Colts vs. Broncos: Breaking Down Indianapolis' Game Plan

Here we go again. 

Peyton vs. Luck Part III. 

When the Indianapolis Colts face the Denver Broncos at Mile High Stadium on Sunday, it will mark the third meeting between the two teams in the last three years. The series is currently tied 1-1 since the Peyton Manning-Andrew Luck transition, with the third meeting having a trip to the AFC Championship Game on the line. 

While so much of the pregame discussion will revolve around Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning (rightly so, given the two's superstar status), the two won't actually be playing against one another unless the Colts decide to play Luck at linebacker. 

So sure, the Manning vs. Luck angle isn't quite applicable, although whichever quarterback plays better will likely win this game. 

Fortunately, there are plenty of other critical matchups to examine before the two face off. The Broncos have done almost everything better during the regular season, so the Colts will need to rise up to the challenge if they want to advance to the AFC Championship Game for the first time since 2009. 

Offense: Work the Linebackers

The Broncos have certain defensive strengths, namely its star-studded secondary (Aqib Talib, Chris Harris Jr. and Bradley Roby) and a pair of decorated pass-rushers (Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware). 

While the Colts will have to throw the ball, they have to be smart about where they concentrate their attack.

This is where the Broncos' weaknesses come in: the inside linebackers. The Colts worked the linebackers well in Week 1, as Luck relied heavily on his running backs as outlets and the tight ends in the middle of the field. 

Positions	Targets	Catches	Yards	TDs
Running Backs	10	8	101	0
Tight Ends	13	7	85	1
Totals	23	15	186	1

The one soft spot in the Denver defense is the linebackers, and that's magnified if Brandon Marshall is gimpy at all. Marshall missed the last two games of the regular season with a mid-foot sprain, but was back at practice this week and should play Sunday. However, he may feel some lingering effects from the injury. 

Regardless, expect Dan Herron (who had 10 catches last week), Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen to play a big part in the Colts offense on Sunday. 

Offense: Don't Waste Plays

If you've read this column in recent weeks, you'd notice a trend: Me spouting about the Colts' need to get the run game going. 

To some extent, that's still true. Just look at the Colts' win over the Cincinnati Bengals last week. With success in the run game early, Luck was able to utilize play action later very well and had the best game of his career. 

So, yes, getting the run established would be great for Indianapolis. 

But let's be honest, that's probably not going to happen. 

Unlike the Bengals, the Broncos are actually good at stopping the run. In fact, they are one of the league's best at run-stuffing. 

Team	Yards/Game (Rank)	Yds/Carry	Run DVOA	Adj. Line Yards
Denver Broncos	79.8 (2)	3.7 (4)	-23.7% (3)	3.20 (2)
Cincinnati Bengals	116.3 (20)	4.2 (18)	1.3% (28)	4.24 (27)

Sure, the Colts were able to run the ball well last week, but they were able to run the ball well in the two team's first matchup (Week 7) as well. The Bengals were one of the few teams the Colts were able to run the ball efficiently against. 

The Broncos? Not so much. 

So while the Colts shouldn't completely abandon the run, they can't waste plays trying to establish a ground presence if it's not working. The Colts will need as efficient of an offense as possible if they are to defeat the Broncos on the road, and setting themselves up for long third downs won't help in that department. 

Don't be afraid to put the ball in Andrew Luck's hands.

Defense: Stop the Run Without Selling Out

You can't say that the Colts have been good in run defense this year.

This is, after all, the team that got rocked by Jonas Gray and the New England Patriots to the tune of  201 yards and four touchdowns in Week 11. 

The Colts are 19th in the league in Football Outsiders' run DVOA and 23rd in yards per carry allowed. 

You simply can't look at their body of work this season and say they've been good at stopping the run. 

However, what they have done is flash an ability to stop the run. They controlled the run very well against the run-heavy Bengals in both contests, a huge reason why they were able to dominate both of those games defensively, for example. In the Week 1 loss to Denver, they limited starting running back Montee Ball to just 3.2 yards per carry. 

"

#Colts Pagano: We've got confidence in run defense, playing at highest level since we've been here.

— Conrad Brunner (@1070Bruno) January 7, 2015"

Over the last two years, the Colts have flashed an ability to limit an opponent's running game when they can buckle down and focus on just that (this hasn't happened in either game against the Patriots, but let's put those aside for now). 

Over the last month of the season, the Broncos made a concerted effort to get their ground game going. Now they enter the postseason with the most terrifying thing for any defense: a balanced offense. 

If the Colts are going to slow the Broncos and Peyton Manning, they have to keep from getting run over by C.J. Anderson and the Broncos run game, and they have to do it without resorting to consistent eight- and nine-man boxes, which Manning will eat alive with play action. 

Defense: Make 'Em Work

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

The Colts have to approach Manning in this game much like a basketball team approaches an elite scorer. Manning, like Kevin Durant or Kobe Bryant, will get his. He'll score his touchdowns and pick up his passing yards. The Colts simply don't have the all-time defensive talent (I'm looking at you, Seattle) it takes to shut Manning down completely. 

But, like in basketball, you can't let it come easy. 

Make Manning work for it, make him uncomfortable in the pocket. Don't let him sit back in the pocket and scour the field with little to no pass rush. The Colts can't blitz on every play, but they can disguise their coverages and stunts and occasionally risk a big play to make Manning uncomfortable.

The Colts did that well in the second half of the two teams' matchup earlier in the season. After scoring 24 points with ease in the first half, the Colts limited the Broncos to just seven in the second half, and nearly came back to take the game. 

The football game is 60 minutes long, and there will be moments when it seems like Manning and the Broncos offense is unstoppable. But keep attacking, keep pressing Manning, and eventually the defense will get a break.

Maybe it's a turnover. Maybe it's simply a few empty possessions in a row. 

Whatever it is, it might just be what the Colts offense needs to gain some momentum.

No matter how the Broncos start the game, the Colts have to stay patient. Continue to attack Manning, to make him work. Make him hit tight windows in the passing game and adjust to odd pass-rushing stunts. 

Do that, add a little Luck and the Colts might just end up taking a trip to the AFC Championship Game.