Indianapolis Colts Can Afford to Pass on Gordon, Gurley in Draft's 1st Round

Fans want stars. 

That's fine. I want stars too, and in all honesty, the Indianapolis Colts need stars. 

But just because the Colts need stars doesn't mean they should dip into the dangerous realm of using a first-round pick on a running back, even if Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon are two of the biggest names in the 2015 NFL draft. 

As the draft approaches, the Colts are increasingly being attached to a running back in the first round, especially the aforementioned stars. 

Just look at some of the mock drafts from the last few weeks: 

• CBS Sports' Rob Rang has the Colts taking Gordon. 
• Robert Davis of Football's Future also has Gordon to Indianapolis in the first round.
• The staff of 247Sports is on the Colts-Gordon train as well.
• And Russ Lande of GM Jr. Scouting has the Colts taking a swing at Minnesota's David Cobb in the first round.

And that's just mock drafts in January, which are generally all over the place. Just wait until April, when things reach a fever pitch. 

Setting the Stage

Let's get a few things straight—first, some basic exposition, if you will.

On one hand, draft position matters. The Colts are picking so late in the first round (29th) that it's almost a second-rounder in terms of value. 

Fans like to assign broad, vague values to draft picks based on round, even though there is a huge difference between the beginning, middle and end of a round, especially in the first round. It's one of the reasons why I wasn't nearly as hard on Bill Polian near the end of his career as others were. 

It's incredibly difficult to consistently produce stars at the end of the first round. Polian managed to grab Dwight Freeney, Dallas Clark, Reggie Wayne and Joseph Addai in the first part of the early 2000s, but he didn't have the same luck later in the decade, drafting Donald Brown, Anthony Gonzalez and Jerry Hughes (who I still contend is a good talent that was misused). 

So, using a first-round pick this late wouldn't be quite as egregious as using a top-15 pick on a runner, for example. I'll certainly acknowledge that. 

Another thing I'll concede early is that running back is certainly a need for the Colts. In fact, it may be one of their top few needs. 

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

With the news that Trent Richardson's late-year suspension voids the guarantees in his contract, per CBS Sports' Joel Corry, it's almost inconceivable that he'll return next season.

Ahmad Bradshaw is a free agent and has missed 23 games in the last two years alone. Dan Herron is a restricted free agent, and while he could receive a tender and be back next season, there is no guarantee. Vick Ballard has one more year on his rookie contract, but he's missed the last two seasons with an ACL tear and an Achilles tear, injuries that are incredibly difficult to return from. 

So that leaves undrafted free agent Zurlon Tipton and practice squad player Jeff Demps as the only backs who are sure to return in 2015. 

That's a huge hole, especially for a team that didn't run the ball well with Richardson, Bradshaw and Herron all on the team in 2014. The Colts desperately need to add talent at running back, quite possibly with a draft pick. 

But despite all that, I still can't get on board with a running back in the first round. 

The Historic Value

There are two parts to the "philosophical" side of this coin, and they both combine to make a compelling argument.

First, the value of running backs has decreased dramatically in recent years. This isn't a point that should surprise anybody. The research has been done; it's a fairly accepted point among NFL media. 

It's not that a running game isn't important or that running backs in general are just glorified role players. But they aren't the faces of the league they once were. We've seen this over the last 30 years as the amount of running plays per year has decreased consistently. 

To best understand this decline, especially how it relates to the draft, we turn to Chase Stuart, who delved into the issue on Football Perspective last May:

"

Everything is stacked against running backs now: not only are teams passing less often, but more teams are re-embracing the committee approach. In that light, the de-emphasis on the position in the draft isn’t that shocking. The more interesting question might be why teams teams didn’t spend more draft capital in the early ’00s on running backs compared to what they were doing a decade or two earlier?

But that’s fodder for another day. In any event, we can safely conclude that not only are college running backs not being viewed as substitutes for veteran running backs, but the position as a whole is being severely devalued. Part of that is the decline of the fullback, part of it is the increase in emphasis on the passing game, and part of it is the shift towards running back by committee. And I don’t see any of those elements changing significantly in the near future.

"

Stuart found that just 6 percent of the league's draft capital (weighted by round and position) was used on running backs in the last two drafts, the lowest amount in the league's history. It's not an anomaly either. The league has used less than 10 percent of draft capital on running backs 12 times in the last 14 drafts, something that had happened just three times in league history prior to 2000. 

With teams spending fewer early picks on running backs, that leaves more talent available in later rounds or undrafted at all. Everybody has heard the stories, from rags-to-riches guys like Arian Foster to Dan Herron playing a large role for Indianapolis in 2014. 

The other part of the value problem is that drafting a back in the first round is risky. All draft picks are, but running backs represent an inherently higher degree of risk because of the injury risks and short shelf lives. 

Just look at the first-round picks used on running backs in the last 10 years:

Year	Pick	Name	Team	Pro Bowls
2005	2	Ronnie Brown	MIA	1
2005	4	Cedric Benson	CHI	0
2005	5	Cadillac Williams	TB	0
2006	2	Reggie Bush	NO	0
2006	21	Laurence Maroney	NE	0
2006	27	DeAngelo Williams	CAR	1
2006	30	Joseph Addai	IND	1
2007	7	Adrian Peterson	MIN	6
2007	12	Marshawn Lynch	BUF	4
2008	4	Darren McFadden	OAK	0
2008	13	Jonathan Stewart	CAR	0
2008	22	Felix Jones	DAL	0
2008	23	Rashard Mendenhall	PIT	0
2008	24	Chris Johnson	TEN	3
2009	12	Knowshon Moreno	DEN	0
2009	27	Donald Brown	IND	0
2009	31	Beanie Wells	ARI	0
2010	9	C.J. Spiller	BUF	1
2010	12	Ryan Mathews	SD	1
2010	30	Jahvid Best	DET	0
2011	28	Mark Ingram	NO	1
2012	3	Trent Richardson	IND	0
2012	31	Doug Martin	TAM	1
2012	32	David Wilson	NYG	0

What a depressing list. 

Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch and Chris Johnson are the only backs out of 24 to make multiple Pro Bowls. The rest of those picks? While they're not all busts, most of those teams would probably like those picks back. 

Let's look at the players who made just one Pro Bowl: Ronnie Brown, Joseph Addai, DeAngelo Williams, Ryan Mathews, C.J. Spiller, Mark Ingram and Doug Martin. 

That's the "second tier" of first-round running backs in the last 10 years. It's not a pretty picture. 

Not only are you drafting talent that could likely be replaced by others later in the draft, but you are missing out on the opportunity to draft high-quality talent at other positions. Unless you lucked into some extra picks, this is your only chance at top-30 talent. Even if the running back turns out to be a decent starter, the missed-opportunity risk is high. 

The Talent

Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images

So, in order for a running back to be worth a first-round pick for me, the Colts either need to be blessed with talent in most or all other areas—which is not the case—or the running back talent simply needs to be too good to pass up in the first round. 

Unfortunately, that's just not true either.

Don't get me wrong—both Gordon and Gurley have done some amazing things in college, but there is certainly risk attached. 

Gurley is the most obvious risk. I mean, the guy tore an ACL in November. Sure, he could come back and still be great; it's possible. 

But it's also possible that he's never a great back again. Those kind of ACL injuries have done that to backs before, and it's not nearly as uncommon as Gurley backers would have you believe. 

The Colts have essentially wasted their last two first-round picks, and now you want to have them use the next one on damaged, potentially ruined goods? 

Then there is Gordon, the man most often linked to the Colts in mock drafts and the one guy most people would say makes this decision defensible at all. 

Gordon's quickness and acceleration are among the best in the NFL, and many compare him to the Kansas City Chiefs' Jamaal Charles. He's a big-play threat on any given down and excels in open space. 

Unfortunately, he lacks the power of a more well-rounded back, and he's unproven in the passing game—both big things to consider for the Colts.

Just ask NFL.com's Lance Zierlein, who had glowing things to say about Gordon but didn't ignore the weaknesses in his game: 

"

Desires to bounce runs wide too often. Not as trusting of blocking from B-gap to B-gap. Held to 'stuffs' -- runs resulting in no yards or a loss -- on 19.2 percent of his carries. Feel and instincts as interior runner need improvement. Shows indecisiveness as one-cut runner. Would gear down and stutter-step to line, waiting for crease to show itself rather than adjusting on fly and taking what was available. Play strength through hole was only average. Used speed over strength to create many missed or broken tackles. Benefited from gaping running lanes. Ball security was an issue. Fumbled six times over his final five games, often being stripped while finishing run. Uncomfortable pass-catcher with marginal hands. Either dropped, double caught or smothered many throws. Pass protection needs work. Might have to come off field on third downs.

"

While the Colts offensive line is better than it has been in recent years, it's still not a powerful line that gets great push in the run game. Having open space in the backfield and at the line of scrimmage is a rare thing for Indianapolis, and backs need to have patience and anticipation to excel. 

No, I don't think Gordon will necessarily flame out like Trent Richardson, but I don't think Indianapolis is in a place where he would be guaranteed to excel.

Like Richardson, Gordon isn't going to be able to outrun as many NFL defenders as he did in college, and that could have a big impact. In an offense with a more powerful offensive line, he could likely be a star. But because Gordon didn't have as much of an opportunity to develop patience, vision and anticipation needed in Indianapolis, I have reservations about his developing in Indianapolis.

And there's the question about Gordon's ability to pass protect and be an integral part of the passing game. Andrew Luck and the passing game are the offense in Indianapolis, so why draft a back who may not be able to contribute in those areas? If the Colts are going to draft a running back with their first-round pick, it needs to be somebody who can be a true workhorse, a three-down back who can eliminate the need for a committee. 

I just don't see a guarantee that that happens with Gordon. 

Fans of both players won't like criticisms, and those who have seen highlight runs on SportsCenter all season may scoff. But the truth is that Indianapolis' offensive line isn't exactly an ideal situation for a young running back who excels in space, especially after the team just fired its running back coach.

It's almost a given that the Colts will select a running back at some point in this draft. The draft is incredibly deep at running back, with arguably 10-12 players who could make an impact as a rookie next season. 

The Colts need help at running back, and I'd be surprised if they didn't draft one. It's similar to wide receiver in last year's draft; the Colts have holes, and the draft has the supply to fill them. 

With it being that deep, I just don't see the need to spend a first-rounder on one. The backs available later may not be quite as talented, but the cost and potential missed opportunities are much lower. Backs like Tevin Coleman, Ameer Abdullah, Duke Johnson, Jay Ajayi, T.J. Yeldon, David Cobb, David Johnson and more will likely be available in the second round and beyond. 

Be patient. 

After you combine the running back's declining value, the Colts' lackluster run support and the 2015 running back class, I simply don't see a situation where taking a running back first would be the Colts' best course of action.

If Gordon or Gurley is there in the second round? Come talk to me.

Kyle Rodriguez is Bleacher Report's lead featured columnist for the Indianapolis Colts. He is also the editor-in-chief of Colts Authority and Colts Academy and a PFWA Dick Connor Writing Award recipient. Follow him on Twitter for year-round Colts and NFL analysis.