AJ Smith: Is 2011 a Make or Break Season for the San Diego Chargers GM?

The Chargers are going into the 2011 season looking up in the AFC West for the first time in four years. Their 9-7 record in 2010 was not enough to have them taking the division or even making the playoffs, as the rising Chiefs usurped their role as the best NFL team west of the Mississippi.

Even in years previous to this, when the Chargers were highly rated Super Bowl contenders, had one of the most talented rosters in all the league and went 14-2 in 2006, they still never lived up to their potential. Coaches have been fired. Players have been released. Threats of moving to a new city have come and gone. But in it all there has seemed to be one name that has escaped much ridicule and always come out unscathed: AJ Smith.

Smith has been with the organization for many years, but took his current position as GM in April of 2003. His involvement in that year's draft was minimal, but by 2004 he had established himself as a marquee executive with one single trade that would forever alter the Chargers, the league and record books.

After Eli Manning made it clear he would not play for San Diego if drafted No. 1 by them in 2004, Smith drafted him anyway. Less than an hour later he would trade Manning to the Giants for a third-round pick in that draft, a first-round pick in 2005 and a fifth-round pick in 2005, as well as the Giants first-round pick in 2004, Philip Rivers.

The next years' third-round pick was used to get Nate Kaeding, and the first-rounder in 2005 got them Shawn Merriman. Manning's move saw him win a Super Bowl in one of the most ferried contests in sports history. It had seemed that all parties involved came out on top.

Smith has thus far been at the helm for eight Charger drafts. He has picked up some of the biggest names on the roster of the past several years and done so through what many say is in innate ability for finding hidden talent. Players include:

2005: Luis Castillo (Rd. 1), Vincent Jackson (Rd. 2), Darren Sproles (Rd. 4)

2006: Antonio Cromartie (Rd. 1), Marcus McNeil (Rd. 2), Tim Dobbins and Jeromey Clary (Rd. 5)

2007: Eric Weddle (Rd. 2), Legedu Naanee (Rd. 5), Brandon Siler (Rd. 7)

2008: Jacob Hester (Rd. 3 for a '08 5th-rounder and '09 2nd-rounder)

2010: Ryan Matthews (Rd. 1)

This is quite an impressive resume that many GM's would kill to have, but if you notice the number of stars seem to be dwindling year by year. Maybe it is a bit presumptuous to suggest that the players from '09 and '10 were busts without proper time to develop, but at the same time it could also be argued that his early drafts saw instant talent in players like Merriman and Kaeding.

Hester and Matthews show promise, but he also gave up a bit to get the former LSU back and Matthews was a somewhat obvious pick. Smith's acclaim as one of the best talent analysts in the league has always been in rooted in his ability to find late round gems. Recently that has just not happened.

This all leads back to the question of was what really happened in in 2004 replicable through his intuition, or did he just get very lucky? In other words, will lightning strike twice?

You could even argue that the Chargers still came out short in that deal. Even though Rivers is the obvious choice at quarterback now, Manning still has that ring on his finger, something Rivers and Smith have never even smelt.

But a GM's job does not end in April, he must also be good at retaining the talent he has. Last season was the first time fans and the media really began to openly criticize Smith's practices. All of it happened over the holdout of Vincent Jackson.

In 2009, Jackson had exploded on to the scene with a career year, making 68 catches for 1167 yards and nine touchdowns. In the off season he expressed that he wanted a long-term deal with the team that many fans felt he had earned.

Smith would not budge on his stance that Jackson's contract was sufficient and no negotiations over further payment would take place. This led to Jackson holding out the first 10 weeks of the season. Once he got back he also had to serve a three game ban for substance abuse imposed by the league and ultimately was a non-factor in the season.

Many believe had he been there for the full 13 games he was allowed to play, his red-zone and deep threat presence would have been enough to help them steal an extra win or two and get them into the playoffs.

Norv Turner has been on the hot seat for a few seasons for his lack of reputation in the playoffs. This year will probably be his last if he is not able to get them deep into January. But the blame should not stop at the coach.

Smith has been out-drafted the past few seasons by divisional rivals. The Raiders' tandem of Michael Bush and Darren McFadden is one of the best in the game. The Chiefs selection of Javier Arenas, Eric Berry, and Dexter McCluster is unlike any seen in recent years. And the gutsy call of going Tim Tebow in the first round looks like it could pay off for Denver.

Cory Liguet is not a name that exactly jumps off the paper to most people, but he falls perfectly in line with Smith's tendencies. But Smith will not save face with a first round pick. If Vincent Brown and Jordan Todman can show some promise by season's end, then perhaps Smith has found the golden touch again.

If not, it may be time for the Chargers to go a different direction and finally take care of the issue that has been plaguing the team all along.