Is Karl-Anthony Towns or Jahlil Okafor a Better Fit for New York Knicks' Future?

Jahlil Okafor and Karl-Anthony Towns are both pivotal to the New York Knicks' big picture, even if their big picture doesn't include either draft prospect.

Ping-pong balls will determine part of the Knicks' forthcoming course at the NBA draft lottery May 19. They have a 19.9 percent chance of landing the first overall pick after finishing with a bottom-two record record for the regular season and will fall no lower than fifth on the selection scale.

In the event math prevails, the Knicks will end up picking second, guaranteeing them a shot at Okafor or Towns, the two highest-rated players in this year's collegiate class. But while the Knicks could wind up at the mercy of whomever is left, their odds of leapfrogging the Minnesota Timberwolves and having run of the draft board remains significant enough to actuate debate.

It's a deliberation process that won't know a definitive end until the June 25 draft itself. In the meantime, though, the discussion rages on: Which prospect, Okafor or Towns, is the better fit for New York?

How Karl-Anthony Towns Fits In

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End the debate now.

Well, not really. But the Knicks do apparently prefer Towns to Okafor.

Sources told ESPN.com's Chad Ford the Knicks have Towns sitting atop their draft board, according to ESPN New York's Ian Begley. And it seems Towns is at least partially reciprocating that infatuation. As he told the New York Post's Marc Berman: "If I have the opportunity to ever play for the Knicks, that’s what I would love to do.’’

Team president Phil Jackson's emphasis on establishing a defensive identity validates the mutual interest between Towns and the Knicks even further.

“That’s the area we want to get good at,’’ he explained to reporters, per Berman. “The reason why I mentioned that bigs are our priority in the draft is because the defense has to be anchored by stopping the ball and having an intimidating force in the lane.”

Towns is the superior shot-blocker by far, and though the Knicks were one of the better teams at protecting the restricted area during the regular season, their standing is muddled by an inexpert three-point defense that invited opposing offenses to shoot uncontested deep balls.

Inserting the 6'11" Towns at power forward or center instantly gives New York the shot-blocking presence it hasn't enjoyed since before the Tyson Chandler trade. The 19-year-old sent back 2.3 shots in just over 21 minutes per game at Kentucky, blocking 11.5 percent of all attempts when on the floor.

He excels as a traditional paint-policer when stalking the rim, deterring dribble drives and disrupting all ball-handlers that are funneled his way. But he has a knack for defending more than one player on a single possession. He's smart enough to collapse on determined drivers, yet quick enough to rotate over off passes to the man he left behind:

Because Towns is both long and able to stop and recover on a dime, he's the ideal big to have on close-outs. He'll fall for up-fakes and planted pivots when sprinting to the outside, but his recovery chops are strong even that far away from the basket, and he has the coordination to contest shots while trailing the play:

Making those types of plays demands Towns stay on the floor, which he struggles to do. Even with John Calipari curbing minutes totals across the board, Towns still committed 5.6 fouls per 40 minutes, a wrinkle he'll need to iron out as rookie, when offenses attempt to exploit his overly aggressive hands.

Still, there's hope that Towns' shot-blocking acumen—which ranked second in the country among all freshman who played a minimum of 500 minutes—translates over to the NBA immediately. 

Look no further than Anthony Davis and Nerlens Noel, the two most-touted rim protectors to enter the Association over the last three years. Though their block percentages declined while making the transition, both still managed to rank in the top 15 during their rookie campaigns. 

Noel checked in at 13th this past season, and Davis finished in 11th for 2012-13. The latter, for the record, has gone on to crack the top five in each of the last two seasons.

Landing someone of that defensive ilk would be huge for the Knicks. They had just one player both clear 1,000 minutes and rank in the top 100 of block percentage during the regular season. That player was Jason Smith, who finished tied for 60th.

Much like Noel helped transform the Philadelphia 76ers defense as a rookie, Towns can do the same for the Knicks. They ranked 28th in points allowed per 100 possessions through Derek Fisher's first year on the sidelines, so any capable body figures to enact measurable change.

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The main knock on Towns is his ability to exist within an NBA offense right away. Opportunities to improve upon his weaknesses and fully expand his arsenal were scarce in Kentucky's player-packed offense, which allotted Towns under seven shot attempts per game.

Yet, as Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman pointed out, the foundation for offensive dominance is there:

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Nobody has shown the ability to cover more two-way ground than Karl-Anthony Towns, who's flashed everything from low-post scoring and shooting touch to passing, rim protection and rebounding.

Towns hasn't yet put it all together, but the gradual improvement he has shown is reason to be optimistic.

His over-the-shoulder game was practically unstoppable down the stretch. And though he didn't get the chance to take many jumpers in Kentucky's offense, he shot 81.3 percent from the line and looked comfortable on the perimeter.

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Floor-spacing bigs are offensive staples these days, and Towns projects as someone who can eventually step out and drain three-pointers. He attempted just eight total treys at Kentucky (hit two), but more than 50 percent of his two-point attempts were jumpers, of which he nailed a respectable 43.1 percent, according to Hoop-Math.com.

Having Carmelo Anthony works strongly in the Knicks' favor here. He can shoulder a bulk of the scoring duties and allow Towns to focus on playing defense while developing and deepening his offensive arsenal as a second or third option.

Which, in all honesty, is the closest thing to an ideal dynamic between Anthony and a rookie the Knicks will find.

How Jahlil Okafor Fits In

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Before Towns, there was Okafor, who began the college season as the consensus No. 1 pick. And though his status has come under siege in light of defensive warts and Towns' performance, he's still top-pick material.

As Grantland's Mark Titus ardently argued back in March:

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Okafor is still the obvious no. 1 pick in the NBA draft. D’Angelo Russell and Karl-Anthony Towns may have gained some ground on Okafor since the start of the season, but their rising stock feels like part of a contrived debate that gives us something to talk about until June. Okafor has to go first. People his size aren’t supposed to move like he does and catch everything that’s thrown at them. Toss in his touch, ballhandling, vision, and patience in the post, and you have one of the most offensively gifted freshman centers in the history of college basketball. How many 19-year-old centers have been able to catch a post feed as they step off the block, turn and face, and bank in a 10-footer just as easily as they could put the ball on the deck, spin off one defender, and dunk on another?

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There is no glossing over Okafor's transcendent offensive repertoire. He scores with a balanced mixture of ease, finesse and power that makes him beyond dangerous inside the post, even during a time when NBA offenses seldom cater to interior presences.

Okafor's lack of range and substandard free-throw shooting gets relegated to non-issue status, because of how he creates for himself. He can start with his back to the basket well outside the paint and still bully his way to the rim without regard for ensuing contact:

No other incoming player uses angles quite as effectively. Okafor gets great positioning anytime he's near the block, and his awareness allows for reactive bank shots when he's not attacking the rim:

The absence of a consistent mid-range or three-point game isn't a major issue. For one, Okafor looks like someone who can hone a prevalent jumper.

More than 38 percent of his shots were jumpers, according to Hoop-Math.com, and he converted a clean 50 percent of those opportunities. While his 51 percent clip from the foul line doesn't suggest room for perimeter growth, he should be able to parlay his touch from inside the elbow into some semblance of an outside game.

Besides, Okafor's handles render him a threat on the perimeter. He can dribble through traffic, find seams in the defense that don't appear to exist and an outside look into a point-blank layup:

Or a contact-creating and-one opportunity: 

All this is just a fancy way of saying it's no accident Okafor averaged 17.3 points on 66.4 percent shooting as a freshman while spearheading Duke's national championship run. And because he's polished beyond his years, he's a natural fit for the triangle offense New York is attempting to install.

Defenses have to respect his Swiss-Army-knife footwork and collapse on him. If he has no opening or view of the basket, he's shown he can find the open man.

There's a ton of room for Okafor to improve in the passing department, as his limited playmaking impact during the NCAA tournament showed, but he's at least comparable to Towns as a facilitator. Despite not playing above the rim, his rebounding rates hold up against the Kentucky product as well:

Where Okafor really starts to diverge from Towns is on the defensive end. He doesn't block enough shots, and Duke's defensive success was predicated on providing him help in the post while denying three or four other players the ball.

Quick hands and feet should aid in Okafor's progression at the NBA level. Defense is something that can be taught if the physical tools and engagement are there. That Okafor will never block shots in volume is of little concern. The right coach will know how to mask his lapses—ball-gazing, inability to guard off the dribble, etc.—until he's more alert and effective.

Immediately, though, Okafor gives the Knicks a pro-ready scorer and, therefore, the No. 2 sidekick Anthony has yet to have in New York. That alone is enough to like the fit.

Who Ya Got?

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Both Towns and Okafor are solid matches for the Knicks. They're in the market for talent at every position, and no one prospect is more talented than Towns or Okafor.

Towns is just the better fit overall.

Offense isn't the Knicks' main priority heading into the draft. They ran the equivalent of a top-10 offense with Anthony in the game. They can survive and improve without chasing extra buckets.

Anthony and Okafor also form an iffy defensive combination, should the Knicks trot them out at the 4 and 5, respectively. Neither is especially equipped to guard opposing bigs, which would only increase the pressure placed upon New York's already problematic perimeter defense.

Moreover, Towns is an easier sell to free agents. He doesn't need offensive touches to impact the game. He'll block shots, smother ball-handlers off screens and just be a general defensive nuisance, freeing up shot opportunities for Anthony and others.

Top free agents like LaMarcus Aldridge and Marc Gasol are going to want their shots. Towns not only doesn't take away from their chances, but his already extensive offensive range makes it easier for him to jump center or run beside another big man like Gasol or Aldridge.

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Of course, unless the Knicks land the first pick, none of this is their decision. If they fall outside the top two, they'll likely miss out on both. But if the ping-pong balls bounce in their favor, they'll have two can't-go-wrong options to choose from in Towns and Okafor, both of whom can be extremely valuable to their future.

It's just that the Knicks' future would make a whole lot more sense with Towns.

Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com, Sports-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited.

Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @danfavale.