49ers Can't Afford Poor Offensive Play Versus Seahawks in Week 13
The San Francisco 49ers will have to perform better, offensively, when they host the rival Seattle Seahawks in Week 13 on Thursday Night Football.
San Francisco's defense has done its fair share in 2014. Prior to Week 12, the 49ers defense had allowed the fourth-fewest all-purpose yards (3,088). San Francisco also ranked No. 11 in the NFL in fewest points allowed (212) before hosting the Washington Redskins on Sunday.
But the defense isn't the element in question.
The 49ers will have to figure out what's wrong with their offense in a hurry. The short week provides little opportunity for the coaching staff and players to correct their issues prior to Thursday night. And it isn't as if San Francisco will host a defensively weak opponent.
Playing the Numbers Game
Through Weeks 11 and 12, the 49ers have combined to score a total of 33 pointsāgaining 333 and 312 yards during each respective contest. But the story does not end with just yards or points.
On the season, San Francisco's offense ranks No. 18 in the league with an average of 342.8 yards per game according to StatMilk.com (subscription required).
In contrast, the Seahawks are averaging 366 yards per contest, which ranks No. 11 in the league. Not surprisingly, their rushing attack ranks No. 1 with an average of 174.2 yards per game. San Francisco is at No. 7 in this category with a 124.8-yard average.
This will matter as these two teams will likely slug things out on the ground in Week 13.
But how does Seattle match up against the running game?
The Seahawks are seventh in the league in fewest rushing yards against (908). This is a unit that held the Arizona Cardinals to just 64 rushing yardsāan average of just 3.2 yards per carryāin Week 12. On average, teams are gaining just 3.6 yards per carry against Seattle.
Increasing this average will fall upon 49ers running backs Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde, who were averaging 4.1 and 3.8 yards per carry, respectively, prior to Sunday's contest versus the Redskins.
Running the ball will be a necessary part of the equation, much like it was a season ago when the 49ers bested the Seahawks 19-17 at home in Week 14.
But challenging Seattle's vaunted secondary will also be a necessary aspect.
The Seahawks have allowed an average of 215 passing yards per gameāstatistically not the best in the league, but more than enough to create problems for quarterback Colin Kaepernick and his crop of receiving targets.
Absent from San Francisco's stat sheet in recent weeks have been Nos. 3 and 4 wideouts Stevie Johnson and Brandon Lloyd, both of whom were held to zero catches in Week 12. We can expect the Seahawks defense to attempt to bottle up Anquan Boldin and Michael Crabtree, but Johnson and Lloyd will need to be a part of the equation.
Then there is the lack of production out of tight end Vernon Davis.
With just 18 receptions and two touchdowns on the year, Davis is statistically having the worst season of his career since his rookie campaign in 2006. Getting him back into the picture will be a need if the 49ers want to find some sort of continuity.
Finding the Balance
San Francisco has the ability to score points in the first half. The second has been another issue. Twenty-six fourth-quarter points prior to Week 12 are all the 49ers could muster before a game-saving touchdown sealed San Francisco's victory against Washington.
This breakdown from Stat Milk provides a detailed quarter-by-quarter breakdown of the two teams:
Kaepernick also had a 66.0 passer rating in the fourth frame entering Sunday per Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area.
It might come down to another fourth-quarter score that proves to be the difference between San Francisco and Seattle. Hopefully the 49ers can back up this stat in what has been a problematic area thus far.
But the time-of-possession battle will also be a vital factor.
Keep in mind the running nature of both teams. In Seattle, it's Marshawn Lynch. In San Francisco, it's Gore and Hyde. Maintaining possession and sustaining drives will be paramount in wearing down two elite defenses.
Effective rushes will be a need for both offenses.
Yet if Seattle is able to limit the 49ers on the ground, it will fall upon Kaepernick and the passing game to continue these drives. On a positive note, the Seahawks have just six interceptions on the seasonātied for No. 23 in the league.Ā
Can offensive coordinator Greg Roman dial up a scheme that can take advantage of Seattle's defense?
More importantly, can these 49ers drives wind up in the end zone and not as field goals?
Finding Red-Zone Paydirt
San Francisco was 1-of-2 in red-zone appearances against Washington, which was a step up over its 0-of-4 showing against the New York Giants a week ago.
Prior to the matchup, the 49ers ranked No. 31 in red-zone touchdown efficiency.Ā
That's not very good. It will have to be in what promises to be a dogfight on Thursday.
Davis has to be considered a part of the 49ers' red-zone woes. Out of his 55-career touchdowns, 34 have come within the red zone. If there has ever been a time to get Davis back into a legitimate role, Week 13 will be it.
Roman described, via Maiocco, how the offense attempted to get Davis into the red-zone picture against the Giants just over a week ago:
"He was the primary last week on a couple, but the defense a lot of times down there will basically put a bunch of people inside and leave the outside single-covered or do things to take him away, top him with a safety, etc.Ā But heās definitely been involved in the plan. Coverage has taken the quarterback away from him sometimes. But Vernon is a guy we want active in the red zone. And [we] actively work to do that.
I got to do a better job of getting him the football.
"
This approach has eluded the 49ers offense for much of 2014. Reversing this trend will be a must against Seattle.
Ending with touchdownsāand not Phil Dawson field goalsāis a critical aspect for San Francisco. It's an aspect that has been problematic this season, but it can't afford to be an issue if the 49ers want to contend for a playoff berth.
That berth has Seattle looming in the way.
All statistics, records and accolades courtesy ofĀ Pro-Football-ReferenceĀ andĀ ESPN.comĀ unless otherwise indicated.
Peter Panacy is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Be sure to check out hisĀ entire archiveĀ on 49ers' news, insight and analysis.
Follow himĀ @PeterPanacyĀ on Twitter.
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