Colts vs. Patriots: Breaking Down Indianapolis' Game Plan

Once again, the Indianapolis Colts are underdogs on the road. 

In 2012, the Colts went to Baltimore for a wild-card playoff game. They lost 24-9. 

In 2013, the Colts went to New England for a divisional playoff game. They lost 43-22. 

In 2014, the Colts went to Denver for a divisional playoff game. This time, they won, pulling off the 24-13 upset with stout play on both sides of the ball.

Now, the Colts hope to continue that streak in New England, where they haven't won since 2006 (ironically, the year the Colts last won a Super Bowl). They are underdogs, sure, and have a lot working against them considering New England's 42-20 win in Indianapolis in November. 

But don't tell that to the Colts, who just pulled off the biggest upset in team history by beating Peyton Manning on his home turf. This Colts team was supposed to be the AFC's most likely to go one-and-done, and now, they're in the AFC Championship Game. 

Anything can happen in the playoffs. 

In order for this fantasy ride to continue, however, the Colts have to go into Foxborough and beat the AFC's best. How can they avoid a repeat of last season's playoff loss? Or even this year's regular-season embarrassment? 

Offense: A Balancing Act

Last week, I wrote about how while the Colts needed to take some of the pressure off of Luck's shoulders, they couldn't waste too many plays against the Denver Broncos' stout run defense.

Well, the Colts did try to run the ball, and while the Broncos held the Colts to just 3.5 yards per carry, they were successful on over 41 percent percent of their runs, which would rank around league average, according to Advanced Football Analytics. 

The Colts don't need to be a grind-it-out football team; in fact, they can't. But if they can get a few successful runs early, they can keep a defense off balance, which is what they did on Sunday.

After throwing it 11 times and not running it at all on the first two drives of the game, the Colts ran the ball five times for 19 yards on the third drive, leading to the team's first touchdown. Then Luck was able to take advantage in play action. In fact, all three of Luck's touchdown passes in the postseason have come off play action. 

Against the Patriots, the Colts have to avoid the imbalance that occurred in the last matchup, when the Colts running backs ran 13 times for just four yards. Meanwhile, Andrew Luck dropped back 43 times. 

Fortunately for Indianapolis, the Colts run game has been more successful as of late and the New England run defense has shown weakness. 

Game	Total Yards	Average	Success Rate
CIN (Wild Card)	114	4.6	40.0%
DEN (Divisional)	99	3.5	41.4%
Regular Season	100.8	3.9	44.3%
NE (Week 11)	19	1.2	29.4%

The Baltimore Ravens' Justin Forsett ran the ball 24 times for 129 yards on Saturday, picking up a healthy 5.4-yard average. While the Colts aren't the same threat on the ground, Dan "Boom" Herron and a revamped offensive line has given the offense a boost—and will need to again Sunday to keep Luck from having to force throws on long third downs.

Offense: Test the New England Safeties

Fans should know all about the Patriots' talented secondary by now, with Devin McCourty and Darrelle Revis being among the league's best at safety and cornerback, respectively, and the surrounding pieces (Brandon Browner, Patrick Chung, Kyle Arrington) working well in their respective roles. 

The Colts will need to attack that group with its wealth of weapons, overwhelming the New England secondary with multiple deep threats and versatile offensive sets. 

One way the Colts can get big plays against the Patriots secondary is by forcing McCourty to choose in single-high sets. With T.Y. Hilton, Coby Fleener and Donte Moncrief all possessing the ability to stretch the defense vertically, the Colts can combine two or three deep routes to put him in a bind.

The Patriots will likely have strong safety Patrick Chung and inside linebacker Jamie Collins focused on dump-offs to the running back and tight ends Dwayne Allen and Jack Doyle, since the Colts have used those so heavily in the first two rounds of the playoffs. 

This should open up room in the middle of the field for Coby Fleener, or up the sidelines for Hilton or Moncrief if McCourty sticks to the middle zones. 

Bill Belichick and the Patriots are sure to have something special cooked up for Luck and the Colts, but if the offensive line can continue to give Luck time in the pocket, the Colts should have enough weapons to overwhelm the Patriots down the field. 

Defense: Don't Get Run Over

If there is one thing the Colts can't allow in this game, it's a repeat of the last two matchups, in which the Colts have given up an average of 240 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns. 

That's an average over two games. 

That kind of defense makes it near-impossible to win games. Not only does it waste time and keep Luck off the field, but it wears a defense down and makes for a long second half. Just ask the Colts, who allowed the Patriots to score touchdowns on their first four drives of the second half and then grind the final 4:17 off the clock in the fifth and final drive.

If the Colts can stop the running game, or at least slow it down and minimize the big plays, they can force Tom Brady to throw the ball on third down. The Colts have actually been very well on third down in the postseason, allowing opponents to convert on just 33.3 percent of their third- or fourth-down attempts, the best mark of any team in the postseason. 

Granted, Brady likely will be able to throw the ball better than Andy Dalton or a gimpy Peyton Manning, but the Colts secondary has been playing lights-out to start the postseason and was able to intercept Brady twice in the two teams' first matchup.

Defense: Make Brady Think Outside the Box

Speaking of Brady, the Colts have to take away his bread and butter: the middle of the field. 

With Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman as his main targets, Brady loves to go to the middle of the field, whether it's on crossing routes or up the seam. The Colts need to make this area of the field as congested as possible in an attempt to tempt Brady into throwing the ball long and outside, his biggest weakness. 

This means that instead of their usual man coverage, the Colts may have to work in a few more zone coverages on Sunday, especially by mixing in Cover 3 and quarters coverages. 

By using Cover 3, the Colts can keep their cornerbacks from having to chase receivers across the field, instead limiting them to boundary routes that they generally excel at covering. Unfortunately, this can open up room for Gronkowski to get favorable matchups up the seam if the safety isn't disciplined.

In quarters, the use of two deep safeties covering the seams can help keep Gronkowski from finding room to operate, but opens the Colts up to underneath routes. 

Make no mistake, the Colts will have to play man, as that is their base defense and the one that the secondary is most comfortable in. In those cases, the Colts linebackers will need to be aware of picks and rub plays and be ready to move quickly through traffic to running backs or tight ends leaking out in the flats. 

Brady is at his best when he can sit in the pocket and hit his receivers for short gains play after play. The Colts can't allow free releases over the middle of the field where Brady can dink and dunk them to death. That may mean occasionally being vulnerable to big plays, but you would rather test Brady's deep accuracy than his quick trigger and short accuracy. 

Great teams take away their opponents' strengths. The Patriots have done that against the Colts in recent matchups, now it's time the Colts flipped the script.