The NFL Picks Column: Wild Card Edition

Sean CroweJan 3, 2008

Apparently, I've graduated from "Scribe" to "Analyst" here at Bleacher Report. In celebration, I got stupid-drunk and wrote this wonderful picks column!

In case you missed it, I've been pretty busy this week.

I tried to provide hope to the hopeless by telling everyone why their teams were going to win this weekend, in my first two-part Bleacher Report column (Part 1: NFL-New_York_Giants-Washington_Redskins-Tampa_Bay_Buccaneers-Playing_the_NFC_Wildcard_Round_Why_Your_Favorite_Team_Will_Win_This_Weekend-020108">NFC; Part 2: Steelers-Tennessee_Titans-Jacksonville_Jaguars-AFC_Wild_Card_Round_Why_Your_Favorite_Team_Will_Win-030108">AFC).

Now that I'm done shilling my own work, here's a couple of quick NFL news items before I get to the picks...

- It's good to see the voters getting the postseason NFL awards correct for a change. Adrian Peterson winning Offensive Rookie of the Year, with Joe Thomas in second, was right on the money.

And Bill Belichick winning Coach of the Year was surprising considering how many people he ticked off, but dead right.

How can you go 16-0 and not win Coach of the Year?

- Cam Cameron, we hardly knew ye. I'm just glad Bill Parcells stayed away from the New England front office and coaching staff.

I still think Maurice Carthon is going to be the next head coach of the Dolphins.

- Brian Billick needed to go. The Ravens had enough talent to compete in this NFL, but they just fell apart. They were an undisciplined, underachieving team that after almost a decade under the same head coach really, really needed a change.

It's amazing Billick never found a quarterback during his entire tenure in Baltimore.

You have to wonder if part of the problem was the offense...

- I'm wondering if Mike Nolan and Alex Smith can coexist next season.

You can't question a guy's manhood and commitment to his team...then expect him to be the starting QB and team leader the next season.

Since the Niners brought Nolan back (granted, in a head-coach-only capacity), you have to wonder if their commitment to Smith is still what it was before the 2007 season.

- Count me among the people rooting for Emmitt Thomas to get the full-time head coaching job in Atlanta.

Loyalty is important. Emmitt Thomas stayed and worked through an absolute mess. He got a team full of disgruntled players to play their guts out.

For that alone, he deserves a shot at the head coaching job.

If Thomas doesn't get the gig in Atlanta, there are a couple of teams that I'm sure would LOVE to have him as offensive coordinator (the Chiefs and the 49ers, to start).

Anyway, enough rambling. On with the picks...

Saturday, 1/5 4:30 ET: Seattle (-3) vs. Washington

I've made no secret about the fact that I'm unimpressed with Seattle this season. To me, they're the best team in a mediocre-to-pathetic division.

I don't think the Hawks can run the ball against the Washington defense...and I don't think they can win without running the ball.

Now, I'm a little leery of the Joe Gibbs 2.0 Era coming back to bite the Redskins (as it did in the Buffalo game earlier this season), but I just can't go against them while they're on this roll.

They're a team of destiny.

At least until next week.

Prediction: Washington wins by 3

TOP NEWS

Saturday, 1/5 8:00 ET: Jacksonville (-2.5) at Pittsburgh

I've been riding Pittsburgh all season. I'm not going to stop now.

Sure, they're banged up. Yes, they lost to Jacksonville earlier this season. True, Jacksonville is on a roll and looks custom-built to win in the playoffs.

But nobody wins playoff games in Pittsburgh except the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Until the AFC Championship game, anyway.

Prediction: Steelers win by 7

Sunday, 1/6 1:00 ET: Tampa Bay (-3) vs. NY Giants

Do not pick Eli Manning in a playoff game.

Tampa Bay hasn't played well in almost a month. Their offense has GOT to be rusty. Jeff Garcia has played so little over the last few weeks that he was actually allowed to collect unemployment.

Do not pick Eli Manning in a playoff game.

The Giants seem like a playoff-ready team—the NFC version of Jacksonville. They can run the ball effectively, they can stop the run, and they can get to any quarterback in the league with that ridiculously good pass rush.

Do not pick Eli Manning in a playoff game.

Tampa Bay is just flat-out unimpressive. They won a division that was, to be kind, experiencing a down year. I'm not even sure they really deserve to be here at all.

Do not pick Eli....oh hell.

Prediction: Giants (and Eli Manning) by 10

Sunday, 1/6 4:30 ET: San Diego (-10) vs. Tennessee

LT might be the best player in the NFL (non-quarterback division, anyway). He can run against almost anyone. He's a one-man yardage machine.

What's more, the San Diego defense is the most opportunistic in the AFC. They have everything you want in a playoff D:

1) They can create turnovers.
2) They can get after the quarterback.
3) They're physical.
4) For the most part, they can stop the run.

That said, the Titans are a nightmare matchup for the Chargers.

Tennessee can stop the run, putting the game in (gulp) Philip Rivers' hands.

The Titans are as physical, if not more physical, than the Bolts.

The Titans can run the ball against almost any defensive front.

Kerry Collins or Vince Young—I'm not sure it matters. Neither guy is good enough or bad enough to make all that much of a difference.

On paper, the Chargers are better.

But can you really bet on Norv Turner to beat a Jeff Fisher team?

I can't.

Prediction: Titans win by 3, in overtime