The Definitive Guide to Fixing the Oakland Raiders
The Oakland Raiders are a terrible football team right now. They are an ugly 0-4, and the dreadful start cost head coach Dennis Allen his job. The team has the worst facilities in the NFL, and the roster needs a lot of work.
The Raiders need help, but no one is going to hand them a new stadium, talented players or smart coaches. One move—like bringing back Jon Gruden—isn’t going to reverse the team’s fortunes.
To get back on track, the Raiders need an intelligent, multi-staged plan. Without one, the Raiders are going to continue to churn through head coaches as opposing offenses have their defense this season.
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Before they can create a plan, the Raiders need to evaluate their situation. What seems to be the problem with this franchise?
Oakland’s talent and coaching are an issue, but perhaps an even bigger problem is the perception of the team. The Raiders are like a bumbling drunk uncle that you advise your kids stay away from at family gatherings.
Owner Mark Davis looks like a cross between Lloyd Christmas and Harry Dunne from Dumb and Dumber. His handpicked general manager Reggie McKenzie sounds like he went to the George W. Bush School of Public Speaking. It’s grossly unfair to both men, but it doesn’t change the fact that perception can be a real hindrance to a team’s progress.
The team is trying to attract a top head coach and talent in free agency, and it needs public support for a new stadium. The fact that the Raiders are losing and they look like a circus in the process is only making them more of a joke—even if that’s not the reality.
Davis isn’t going to turn into Tom Cruise even with a new hairdo, and McKenzie doesn’t have the time to become John F. Kennedy. If Davis were to fire McKenzie at the end of the season, it solves one perception issue but reinforces the other.
The only thing that is going to change perceptions is winning, but how does a team go about winning games when they can’t attract talented coaches or players?
Stick with McKenzie
In the aftermath of the team’s decision to fire Allen, fans and media alike have redirected their wrath at McKenzie. Some of the criticism he deserves, but McKenzie isn’t hiding from it or making excuses.
“A lot of it rides on me. I brought Dennis in to win championships here and to win, period,” McKenzie said of the 0-4 start via Raiders.com. “That did not materialize. The way this season began through these first four games, we had to make a change. That falls on me.”
The NFL is a results-based business, and it’s very easy to fall into the trap of only judging the results. Some of McKenzie’s moves have been poor so far, but his process has been much better. It’s also far too early to evaluate McKenzie’s performance when only one of the players he drafted in the first three rounds is in their third season.
No matter how much money Davis is willing to throw at the problem, the Raiders can’t attract a superstar head coach that can also take over football operations unless Gruden feels like the time is right to come back. If that doesn’t materialize, Davis needs to decide quickly if he can find a better general manager than McKenzie.
Although not a reason to keep a bad general manager, Davis has to consider if any top-level football executive wants to work for him if he decides to fire McKenzie after three seasons. In reality, the Raiders would only be able to attract candidates who wouldn’t be able to get the job anywhere else in the league.
Constant turnover has been part of the problem and not the solution.
There is no doubt McKenzie has made mistakes, but three years is not enough time to judge a general manager—especially not one that was facing a historic rebuild like the Raiders. That’s not an excuse for McKenzie; it’s just too early to evaluate his job performance. Nearly half of his top draft picks have only four games of experience.
It’s also important not to judge McKenzie for simply having bad luck. There are plenty of things outside a general manager’s control. One of those things is coaching, so it will be interesting to see how the Raiders respond to interim head coach Tony Sparano over the final 12 games.
Oakland’s 2013 first-round pick D.J. Hayden hasn’t been able to stay healthy, but that’s not something McKenzie could have predicted. Hayden’s freak injury in college hasn’t cost him a single regular-season game, so his injuries are the result of bad luck more than McKenzie taking unnecessary risks.
In hindsight, the Raiders could have drafted a stud defensive tackle instead of Hayden. Many will point to Star Lotulelei, who had a medical red flag due to a condition with very low risk of reoccurrence just like Hayden. Easy to say in hindsight the Raiders should have done something else, but the decision to draft Hayden was a sound one even if not the result.
Conventional wisdom suggests draft picks need a full three years to develop—Hayden still has time to contribute. That’s especially true at cornerback, where the transition from college to the pros can be difficult. Hayden is technically just four games into his second season and really hasn’t had a chance to prove himself.
| Tony Bergstrom | OG | 2012 | 3 | 95 | 9/36 |
| D.J. Hayden | CB | 2013 | 1 | 12 | 8/20 |
| Menelik Watson | OT | 2013 | 2 | 42 | 9/20 |
| Sio Moore | LB | 2013 | 3 | 66 | 17/20 |
| Khalil Mack | LB | 2014 | 1 | 5 | 4/4 |
| Derek Carr | QB | 2014 | 2 | 36 | 4/4 |
| Gabe Jackson | OG | 2014 | 3 | 81 | 4/4 |
McKenzie’s other picks in the first three rounds since getting hired include linebacker Khalil Mack, quarterback Derek Carr, left guard Gabe Jackson, linebacker Sio Moore, offensive tackle Menelik Watson and offensive guard Tony Bergstrom. It’s probably safe to say Bergstrom is a bust, but beyond that, the jury is still out on the other players, with the Watson pick looking like the worst so far.
Most of McKenzie’s top draft picks have shown some promise, but no general manager is going to be perfect. Building through the draft is likely the only way the Raiders are going to find the star players they need.
The best free agents are also going to avoid Oakland, but even if they were interested, the Raiders would have to overpay for them. The Raiders may have to overpay a couple impact players just to jump star a rebuild that has been slow to get off the ground. Teams don’t lose players they really want to keep, so overpaying for young talent in free agency is usually a shortsighted plan.
Most of the critics of McKenzie point to his handling of the quarterback situation and his work in free agency. These decisions are much easier to evaluate on a year-to-year basis than draft picks. Trading quarterback Carson Palmer was clearly a mistake, but only because he would have bought the regime more time. Palmer wasn’t part of the long-term plan in Oakland just as he isn’t part of the long-term plan in Arizona.
Like it or not, McKenzie was hired to win championships and not just six games. Sometimes it has to get worse before it gets better.
The Raiders languished for a year with Terrelle Pryor, Matt Flynn and Matt McGloin at quarterback before drafting Carr last May. The trade for Matt Schaub may have been a bad idea, but it’s not like there were many good options available. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter because he doesn’t need to play. The money spent on his contract is also moot since the Raiders probably weren’t going to spend it on anyone else.
| Donald Penn | +4.2 | +4.9 | $4.8M (2 years) | $0 |
| Jared Veldheer | -5.5 | +1.0 | $7.0M (5 years) | $8.0M |
| Justin Tuck | +12.6 | +6.7 | $5.0M (2 years) | $0 |
| Lamarr Houston | +7.4 | -0.1 | $7.0M (5 Years) | $4.0M |
Some will point at left tackle Jared Veldheer and defensive end Lamarr Houston leaving in free agency as two poor decisions by McKenzie, but he actually looks smart for letting them go. The two players he signed to replace them have been better and cheaper. Donald Penn has been solid at left tackle, and Justin Tuck has at least been as good as Houston.
“Well first of all, yes I do believe what we put together this offseason was a roster that could win,” McKenzie said via Raiders.com. “I’m not going to get into all the particulars of why it didn’t work for Dennis, but the bottom line is it didn’t work, for whatever reason. Not only the 0-4 start, but our play, it did not represent what we were capable of and that’s the bottom line.”
Maybe McKenzie thought the Raiders could compete with the current talent level. There are 12 games left to find that out, but he knew not every free agent he signed was going to be a hit. If he did, McKenzie would have signed them to contracts that tied them to the franchise beyond this season.
McKenzie has cleaned up the cap situation to the point where the Raiders will have roughly $56 million in cap space in 2015 according to overthecap.com. The Raiders can create more cap space by releasing many of the veteran free agents they signed this offseason who aren't performing—and Schaub.
Part of cleaning up the cap meant chopping the roster down to nothing. The Raiders were overpaying the likes of Stanford Routt, Kamerion Wimbley, Tommy Kelly, Richard Seymour and Palmer in 2011, so McKenzie really had no choice.
Davis should think hard before firing an executive who came highly recommended by many smart football people when he was hired. McKenzie has notable hits and misses, but his missing is part of the job and it’s too early to evaluate all of his draft picks.
Find a Renegade Head Coach
With a plethora of cap space and another full deck of top draft choices, the Raiders can get to work shoring up certain areas of the roster. That should help whoever becomes the head coach of the Raiders, but there are more problems than the team can solve in one offseason.
In the absence of being able to get a top-level candidate to take the job, the Raiders need to look for a coach who isn’t afraid to be different. The Raiders need a coach who is willing to use every advantage that comes his way.
Teams that lack talent need all the help they can get, and being overly conservative isn’t going to help them win games. For example, the Raiders punted on 4th-and-1 from their own 45 against the Dolphins last Sunday with a 7-3 lead. According to The New York Times 4th Down Bot, the Raiders should have gone for it because the average odds of success on 4th-and-1 in that situation are about 65 percent.
The New York Times has created a methodology about when to go for it on fourth down, and it’s a lot more than NFL coaches currently do. It’s time to find a coach that has the guts to use data to his advantage and stop leaving points on the field.
A decision to go for it can backfire, but teams have a lot more data to support their decisions now. The game is changing and fans are more willing to accept something new if there is hard data to back it up. The only reason coaches continue to be conservative on fourth down is that they're afraid.
NFL head coaches have a short shelf life as it is, so it’s bizarre that they wouldn’t want to maximize their odds of success. The Raiders need a coach who isn’t afraid to be different and do the things necessary to win games.
Whomever the Raiders find to coach probably isn’t going to be a big name or a football genius. It’s not as if the Raiders have had much success with hotshot coordinators since Gruden anyway.
The Raiders do need someone to bring back the swagger they haven't had since Gruden and Hue Jackson. A little bit of bravado never hurt anyone.
That may or may not be McKenzie’s style, but that’s exactly why it’s necessary. Sparano has some of the right qualities, but absent a huge turnaround, the Raiders need a complete coaching overhaul.
Fix the Roster
After figuring out what to do with the front office and at head coach, the Raiders need to go about fixing their roster. Offensively, the Raiders lack top players at the skill positions.
Finding a running back in the draft or in free agency who can contribute right away isn’t usually difficult. C.J. Spiller, Ryan Mathews and DeMarco Murray will all be free agents in 2015. At least one of the three will probably hit free agency, but Georgia running back Todd Gurley could also be a consideration.
The more difficult position to address will be wide receiver. Oakland desperately needs a No. 1 wide receiver to pair with their collection of No. 2 and No. 3 types, and rookies often take time to develop. Drafting a wide receiver early wouldn’t be a bad idea, but a free agent or two will also be necessary.
The biggest problem in free agency will be lack of options. Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas are the only two legit No. 1 wide receivers with expiring contract, and they will both get new deals or the franchise tag before they have a chance to hit the market. The draft is probably Oakland’s best option to find he type of player they need at the position.
The Raiders could tinker with the offensive line, especially right tackle, but they otherwise seem to have a nice core. A year of experience, a running game and a No. 1 receiver should give Carr the best chance to have NFL success.
Defensively, the Raiders need a lot of work, but they can build around Mack. Among the biggest needs is a presence up the middle and another pass-rusher.
Enter defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, who will be looking for a mega-deal this offseason after his contract voids, and the Raiders will likely have the most cap space in the league. Suh would give the Raiders exactly what they need and help restore the team’s bad-boy image.
Another impact player the Raiders could target is outside linebacker Brian Orakpo, who is playing on the franchise tag this season in Washington and would be a great player to pair with Mack. The Raiders have more than enough salary-cap space to sign two or three impact players to try to build something special on defense.
It will be a little more difficult to find quality help in the secondary. Targeting safeties and cornerbacks in the draft as well as another year of signing savvy veterans is likely going to be the smartest course of action. Hayden’s 2014 season will obviously help the Raiders determine how much and how soon they need to address the position in 2015.
Unlike last offseason when the Raiders only signed older veterans, the Raiders should focus on adding a few key players who are still in their primes. They may have to overpay a couple players to get them to come to Oakland, but a couple calculated risks is tolerable.
Add a few key pieces, have another solid draft and find a head coach with guts, and the Raiders could be on the path to respectability once again. Considering the resources the Raiders will have in 2015, it may not be as hard as it seems.
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