already in place.
Sliding to No. 5 would be more palatable if it meant the Lakers fell to No. 6, as two mid-lottery picks would ease the sting of missing out on Mudiay or Russell. Falling to No. 5 or No. 6 without the Lakers or Heat picks conveying, however, would be a disastrous setback to the Sixers' ongoing rebuild.
Los Angeles Lakers
4 of 14
Best Case: Jahlil Okafor slips to them
Though the Los Angeles Lakers would assuredly love to land the No. 1 pick, their 11.9 percent chance of doing so means Karl-Anthony Towns likely ain't walking through that door. Instead, L.A. should be hoping for the next-best thing: Jahlil Okafor taking a slight draft-day tumble.
"I'm hearing, more and more from scouts, that Okafor may actually be sliding on some boards down to 3, 4 ...even 5," ESPN Insider Chad Ford revealed in a recent chat. If the Lakers don't snag a top-three pick—they only have a 37.8 percent shot at doing so—they'll have to hope the teams ahead of them become enchanted with one of the top point guard prospects.
It's not an altogether impossible scenario. The Philadelphia 76ers, in desperate need of a franchise floor general, should have both D'Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay ahead of Okafor on their draft board. The same could be true for the New York Knicks. And if that comes to fruition on draft night, the Lakers will be laughing their way to the bank as they submit Okafor's name for their pick.
Worst Case: Falling two spots and losing their pick
If the Lakers, fresh off their worst season ever, fall two spots on lottery night, the 2014-15 season will exact one final measure of revenge on this storied franchise. L.A. would send its top-five-protected pick to the Sixers, leaving the team with just a late-first-round selection (via the Houston Rockets) on draft night.
Given the Lakers' wide swath of needs—they only have four players guaranteed to be under contract for next season—missing out on a top-five pick would hinder their effort to begin building a post-Kobe Bryant core. Jordan Clarkson and Julius Randle look like long-term keepers, but beyond that lies great uncertainty.
Like the Knicks, all four of the top prospects appear to be theoretical fits, although Clarkson's late-season emergence makes a franchise big man a greater need than another point guard.
Orlando Magic
5 of 14
Best Case: Avoiding any major surprises
By selecting Arizona forward Aaron Gordon with the No. 4 overall pick last June, the Orlando Magic sent a majority of draft boards spiraling into chaos. One year later, they'll likely be hoping another team doesn't return the favor, as it could force them to call an audible on draft night.
In Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo, the Magic appear to have their backcourt of the future, and they signed center Nikola Vucevic to a four-year, $48 million extension that kicks in next season. Thus, Orlando's biggest need is to find either a 3 or 4 to pair alongside Gordon, ideally one with consistent three-point range.
Kristaps Porzingis would be the ideal fit alongside Gordon and Vucevic in the Magic frontcourt, as ESPN Insider Chad Ford suggested in his "Grade A" draft, perhaps providing what the Magic expected from free-agent signing Channing Frye. The key for Orlando, whether it's Porzingis, Justise Winslow or Mario Hezonja, is simply sticking with the best-player-available strategy and eschewing any curveballs.
Worst Case: Abandoning "BPA" to draft for need
Conversely, if Porzingis, Winslow and/or Hezonja get selected earlier than expected—or if the Magic fall a few spots on lottery night—they must resist the temptation to punt on drafting for need over the best player available.
Stanley Johnson, Kelly Oubre and Frank Kaminsky might start to look awfully appealing if Orlando slips a spot or two in the lottery, but according to Ford, this class has a clear top seven: Porzingis, Winslow, Hezonja and the top four prospects. "Myles Turner and Willie Cauley-Stein are the other two that could push that to a Top 9 with great workouts," he wrote in a recent chat.
Thus, no matter where Orlando falls following the lottery, it will have a chance to obtain one of those players. Though Johnson, Oubre and Kaminsky might appear to be better fits with the Magic's current roster than someone like Cauley-Stein, they can't afford to draft for need at this point in their rebuild, as it remains unclear which (if any) of their youngsters are potential franchise stars.
Sacramento Kings
6 of 14
Best Case: Finding a frontcourt partner for DeMarcus Cousins
Over the past few months, the Sacramento Kings have been in desperate pursuit of a complement to DeMarcus Cousins, their franchise big man. According to CBS Sports' Ken Berger, the "Kings want to pair Cousins with a frontline player who would fit with his post-up skills—either a stretch four or above-the-rim defender" and were willing to move 2014 first-round pick Nik Stauskas to acquire said player.
Berger's report came in the pre-"Sauce Castillo" days, so it's unclear how open Sacramento is to moving Stauskas now. Regardless, for the Cousins-George Karl partnership to have any chance of achieving success, the Kings can't go into another season trotting out flotsam like Jason Thompson and Derrick Williams at the 4.
As long as Sacramento stays in the six-to-eight range on draft night, it should have no problem finding such a player. Myles Turner might be the best fit as a rim-protecting near-7-footer with legitimate shooting range, but Willie Cauley-Stein would be a strong defensive-minded presence to pair alongside Boogie, too.
Worst Case: Becoming enchanted with yet another shooting guard
After spending the No. 7 pick in 2013 on Ben McLemore and selecting Stauskas eighth overall last year, the one thing Sacramento doesn't need is yet another mid-lottery shooting guard. The challenge for general manager Pete D'Alessandro, therefore, will be to avoid any undue outside influences (namely, owner Vivek Ranadive) between now and draft night.
Last year, the Kings decided to crowdsource the analytics community for help with their draft strategy, which led them to select Stauskas over Elfrid Payton. It's too early to definitively declare that decision unwise—despite Sacramento's clear need for a point guard at the time—but the pick raised some major eyebrows.
This year, Mario Hezonja figures to be the Kings' kryptonite if they decide to go down the 2-guard path for the third straight year. Logic suggests they won't fall for the same trap once more, but Sacramento has proved wildly unpredictable under Ranadive's reign thus far.
Denver Nuggets
7 of 14
Best Case: Flipping Ty Lawson for a first-round pick
At the moment, the Denver Nuggets appear to be "trapped" in the NBA's dreaded "no man's land." They shipped out Timofey Mozgov for two future first-round picks in January and flipped Arron Afflalo for Will Barton and a lottery-protected first-rounder at the trade deadline, but they failed to commit to a full-on rebuild, moving one of the first-rounders from the Mozgov deal in a JaVale McGee salary dump.
Luckily, the draft may present an avenue for Denver to kill two birds with one stone. According to Christopher Dempsey of the Denver Post, point guard Ty Lawson is now "as susceptible to the next good trade offer as any other tradeable player in the NBA," as the front office has doubts about his long-term commitment to the franchise.
If the Nuggets can flip him to a point-guard-needy team for a draft pick—Grantland's Zach Lowe mentioned the Boston Celtics, Sacramento Kings and Houston Rockets as potential suitors this offseason—they would accelerate their rebuild considerably.
Worst Case: Refuse to choose a direction
While a full-on overhaul seems like the logical option for the Nuggets given Lawson's current status, it's imperative for them to decide upon a direction one way or another by draft night. Failing to do so will adversely affect their decision-making process when they're on the clock.
If Denver remains with one toe dipped into the rebuilding waters, the front office won't know whether to favor a "win now"-type player or the best-player-available strategy. Furthermore, if a high-upside project falls to the Nuggets—think Giannis Antetokounmpo two years ago—they'll be torn over whether they can wait that long for a mid-lottery pick to live up to his full potential.
Assuming the team does fully commit to tearing its current core to the ground, Denver can pick the best player available on its draft board and not think twice about it. A refusal to choose a direction, however, would only lead to additional chaos on draft night.
Detroit Pistons
8 of 14
Best Case: Getting a first-round pick for Brandon Jennings
When the Detroit Pistons acquired Reggie Jackson at the trade deadline, it cast doubt over Brandon Jennings' long-term future with the franchise. Though he's signed through 2015-16, he's also coming off a ruptured left Achilles' tendon, causing head coach Stan Van Gundy to concede to reporters that there's "a lot of uncertainty" around him.
Van Gundy suggested Jennings and Jackson could theoretically play alongside one another, but they're both ball-dominant point guards who aren't great defenders. Pairing the two together for extended stretches would be Detroit's way of guaranteeing itself another trip to the lottery in 2016.
With the Pistons planning on retaining Jackson in restricted free agency—"We wouldn't have made the move if we didn't feel ready to make this a long-term commitment," SVG said back in February—their best choice is to flip Jennings during the draft. They can only hope a point guard-needy team gets desperate and offers a first-round pick in return.
Worst Case: Top-tier centers fall to them
If there's one position the Pistons don't need to address during the draft, it's center. After a slow start to the season, Andre Drummond took off once the team waived Josh Smith, averaging 14.5 points, 13.9 rebounds and 1.9 blocks over his final 54 games.
During the Pistons' final regular-season game, team owner Tom Gores told reporters that Drummond is "a max player," all but revealing what he'll be offering the third-year center during extension negotiations this offseason. Accordingly, there's no need for Detroit to consider prospects like Cauley-Stein or Turner in this June's draft.
Thus, the nightmare scenario for Detroit would be if the teams ahead of it defied draft convention and allowed the top centers to slide. That would force the Pistons to eschew the best-player-available strategy—since Cauley-Stein or Turner would almost assuredly be at that point—to instead draft for need.
Charlotte Hornets
9 of 14
Best Case: Mario Hezonja takes a draft-day slide
No team needs to add sharpshooters more than the Charlotte Hornets. The newly rebranded franchise finished dead last in three-point field-goal percentage (31.8) and tied for the fourth-least triples per game, which helps explain why it had the league's third-worst offensive efficiency.
Charlotte didn't have a single player this season that knocked in at least 100 treys, making it one of only four franchises with that ignominious claim to fame. Unfortunately, if the lottery holds to form, the Hornets appear likely to miss out on the draft's top sniper, Mario Hezonja, who's a career 38.3 percent shooter from three-point range.
The team directly ahead of Charlotte in the lottery, the Detroit Pistons, could well become enchanted with Hezonja given their need for a sharpshooting wing to pair alongside Reggie Jackson and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. The Hornets can only hope Detroit opts to address its power forward position instead, leaving Hezonja to slide to No. 9.
Worst Case: Reaching for a shooter
If not, the Hornets will be forced to decide between drafting for need or taking the best player left. At that point, R.J. Hunter and Devin Booker figure to be the two top shooters available, but barring an electrifying rise during workouts, neither player figures to be the highest-rated prospect left on the board.
"The Hornets need a shooter, and they're in a funny place at No. 9," ESPN Insider Chad Ford wrote. "The two best shooters are ranked in another tier below them. Do they just reach because of need or do they hope that one of the guys in their range—[Kelly] Oubre, Stanley Johnson or Sam Dekker—turns into a really good shooter?"
Perhaps the Hornets fall in love with Hunter or Booker following the draft combine or private workouts, and they boost one (or both) on their draft board accordingly. If they go that route, however, they risk bypassing a higher-upside prospect due to their desperate need for a reliable long-range shooter.
Miami Heat
10 of 14
Best Case: Stanley Johnson falling to No. 10
With Luol Deng yet to decide whether he'll decline his $10.15 million player option to test free agency this summer, per Jason Lieser of the Palm Beach Post, the Miami Heat should prioritize wing players in the draft. Luckily, the Heat should have no shortage of top-tier prospects from which to choose, including Stanley Johnson, Kelly Oubre Jr. and Sam Dekker.
Of those three, Johnson figures to best replicate what Deng brings to the table. He's unlikely to be a top-tier NBA sharpshooter, despite knocking down 37.1 percent of his treys as a freshman at Arizona, but he'll make up for that with bulldog-esque defensive determination.
ESPN Insider Fran Fraschilla described Johnson as a "bully on the basketball court" and said his high energy level stands out. With Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Goran Dragic likely to soak up a majority of offensive possessions—assuming Dragic re-signs with Miami in free agency—Johnson would give the Heat a strong backup plan if Deng does decide to decline his player option.
Worst Case: Getting leapt and losing their pick
The Heat, who finished with the league's 10th-worst record, owe their first-round pick to the Philadelphia 76ers if it falls outside the top 10. Entering lottery night, there's just a 9.1 percent chance of that scenario unfolding, as one (or more) of the Indiana Pacers, Utah Jazz, Phoenix Suns or Oklahoma City Thunder would need to land a top-three selection.
Given the relatively remote odds of Miami losing its pick, that's clearly the franchise's worst-case scenario on draft night. Even if the Heat's selection in the late-lottery turns out to be a bust, that's better than not having a selection at all—and potentially strengthening an Eastern Conference foe in the process.
The pick is top-10 protected in 2016 and completely unprotected in 2017, so Miami is a lock to convey it within two years, no matter what. However, so long as the Heat's core players stay healthy in 2015-16, they should have little trouble qualifying for the playoffs and sending a much weaker pick to Philadelphia in 2016, too.
Indiana Pacers
11 of 14
Best Case: Snagging a center to fit their new identity
In mid-April, Indiana Pacers president Larry Bird made it clear that if center Roy Hibbert doesn't decline his $15.5 million player option, he's almost assuredly going to have a smaller role on the team in 2015-16.
"I was talking to coach earlier; we'd like to play a little faster tempo," Bird told reporters at the Pacers' end-of-season news conference. "And that means we've got to run a little faster, maybe at times play a little smaller. We just got into it, so I don't know what style, but we'd like to change it a little bit. … But I would like to score more points, and to do that, you've got to run."
Regardless of what Hibbert decides to do—he's not required to declare his intentions until after the draft—the Pacers would be wise to snag a center who can fit into this new offensive identity. If Turner or Cauley-Stein take a draft-day tumble, Indiana should pounce on either of them without hesitation, while Wisconsin big man Frank Kaminsky could be an intriguing target, too.
Worst Case: The top-tier bigs go off the board early
Hibbert isn't the Pacers' only concern when it comes to their frontcourt rotation. Luis Scola, Lavoy Allen and Shayne Whittington are all set to become unrestricted free agents on July 1, while David West could decline his $12.6 million player option to lock in one more long-term deal before he retires, too.
With only Ian Mahinmi guaranteed to be under contract this fall, the Pacers should hope the teams above them in the draft don't go on a big-man feeding frenzy. If Turner, Cauley-Stein and Kaminsky are all off the board when Indiana comes on the clock, it will lead to some tough choices for Bird and Co.
Paul George's presence on the roster negates the need for a prospect like Stanley Johnson, Kelly Oubre or Sam Dekker, but Devin Booker or R.J. Hunter would likely be a slight reach at No. 11. If this scenario comes to fruition, the Pacers' best option might be to trade down a few spots to acquire additional frontcourt depth elsewhere.
Utah Jazz
12 of 14
Best Case: Frank Kaminsky falling to No. 12
The Utah Jazz will enter draft night in an enviable position for any lottery-bound team: They don't have a position of need to fill in their starting lineup. Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert look like their frontcourt of the future, while Dante Exum, Alec Burks and Gordon Hayward have the backcourt positions locked down.
With Rodney Hood, Trey Burke and Trevor Booker rounding out the bench, the Jazz are in position to target the best player on their draft board, regardless of position. If Wisconsin center Kaminsky remains available at No. 12, he'd fill a position of need without making Utah deviate from its strategy.
Neither Favors nor Gobert possesses a reliable perimeter shooting stroke, raising questions about their long-term viability together on offense. Kaminsky could help mitigate those concerns by adding some much-needed floor spacing, while Gobert and Favors could help cover up his defensive deficiencies.
Worst Case: Becoming enchanted with another point guard
After spending the No. 9 overall pick on Burke in 2013 and drafting Exum fifth last June, point guard is the one position the Jazz should avoid, barring an unexpectedly meteoric fall from either Russell or Mudiay.
Utah may fall in love with Cameron Payne, Tyus Jones, Delon Wright or Jerian Grant as a potential replacement for Burke, but all four would likely be reaches at No. 12. If the Jazz decide to pursue an alternative to Burke, they'd be wise to trade down into the late teens or early 20s, where they'd have no trouble landing at least one of those prospects.
Becoming enamored with a backup point and staying at 12 would likely force Utah to eschew the best-player-available strategy, which is the last thing this franchise should be doing at the moment. Though the Jazz were the only team "whose point guards collectively rated below replacement level" this past season, per ESPN Insider Kevin Pelton, it's too early for them to burn another late-lottery pick on one.
Phoenix Suns
13 of 14
Best Case: Adding a big man with three-point range
With Brandan Wright set to become an unrestricted free agent this summer, the Phoenix Suns are perilously thin on frontcourt depth. Second-year center Alex Len showed flashes of the upside that made him the No. 5 overall pick in 2013, and Markieff Morris is signed to a steal of a four-year, $32 million deal, but that's the extent of Phoenix's under-contract bigs.
During the Suns' exit interviews, general manager Ryan McDonough said the team needed "a little more size, a little more rebounding," per Dave King of Bright Side of the Sun. Head coach Jeff Hornacek mentioned a need to add shooting, saying, "If you have shooters to go with [Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight], it's tough. How do you guard it?"
If Kaminsky slips to No. 13, he seems like a natural fit in Phoenix, but the Suns should otherwise have no shortage of high-upside bigs from which to choose. Keep an eye on Kentucky's Trey Lyles, in particular, who Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman says "has a game built for the NBA 4, where he can work the pick-and-pop game, face up and attack or score around the low block."
Worst Case: Second-tier wings slide to them
With P.J. Tucker, Marcus Morris and T.J. Warren all signed for the foreseeable future, the Suns have little need for another wing player. Thus, they'll hope the teams ahead of them fall in love with prospects such as Stanley Johnson, Kelly Oubre and Sam Dekker, allowing top-tier players at other positions to slide.
Conversely, if teams like the Miami Heat, Indiana Pacers and Utah Jazz all opt to choose the best big man available, Phoenix would be left to pick at the positional scraps. UNLV's Christian Wood and Arkansas' Bobby Portis may well have long NBA careers, but both would seemingly be reaches at No. 13.
The Suns could always take a prospect like Oubre or Dekker and look to flip one of their incumbents at the position, but opposing teams would try to take advantage of their desperation. Thus, Phoenix may be forced to punt on the best-player-available strategy depending on what Miami, Indiana and Utah do.
Oklahoma City Thunder
14 of 14
Best Case: Landing a reliable three-and-D option
If the Oklahoma City Thunder re-sign Enes Kanter in restricted free agency, they'll already have 14 players under contract without counting any draft picks. Accordingly, there's little reason to expect OKC's late-lottery selection to walk into major role in 2015-16, which should allow the franchise to target a reliable three-and-D prospect instead.
With Jeremy Lamb still having yet to discover a three-point stroke during his three-year career, the Thunder could use another sniper to pair alongside Kevin Durant and Anthony Morrow. When the Thunder go small with KD at the 4 and Serge Ibaka at the 5, they'd be damn near unguardable with two shooters and Russell Westbrook in the backcourt.
Hezonja figures to be long gone by the time OKC is on the clock, but at least one of Hunter and/or Booker should still be on the board. If one of those two can slide into the three-and-D role Lamb never could lock down, it could help convince Durant to re-sign with the franchise following the 2015-16 season.
Worst Case: Their lottery pick gets hurt during summer league
The Thunder suffered an unreal string of awful injury luck this season between Durant's ongoing foot issues, Westbrook's right hand fracture and Ibaka's season-ending knee surgery. Frankly, the fact they came anywhere close to a Western Conference playoff berth with all three of their top players sidelined for 15 or more games is astounding.
According to ESPN Insider Kevin Pelton, "the Thunder lost 19.2 WARP to injuries [in 2014-15], the second-highest total in the six years I've been tracking games lost leaguewide." In other words, so long as OKC's core members dodge any more health-related ailments this coming season, the team figures to be right back in the title conversation.
Thus, the last thing the Thunder want to see is their late-lottery pick going down with a long-term injury during summer league. If that does happen, Kevin Durant may finally begin believing in the Based God's curse.
All statistics are via NBA.com or Basketball-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted, and are current through the end of the 2014-15 regular season. All contract information is via Spotrac. All lottery odds and scenarios are via LotteryBucket.com.
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