NFC Wild Card Round: Why Your Favorite Team Will Win

This is not a prediction column. 

The NFL Picks Column: Wild Card Edition will be out sometime later this week (probably Friday). 

(Editor's note: Steelers-Tennessee_Titans-Jacksonville_Jaguars-The_NFL_Picks_Column_Wild_Card_Edition-030108">Here's a link)

What I've tried to do here is give you the primary reasons why your favorite team can/should win its playoff game this weekend.

Starting with the NFC (click here for the AFC), here's why your team is going to win this weekend...

Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks

Why Seattle will win...

1. They’re playing at home. 

I’m not a geography major, so I dialed up MapQuest to see exactly how far Seattle is from Washington, DC. 

Turns out, it’s 2764.78 miles and three time zones away. 

Never mind the 12th Man stuff—the jetlag alone is one heck of a home-field advantage. 

The perpetually miserable weather is another plus.

2. Matt Hasselbeck is a pretty good quarterback, for a bald guy. 

Hasselbeck had the quietest 4,000-yard season in NFL history (okay, 3,966-yard season). 

That along with 28 touchdowns and only 12 interceptions say he’s a pretty good QB. 

Throw in a decent group of wide receivers led by former Super Bowl MVP Deion Branch, and you’ve got yourself a damn good playoff passing game. 

If the Hawks win this weekend, Hasselbeck will be the primary reason.

3. They’ve won in the playoffs before.

We already mentioned the Deion Branch factor, but the rest of the Seahawks were a bad group of referees away from winning a Super Bowl of their own a two years ago. 

Just think—had they won that Super Bowl, Bill Cowher might still be coaching in Pittsburgh...and we wouldn't be enjoying his wonderful commentary on CBS every Sunday! 

I hate the Seahawks.

4. Their defense creates turnovers.

The Seahawks are tied for fourth in the league with 20 interceptions.  If you win the +/- in the playoffs, you typically win games. 

The Seahawks are a +10 this season, which is pretty good.

Why Washington will win...

1. They’re the hot team.

Let’s not underestimate the value of being the hot team. 

Teams going into the playoffs on a losing streak are only 15-14.  If you’re feeling good about yourself going into the playoffs, it can only help. 

And nobody feels better about themselves going into the playoffs this year than the Redskins.

2. Todd Collins has morphed into a decent quarterback.

Here are Todd Collins’ inexplicable numbers since taking over midway through Week 14: 

888 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTs, 63.8 completion percentage

Here are Brett Favre’s numbers over those same games:

743 yards, 6 TDs, 5 INTs, 62.5 completion percentage

Clearly Todd Collins has sold his soul to some higher power.  Are you willing to go against that type of mojo?

3. Their running game is on fire.

The Redskins have figured out how to run the ball effectively over the last month. 

Led by Clinton Portis, they sport the hottest running game in the NFC playoffs. 

They should be able to run the ball against the Seahawks, who field the 12th-ranked run defense in the league.

4. Seattle’s defense is the worst statistically in the playoffs.

Seattle comes into the playoffs with the NFL's 15th-ranked D. To be fair, they’re tied for sixth in points allowed.

The way Washington runs their conservative offense plays against Seattle’s strengths.  They can’t stop anyone, but they’re skilled at forcing the clutch turnover. 

So how do they beat a team that runs the ball and doesn’t turn it over? 

They don’t.

5. They’re the best story.

Don’t underestimate the “It’s the best story” factor. 

It worked for the 2001 New England Patriots, the 2002 Tampa Bay Bucs/Oakland Raiders, the 2005 Steelers, and the 2006 Colts. 

And Washington is at least as good as the 2001 Patriots...

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Why Tampa Bay will win...

1. They’re playing at home, and not allowing Giants fans to buy tickets.

Of course, everyone in Tampa Bay is originally from New York, so this might not be the best strategy, but the Bucs aren’t allowing sales of tickets to people outside the Tampa Bay area. 

This should, in theory, ensure a pretty good home-field advantage.

2. Jeff Garcia owns the Giants.

I work with many, many Giants fans.  They all assure me that the QB they’d least like to see in the playoffs is Jeff Garcia. 

I assured them that Jeff Garcia was entirely mediocre, but it didn’t change their minds.

I guess Jeff Garcia is to the Giants as A.J. Feeley is to the Patriots: the average quarterback who plays like Joe Montana when he sees your team on the other sideline.

3. They have the best defense among NFC playoff teams.

The Bucs sport the No. 2 overall defense in the NFL, second only to the Pittsburgh Steelers.  You simply can’t throw the ball against them.

4. Coach Chucky knows how to win.

Jon Gruden is a playoff-tested head coach.  He’s won a Super Bowl, which puts him in a pretty elite group. 

Frankly, Gruden vs. Tom Coughlin is a complete mismatch.  Never underestimate how important a massive disparity between head coaches can be to the outcome of a playoff game. 

Just look at San Diego vs. New England last season.

Why New York will win...

1. If they can keep up with New England, they can certainly keep up with Tampa Bay.

If the same Giants team that showed up last Saturday shows up this weekend, the Bucs are in trouble.  

The Giants haven’t played like that since...the late 80s?

2. Plaxico is finally healthy.

Eli Manning needs a security blanket, and without Jeremy Shockey, Plaxico Burress is the guy.  

His size makes him a mismatch on almost any cornerback. 

Take a look at the second play of the Patriots game.  Eli threw one up to Plaxico even though Ellis Hobbs had pretty decent coverage.  The result: a huge gain and an early momentum-grabber.  

Plaxico’s size was just too much for Hobbs. 

If Burress is healthy, it’s a completely different Giants offense.

3. They have a pretty good running game.

If Tampa Bay’s defense has a weakness, it’s that you can run the ball on them. 

If the Giants’ offense has a strength, it’s that it can run the ball.

Something has to give.

4. They can get after the quarterback better than anyone.

Let’s face it—Jeff Garcia is beat up.  The Giants can beat up the quarterback better than anyone. 

If the Giants can get to Garcia, they can win the game. 

I'm SeanMC.

http://bostonsportsrants.blogspot.com