UFC 130 Fight Card: Frank Mir vs. Roy Nelson, Early Head-To-Toe Breakdown

UFC 130 is less than three weeks away and it's shaping up to be an excellent card. Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard are set to meet for a third time after their last fight ended in a controversial draw. Fan Favorites Quinton Rampage Jackson and Matt Hamill will square off. And in the heavyweight division Roy Nelson and Frank Mir will battle it out, both trying to make their way to the top of the heavyweight ladder.

This is an important fight for both fighters because they need the win to stay relevant. Both have come up short against the elite of the heavyweight division (Mir against Lesnar and Carwin, Nelson against Dos Santos) and a loss here could drop them to gatekeeper status.

Many fight fans have been flummoxed trying to pick a winner in this fight, given that the two men have such similar skill sets. Let's take a look at each element of this fight individually and see if either fighter can be given a discernible advantage, overall.

Experience

Admittedly, I don't think experience will play a huge role in this fight. Both men are seasoned veterans and have been in there with some of the best.

That being said, if experience does end up being a factor, I think it will favor Frank Mir.

Mir has had more fights than Nelson in the UFC and has faced a more consistent level of competition over the years.

Not only has Mir faced more top level competition, he has had more success against top level competition.

Edge: Frank Mir

Chin

The ability to take a punch could play a huge role in this fight as both men have big power in their hands. Both have proven time and time again that they can change the course of a fight with one big shot.

However, Mir will need to be more careful standing than Nelson.

Frank has lost five times in his career and all of those losses are by knock out. He's not a fighter you could describe as having a glass jaw, but he is definitely susceptible to the knockout.

Nelson, on the other hand, has proven that he can eat a lot of punches and keeping plodding forward. Many fight fans were astounded at the amount of punishment he took from Junior Dos Santos at UFC 117 without being stopped. He is the only fighter in the UFC to make it through all three rounds with Junior, so far.

Edge: Nelson

Striking Technique

Both guys are excellent strikers, but I believe Frank Mir enjoys an advantage, technique-wise.

Roy Nelson tends to eat punches in order to land his own, but he gets away with it because his punches are the kind that end fights.

Mir tends to be more evasive on the feet. He's gotten very good at utilizing his footwork and head movement to stay out of striking range and dodge punches.

Mir is much lighter on his feet than Nelson and I expect him to try and use that advantage in this fight.

I also feel like Mir is a more fluid striker and better at putting together combinations.

Edge: Frank Mir

Striking Power

Whatever advantage Roy might give up in terms of striking technique, he makes up for in power. Nelson has huge power in his hands. His last nine wins coming by way of TKO or KO is a testimonial to that.

Mir is going to have to be very careful exchanging with Nelson and make sure he doesn't get too comfortable because if one of those big bombs lands it could end the fight instantly.

Frank also has good power in his hands, but they're not as powerful as Nelson's. Mir has shown us that he can knock guys down standing, but he usually has to finish with some ground and pound, or a submission. Roy has the kind of power that can put a guy to sleep immediately.

Edge: Nelson

Submissions

Before I get into the submission and grappling aspects of this fight (grappling will be the next slide), I'd like to point out that I am aware that these two men have already competed in a grappling competition and Nelson won. However, it was a very long time ago (long enough ago that Nelson didn't even have a guy) and Mir was actually winning pretty decisively before he gassed. I'll be basing my analysis of this stuff on more current events.

Now, as far as submissions go, I think Mir has the better all around game.

Nelson started off his MMA career with an impressive slew of submission victories, winning five of his first six fights by way of submission. Since then, however, he has not won a single fight by submission and has been winning more by KO and TKO.

Mir has been winning more consistently by submission throughout his career. What's also notable about Mir's jiu-jitsu game is that he pulls off submissions from the top and bottom, where as Roy has only proven himself to be effective from the top. Mir also shown that he has good leg locks, an element of the submission game we haven't seen at all from Nelson.

Overall, it seems like Mir has the more well-rounded submissions game.

Edge: Frank Mir

Grappling

It's rare that you see a fighter with a gut like Nelson's. Many people think that his gut is disadvantage and in a lot of ways it is. His quickness and cardio certainly don't benefit from the gut, but that spare tire does have its advantages.

Roy's gut benefits him, to an extent, when it comes to grappling. In the clinch and especially from top position on the ground, his extra weight wears on his opponent. All that weight centered in one area gives Nelson a really solid base and makes him hard to move, especially if he's on top of you. He showed in his time on the Ultimate fighter how hard it is to out from under him. Kimbo Slice, who was probably stronger than Nelson, could not get out from under him after Nelson trapped him in a top position crucifix.

Frank is a good grappler, but he has showed weakness in his clinch game and he's never had particularly dominant takedowns.

I feel like grappling between these two could end up being a stalemate, but if one of them is able to get it to the ground, I think it will be Nelson.

Edge: Roy Nelson

Cardio

Neither man has particularly great cardio. Most of the time, neither of them needs it. Less than half of Nelson's fights have gone to decision and Frank Mir has only been to a decision twice in his career.

Cardio might not be a factor in this fight, but if I had to glean which fighter has the better cardio I would go with Mir. It's kind of a no-brainer. Given Nelson's physique, most of the heavyweight division probably has a cardio advantage over him.

I will give Nelson that his cardio is much better than you would expect from a man of his stature, but it's still nowhere near the level it could be if he were to get in better shape.

In his last fight, Nelson looked exhausted at the end of his fight with Junior Dos Santos and it wasn't an extremely fast paced fight.

In his last fight, Mir went nearly three rounds with Mirko Cro Cop and looked pretty fresh in the third round.

Edge: Frank Mir

Heart

Will to win is something a fighter must have.

Frank Mir is not the type to give up, but I don't think he possesses the same kind of heart that Nelson does.

Against Junior Dos Santos, Roy turned in a gutsy performance, sticking in there until the final bell trying to land a big bomb and end the fight. I have never seen Frank Mir show that kind of guts or determination in a fight.

Edge: Roy Nelson

Conclusion

This should be a very close fight. On paper, it's pretty much dead even.

However, I think Frank Mir can squeak out a decision here. Look for him to use his footwork to circle Nelson and avoid getting pressed up against the cage. Frank will keep this standing and use his superior boxing to out-point Nelson. I would like to think he could finish it standing but, if Junior Dos Santos couldn't do it, I doubt Frank will be able to.

Don't count Nelson out, though. One big punch could win him the fight and if he can get Frank to the ground I think he might be able to control Frank from the top.

Winner: Frank Mir by Unanimous Decision