Houston Texans "A Big Time Player in 2012" Says Kerry Byrne

Kerry J. Byrne is loud, opinionated, overweight, foul-mouthed and more than a little bit annoying.

I think that's why I like him so much.

The self-proclaimed Potentate of Pigskin, Byrne is the founder of ColdHardFootballFacts.com and partner in FootballNation.com. He may be only as tall as an Oompa Loompa, but Byrne is never short on stats or insight when it comes to football.

I've asked him to talk about the AFC South, if for no other reason than I worry that if we don't keep him occupied, we'll lose him to a fatal combination of alcohol and pork poisoning.

Here is Part I of his data-rich ramblings:

BR: The AFC South is in transition away from the dominance of Manning and the Colts and into a more competitive future. Who has the inside track? Are any of the teams well positioned for a nice run of division titles?

KB: I really like the place that Houston is in right now. They were the total package in 2011—in fact, No. 1 across the board in our Quality Stats Power Rankings. We can only wonder what would have happened if Matt Schaub had stayed healthy.

A healthy Houston would have been the best team in the conference in 2011 and a legit Super Bowl threat—certainly good enough to beat the Giants. They did not have the weaknesses on pass defense, for example, that the Giants were able to exploit in wins over the powerhouse Packers and Patriots.

The defense was young, fast and aggressive at all levels. They nailed their 2011 draft defensively and actually persevered in the wake of the Mario Williams injury. In fact, the defense actually improved, as we reported here this week, after Williams went down.

The ground game was very strong (4.5 yards per attempt). The passing attack was strong and stayed fairly efficient even after the carnage at QB.

You can’t say enough about the job Wade Phillips did as Houston’s DC. He was the single most important offseason signing of 2011 in the omniscient eyes of the Cold, Hard Football Facts. Houston had a brutally inept defense throughout its history and even in 2010. It was one of the best defenses in football in 2011. He wrote about this turnaround in great detail midway through the season on SI.com.

Two numbers do a great job of summing up those improvements in the space of a single season: the 2010 Texans surrendered 376.9 yards per game (30th) and a 100.5 Defensive Passer Rating (32nd)—one of the 10 worst pass defenses in history!

The 2011 team surrendered 285.7 yards per game (2nd) and a 69.0 Defensive Passer Rating (2nd). Life changes fast in the Not For Long League – but Houston’s improvements were dramatic and historic even by the standards of the NFL.

Given the chaos elsewhere in the division, Houston looks well poised to be a big-time player in 2012.

BR: The biggest issue facing the South is the development of the three young QBs—Gabbert, Locker and Luck. What are your thoughts on them and Schaub as well?

KB: Gabbert was a huge disappointment in Jacksonville, even by the lowly standards of rookie QBs. Remember, even Peyton Manning struggled with 28 INT as a rookie. But at least he got the ball downfield, and we knew then that he would be legit if he could limit the mistakes.

Gabbert was inaccurate (50.8) and incapable of making plays with his arm. He averaged a brutal 5.36 yards every time he threw a pass. Awful. For a little perspective, the Carolina Panthers last season averaged 5.41 yards every time they ran the ball.

Perhaps a lot of that lack of production can be attributed to the inglorious end of the Jack Del Rio Era. He never seemed to grasp the fact that NFL games are won by efficient passing, not pounding the ball on the ground.

We’ll see if things get better under Mike Mularkey, but the first round of evidence for Gabbert in 2011 was not encouraging. The team certainly appeared to make a run at Tim Tebow. So they do not seem satisfied with their QB situation.

We really didn’t get a good look at Jake Locker. And when we did he was also not particularly accurate (51.5 percent)—the same problem that plagued him in college. But we always look at TD-INT ratio when measuring QBs. It’s one of the most important single measures of success in a QB.

And Locker, in his limited time, threw four TD without a single pick. So that’s a very encouraging early sign, especially considering interceptions haunt young QBs like crazy ex-girlfriends. Sooner or later you gotta shake ‘em.

As for Andrew Luck—well, who knows? We’re always wary of guys slapped with the “can’t miss” label. In fact, as we all know, there is no such thing. They can miss and sometimes do miss. He was obviously an incredible talent in college. But we won’t know about the NFL until we see it.

With all that said, you have feel a little envious of the position that the Colts find themselves given the situation: they have a once-in-a-franchise-history opportunity to coolly segue from a Hall of Fame quarterback to a much younger model with Hall of Fame potential.

If it plays out the way Colts fans hope, you’re talking a single painful blip of a season—maybe two—as the interregnum between rulers. Some teams wander many years—or in the case of the Bears, many decades—searching for a legit franchise quarterback. Few teams ever have this opportunity.