
Where Does Tim Duncan Stand in the 2015 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Race?
Tim Duncan has earned five championships, three Finals MVP honors and two regular-season MVPs, but he doesn't have a Defensive Player of the Year to his name. Considering his career exploits, that may come as a surprise.
"It wouldn't be enough to simply call the 38-year-old power forward the best defender never to win DPOY," Joseph Flynn of The Cauldron said. "He is arguably the second-greatest defender of all time."
The longtime San Antonio Spurs star could change that this season, however, since he's a leading candidate to win the 2014-15 edition of the award.
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Duncan was the NBA's best defender through the 2014 calendar year, and the power forward has continued his excellence on that side of the floor after New Year's.
On a Spurs squad that has struggled to find consistent and effective offense, Duncan's defense is a major reason San Antonio remains in contention.
He's blocked 1.8 shots and grabbed 7.2 defensive rebounds per outing, which rank 10th and 13th in the NBA, respectively. The 18th-year pro has tallied the fourth-best defensive real plus-minus clip at 4.59, per ESPN.
According to Nylon Calculus, Duncan has saved 1.23 points, the 11th-highest mark by a player who has averaged 20-plus minutes. His 97 defensive rating is tied for the No. 2 spot leaguewide, while his 3.3 defensive win shares are No. 5.
As noted by Dan McCarney of the San Antonio Express-News, Duncan, at age 38, has maintained his presence due to basketball IQ rather than athleticism, just like his early days.
"Taking 25 pounds off several summers ago to take the strain off his balky right knee and aid his mobility have undoubtedly helped. But perhaps the biggest reason Duncan remains such an outstanding defender, even as his athleticism has declined, is because he never really relied on those qualities to begin with. Underrated as he might have been as an athlete in his 20s, Duncan's game was always based on intelligence and awareness, qualities that invariably led him to be in the right place at the right time.
"
But has Duncan accomplished enough at an elite level to merit receiving his first DPOY honor when compared to his competition?
Dwight Howard, Anthony Davis and Andrew Bogut have simply been sidelined too often to warrant serious consideration for the award. That doesn't mean they aren't spectacular rim protectors, because each one definitely is.
Nevertheless, the lowest percentage of regular-season games played by a DPOY winner since the award's inception in 1983 was David Robinson (82.9) in 1991-92. Howard can't reach that mark, while Davis and Bogut can only cut it close.
That leaves Marc Gasol, Rudy Gobert, Draymond Green, DeAndre Jordan and Serge Ibaka alongside Duncan as front-runners for the hardware.
| Tim Duncan | SAS | 54 | 27.5 | 46.9 | 97 | 3.3 |
| Marc Gasol | MEM | 59 | 21.8 | 48.6 | 100 | 3.5 |
| Draymond Green | GSW | 58 | 21.6 | 47.6 | 97 | 3.9 |
| Rudy Gobert | UTA | 59 | 25.4 | 38.0 | 99 | 2.4 |
| Serge Ibaka | OKC | 60 | 18.1 | 41.1 | 101 | 3.0 |
| DeAndre Jordan | LAC | 61 | 31.8 | 49.3 | 99 | 3.8 |
Note: Field-goal percentage allowed at the rim, according to NBA.com.
Gasol, the 2012-13 recipient of the trophy, has anchored the Memphis Grizzlies squad that allows the fewest points per game. The 7'1" center has posted a 100 defensive rating, complemented by the fourth-most win shares.
A tender 22 years old, Gobert has already earned a pair of fitting nicknames in "The Stifle Tower" and "The French Rejection." The Utah Jazz center averaged 3.6 blocks per 36 minutes, an important measurement since Enes Kanter played over Gobert until a deadline-day deal sent Kanter away.

Green boasts versatility unmatched by anyone in the league, since he's able to defend both in the post and at the three-point line. Of the 12 top players who've attempted the most shots against him, per NBA Savant, there are six power forwards, one small forward, two shooting guards and three point guards.
Ibaka, a three-time NBA All-Defensive first-team player, has shut down opponents where it's most needed. He's allowed a meager 46.8 percent clip within six feet of the hoop, which is 13.0 percent better than the league average, according to NBA.com.
Jordan has solidified himself as the one of the league's premier interior defenders—especially since Blake Griffin underwent surgery in early February. The Los Angeles Clippers center has swatted 2.3 shots and leads the league with 9.8 defensive boards per game.
Each candidate brings undeniable talent, but further separation is needed. The following chart measures opponents' offensive rating. A negative split is better than a positive one, because the former denotes a respective team's defense worsens when a certain player leaves the floor.
| Tim Duncan | SAS | 1,598 | 102.4 | 102.9 | -0.5 |
| Marc Gasol | MEM | 1,999 | 104.3 | 97.9 | 6.4 |
| Rudy Gobert | UTA | 1,350 | 103.0 | 110.8 | -7.8 |
| Draymond Green | GSW | 1,867 | 98.2 | 105.5 | -7.3 |
| Serge Ibaka | OKC | 1,973 | 102.9 | 104.8 | -1.9 |
| DeAndre Jordan | LAC | 2,080 | 106.9 | 104.2 | 2.7 |
Gasol and Jordan are stubborn in the post, but they don't necessarily change the game; Rather, both players hold their teams together, a still-important role that falls short of DPOY value this season.
In front of the duo, though, it's easy to recognize that Gobert and Green are the premier defenders, followed by Ibaka, then Duncan. The analytics certainly back up the eye test in those cases.
Gobert's issue, though, is his limited action to this point. The Stifle Tower has been outstanding when he's actually on the floor, but Gobert has logged more than 500 fewer minutes than Green, who's elevated Golden State's defense in every lineup at multiple positions.
Duncan and Ibaka simply cannot challenge what Green brings to the court, effectively containing isolation, pick-and-roll and post-ups by forwards and guards.
Consequently, Duncan's streak without a Defensive Player of the Year award will almost assuredly continue through the 2014-15 campaign, though he does deserve a top-five finish.
Yet that doesn't diminish the future Hall of Famer's impact this season. San Antonio wouldn't have survived its various setbacks without the veteran's defense.
Though a new award would freshen up his resume, Duncan's legacy won't be tarnished without a Defensive Player of the Year. Even if his name doesn't finally get etched into the trophy, Duncan is still an elite defensive force in the NBA.
Unless otherwise noted, stats are courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and are accurate as of games entering March 4.
Follow Bleacher Report NBA writer David Kenyon on Twitter: @Kenyon19_BR.



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