AFC Wild Card Round: Why Your Favorite Team Will Win

We already told you why your NFL-New_York_Giants-Washington_Redskins-Tampa_Bay_Buccaneers-Playing_the_NFC_Wildcard_Round_Why_Your_Favorite_Team_Will_Win_This_Weekend-020108">favorite NFC team was going to win this weekend, so now it's time to take a look at the AFC.

As we said in the NFC column, this is not a prediction column. 

This is a look at how your favorite team can/will win this weekend's playoff game. 

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers

Why Jacksonville will win…

1. They’re the most physical team in the playoffs.

For a Florida team, Jacksonville sure is physical.  Unlike most teams from the sunshine state, they appear built to function in any weather.

They might even be better in colder, sloppier weather.  

2. They can run the ball.

Fred Taylor has rediscovered his youth.  He’s been the best running back this side of LT since mid-season. 

Maurice Jones-Drew might be small, but he packs a heck of a punch.  Just ask Shawne Merriman.

Together they make up the best running game in the AFC. 

3. They don’t turn the ball over.

David Garrard threw three interceptions the entire season.  That’s pretty remarkable for a guy who started all 16 games.

Three interceptions is a bad quarter for Eli Manning.

4. They caught the right team at the right time.

The Steelers have been decimated by injuries over the last couple of weeks—the most significant being Willie Parker, who will miss the entire playoffs with a broken leg. 

Ben Roethlisberger has been dealing with injuries of his own.  He missed the last week of the season to heal, but there’s no telling exactly where he is physically heading into this weekend.

The Jaguars might have caught the Steelers at their most vulnerable.

Why Pittsburgh will win…

1. Ben Roethlisberger wins big games.

Ever since he was a rookie, Roethlisberger has known how to win big games.  He’s a Super Bowl-winning QB, which puts him in a group that includes Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, and Trent Dilfer.

OK, forget Trent Dilfer.  You get the point.

Right now Big Ben is just south of Peyton Manning and Tom Brady—solidly leading the second tier of NFL quarterbacks. 

Playoff games come down to coaching and QB play.  And Big Ben over David Garrard is a no-brainer.

2. Najeh Davenport ain’t that bad.

Najeh Davenport is more Jerome Bettis than Willie Parker, but that might be just what the Steelers need. 

We’ve already talked about how physical the Jaguars are, but Davenport gives the Steelers a physical running game that can match the physicality of the Jaguars defense.

Davenport is the best short yardage running back in the NFL.  He can move the pile. 

Plus, Brett Favre loves him.

3. Their defense is still pretty good.

Even after a late season swoon, the Steelers’ defense was the #1 rated defense in the NFL.  

In Troy Polamalu and James Harrison, they sport two of the best defensive playmakers in football. 

Don’t be confused by the way they ended the season.  The Steelers’ defense can still get the job done.

4. Do you REALLY trust David Garrard?

He couldn’t beat the Colts, his only real test of the season. 

He’s never had to carry an offense to a playoff victory.

He’s a “game manager”—which is NFL speak for “might not be able to win the game for us, but he won’t lose it either.”

If it comes down to Big Ben making a play or David Garrard, who are you betting the house on? 

Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers

Why Tennessee will win…

1. The Titans should have won the first match-up.

If 160 things didn’t go right for the Chargers in the 4th quarter, Tennessee would have beaten them in the regular season. 

The Titans remember this game and won’t make the same mistakes again.

2. The Chargers’ run defense is suspect.

When someone runs for 296 yards against your defense, it officially becomes suspect.

Tennessee has a pretty good running game.  With Vince Young at QB (assuming he’s healthy), they will need to rely on the running game. 

If you can push around the Chargers, you can beat the Chargers.

3. The Titans can stop the run.

With Albert Haynesworth

healthy, the Titans’ defense is nearly impossible to run against. 

If the Titans can stop Ladainian Tomlinson, they’ll put the game in Philip Rivers’ incapable hands. 

It’s pretty simple, really.  Stop LT, and you stop the Chargers.

Of course, that’s easier said than done.

4. Head coaching matters.

Jeff Fisher vs. Norv Turner is a mismatch of epic proportions.

We’re talking LSU-vs.-Sister-Hazel’s-All-Girls-Academy-level mismatch.

I mean, can you really pick a Norv Turner team over a Jeff Fisher team? 

Can you?

Why San Diego will win…

1. Ladainian Tomlinson, enough said.

Ladainian Tomlinson is the best running back in the NFL today. 

Give him the ball 25 times and you’re probably in good shape.

Plus, LT is on a mission this season.  He wasn’t happy with how the season ended last year, and he’ll do everything in his power to make sure another team doesn’t get to do the “Lights Out” dance on his home field.

LT on a mission can win a game by himself.

2. Talent wins.

Forget everything else, the Chargers have a huge advantage in the talent department. 

They’re more talented offensively and more talented defensively.  If this game were played on a playground somewhere, they’d destroy the Titans.

They have enough of a talent advantage that they may be able to cancel out the coaching advantage Fisher has over Turner.

Maybe.

3. The Chargers have some serious defensive playmakers.

The Chargers’ defense has been tremendous at forcing turnovers this season. 

Vince Young has been tremendous at turning the ball over this season.

Something has to give.

4. They have to win sometime, right?

A team as talented as the San Diego Chargers has to win a playoff game eventually, right?

LT does not want to go down in history as the most talented player to never go deep into the playoffs. 

Shawn Merriman doesn’t want to go down in history as the steroid user who couldn’t perform in January.

Philip Rivers doesn’t want to go down as the weak link that stopped a talented team from winning in the playoffs.

All that spells extra motivation. 

That might be all it takes to put an extremely talented team over the top this weekend.
 
I'm SeanMC.

http://bostonsportsrants.blogspot.com/