Patriots vs. Packers: Complete Week 13 Preview for Green Bay
According to the AP Pro32 poll and anybody who’s paid attention to the NFL in recent weeks, Sunday’s 4:25 p.m. ET showdown between the New England Patriots (9-2) and Green Bay Packers (8-3) at Lambeau Field pits the league’s best two teams against one another in a potential Super Bowl preview.
Oh, and it’s the first-ever matchup of Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers as starting quarterbacks.
Bill Belichick’s Patriots are winners of seven straight since their debacle at Kansas City in Week 4 (41-14 loss), while the Pack have won seven of eight. New England’s plus-130 point differential is tops in the NFL, while Green Bay is No. 2 at plus-108.
Brady’s having himself another Pro Bowl-worthy season, tossing 26 touchdowns and six interceptions through 11 games with a 101.0 passer rating. There might not be a more dangerous receiving option than Rob Gronkowski at tight end, who’s totaled five touchdown catches the last four games.
In the grand scheme of things, this game is just one of 16, and the fact it’s not against an NFC opponent means it will factor little into potential playoff tiebreakers, but it’s a great litmus test and a chance to see just how good these Packers are.
Week 12 Recap
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Many Packers fans assumed Green Bay’s Week 12 showdown at Minnesota would be a walk in the park.
That was not the case.
The Packers faced a spry Vikings team and just eked out a 24-21 win at TCF Bank Stadium thanks in large part to a season-high 125 yards rushing and two touchdowns from Eddie Lacy, just his second 100-yard performance of the season.
With a three-point lead and just over three minutes left, Green Bay held the football and a chance to run out the game. Five punishing carries from Lacy and two first downs later, that was all she wrote.
Though the defensive numbers look nice on the stat sheet—308 yards allowed, five of 13 conversions on third down—much of that was self-inflicted by the Vikings. Rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater admitted to the Star Tribune’s Mark Craig his excitement to play the Pack led to some errant first-half throws, and drops from receivers Charles Johnson and Jarius Wright killed drives.
Put on the tape of Green Bay’s previous win against Philadelphia, and you’ll see much of the same. Quarterback Mark Sanchez had receivers open but missed them. Tom Brady won’t make the same mistakes.
The Vikings played a lot of two-high coverage, keeping safeties Robert Blanton and Harrison Smith deep so as to take away the shots down the field. It worked, with Jordy Nelson averaging just 8.5 yards per reception on his eight catches, far below his 15.7-yard average this season. Green Bay’s ground game was able to take advantage, though, with Lacy running wild and eventually sealing the victory.
News and Notes
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Quarless Questioned
Packers tight end Andrew Quarless, who came into the league the same time as Gronkowski, told the Journal Sentinel’s Tyler Dunne he’s excited to be on the same field with his fellow 2010 draftee and see how he matches up. Quarless’ career numbers are dwarfed by Gronkowski’s (just six career touchdowns to Gronk’s 51), but “Q” has a chance to play a key role with so much of the Patriots’ focus on stopping Lacy and the Packers’ wideouts.
Bubbleguts Lacy
Mike McCarthy says the team is still monitoring Lacy, who was unavailable to the media following the Week 12 win over Minnesota. The reason? Lacy was battling a gastrointestinal illness. Guard Josh Sitton said he could tell Lacy was fighting something, and McCarthy lauded his second-year running back’s toughness.
"I think it’s really just a credit to Eddie," McCarthy said. "He’s a heck of a football player. Just for him to go out and have that performance in that situation I think speaks volumes to the type of person he is.”
I Smell a Troll
Was Rodgers trolling the Vikings with his postgame drink selection?
"Taking a swig of grape soda, Crush, after beating the Vikings again. Rodgers low-key trolling here pic.twitter.com/S64JCLzXk8
— Master Tesfatsion (@MasterStrib) November 24, 2014"
Apparently not, as Rodgers has either a grape or orange Crush soda and peanut butter and jelly sandwich after every game, according to Rodgers on his weekly “Tuesdays With Aaron” radio spot with ESPNWisconsin.com’s Jason Wilde.
I kinda wish he had been trolling.
Injury Report
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| Player | Position | Injury Status | |
| Davante Adams (Heel) | WR | Probable | |
| Brandon Bostick (Hip) | TE |
| |
| Jarrett Bush (Groin) | CB |
| |
| T.J. Lang (Ankle) | G |
| |
| Nick Perry (Shoulder) | LB | Questionable | |
| Josh Sitton (Toe) | G |
|
Davante Adams was added to the injury report Thursday after he was stepped on in Wednesday's practice, according to Packers.com. McCarthy says he's not too concerned about the injury, and his probable status on Friday theoretically gives the rookie wideout a 75% chance to suit up
Nick Perry, who missed last week's Minnesota game, could miss this week's contest as well if his shoulder injury doesn't improve.
Lang and Sitton will be good to go.
Injury statuses courtesy of Packers.com.
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X-Factor and Matchups to Watch
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Packers Wide Receivers vs. Patriots Secondary
I loved New England’s acquisition of Darrelle Revis from the minute it signed him. After a slow start to the season, Revis has rounded into his usual All Pro form. Last week in a 34-9 win over Detroit, Revis posted his highest PFF grade (subscription required) of the season (5.5), allowing just two receptions on 10 targets and recording three passes defended. Revis spent the majority of his time on Golden Tate since Brandon Browner (and a safety over the top) was tasked with stopping Calvin Johnson. The Lions duo combined to catch just eight of the 20 passes thrown their way. New England’s secondary has combined to allow opposing passers just an 82.0 passer rating, sixth-best in the league. Green Bay is fourth at 80.2.
Rob Gronkowski vs. Packers Defense
Even when Gronk isn’t running a route, he’s still a great player. Basically a sixth offensive lineman when asked to stay in and block, Gronkowski is unquestionably the league’s top end in large part thanks to his versatility.
The Journal Sentinel’s Dunne opined that Brad Jones might be the guy tapped to cover Gronk down the field, though it’ll need to be a team effort to truly have an impact. Jones has terrific speed for a linebacker, and it seems he’s emerged from the doghouse after such a slow start to the season. If I’m the Packers, I make sure to never let Gronkowski get a clean release off the line of scrimmage and employ three- and four-safety packages to get some bigger defense backs on the field.
Tim Wright
After playing sparingly in his first 10 games as a Patriot (no game with more than 22 offensive snaps), the former Tampa Bay Buccaneer was on the field for 61 of 81 snaps in the win over Detroit, hauling in two touchdown passes to bring his season total to six. With so much attention focused on Gronk, there’s the potential for Wright to have himself another big day. And with Belichick’s affinity for using one running back and two tight ends on a play, Wright has earned himself the right to see the field more often than not.
Prediction
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Though this matchup has been touted as “Rodgers vs. Brady,” the reality is that those two players will not directly compete against one another.
Instead, it’ll be Rodgers vs. Bill Belichick’s defense and Brady vs. Dom Capers’ defense.
Capers can scheme like hell against a quarterback like Jay Cutler, but Brady is a different animal altogether. His short-range accuracy is unmatched, and he’s one of the greatest of all time at putting the offense in the most successful play at the line of scrimmage. Capers notoriously struggles against top-shelf quarterbacks, evidenced recently by Drew Brees' scorching of the Green Bay defense (27-of-32 passing, 311 yards, three touchdowns) in a Week 8 blowout loss to the Saints at the Superdome.
And if this game was to be played at Gillette Stadium, I would pick the Patriots and not give it a second thought.
But Green Bay is the venue for Sunday’s showdown. And the Pack have been red-hot in the state of Wisconsin, jumping out to a combined 128-9 halftime lead in the team’s last four home games.
Those four games, however, were against the Vikings, Panthers, Bears and Eagles, four teams that are not quarterbacked by Tom Brady.
In the end, this is shaping up to be one of the best matchups of the 2014 season. The No. 1 and No.2 offenses will square off in a potential shootout. And I like the home team with the better quarterback.
Prediction: Packers 35, Patriots 34.
Odds by Odds Shark: Green Bay (-3)
Follow me on Twitter @PeterSowards.
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