Three Idiots and a Cloud Of Ash

Three Idiots and a Cloud of Ash

By Tushar “Rototushy” Yadava

You’ve got to hand it to Iceland. They’re the official spoilt child in the sand pit; I can’t play, no one plays. A year after their banks imploded with a ton of Europe’s money in deposits and then held a national referendum to decide not to pay anything back – they’re at it again.

Perhaps tantrums were thrown in the halls of power that the rest of Europe fell over themselves to help Greece, or perhaps the bitter winter just soured the mood; but this; this is a stroke of genius.

Volcanic eruptions? It’s the geological equivalent of a cupcake. You know, where you break wind into your cupped palm and then waft or smother it over a friend’s nose. Strong play, Iceland, strong play. Nothing beats that for a curt riposte to “you lent them money but not me?”

Now if only we could do the same with some of the NFL stories dominating the headlines today. Or even the news in general. Roethlisberger wants to spend his off-seasons raping and pillaging, Pope Benedict wants to spend his papacy making it ok to pardon rape, and Goldman want to convince the world that it’s ok to do that to the financial industry (and consequently the pocketbook of every US taxpayer) – because they were “sophisticated” investors. Isn’t that like saying provocative clothing is asking for it? And then the rains came, and with it, the three day draft. Hope springs eternal, or until the first holdout, whichever comes first.

But what kind of contrarian would I be if I were to opine on the studs and busts in the draft? Telling you Tebow could or could not be a revelation, and Suh will be a monster, or that the teams that landed either Gerhart or Best will be laughing at the ones that took Spiller and Matthews so high; is kind of null and void in my opinion. Telling you a baby is going to fill their diaper with, well –the point being that the true stories are the flurry of veteran player trades that the wake of the draft is creating. With that, here’s the list of 5, the biggest off the radar trade and free agency impacts to fantasy hopefuls for the year ahead.

LaDanian Tomlinson, RB, NYJ

Readers of my very first article on this website can attest that I knew LT was about to go over the cliff. I warned and warned about the dangers of spending a high pick on him, and few listened. I also did the same about Thomas Jones, and was to a lesser extent proved human. However the logic was sound, his YPC average was atrocious, there were two younger, better backs behind him, and I didn’t know Buffalo would be that bad a run D. Throw those games out of the mix and he was horrible, so Rex Ryan rightly let him go. However where Jones was the best in a bad situation, LT is the proverbial hot iron – and he faces Buffalo twice this season.

Undervalued from a poor season behind a horrible line, in a passing team and passing formation most downs, he still sniffed the end-zone 11 times when in the red-zone (Thomas only managed the same in a much better situation). The Jets are exponentially better in every area to help LT succeed this year: the O-Line, a worse QB and heavier run reliance and run formations, a young bruising back to run between the 20s, a decent third down option in McKnight, threats at WR that San Diego couldn’t muster and a faster TE (yes you heard right, I just blew up Antonio Gates).

Our player rankings have LT positioned just barely in the top 100, and at that price, he’s an absolute steal. Others will see Greene and McKnight and be weary, and trust me, it’s a good thing. They didn’t sign LT to run between the 20s, and they didn’t sign him to be a change of pace. They signed him to be one of the greatest backs in history, and to provide assurance in the red-zone to a young QB, who suddenly has Keller, Edwards, Holmes, Brad Smith and Cotchery to consider at the goal line, and throw 15 TDs your way.

Washington Redskins

"What the eyes see and the ears hear, the mind believes." It’s quite possible I might be the only fantasy columnist this season to quote Harry Houdini, but no one else has encapsulated the way I feel about the Redskins this year in so succinct a fashion. The McNabb and Campbell trades are dominating the headlines, the ‘Silverback’ Williams selection, Shanahan, Haslett, the 3-4, Haynesworth, signing Larry Johnson and Willie Parker – all or mostly inconsequential. As far as fantasy football goes – here’s the skinny on what’s relevant, and in my mind, it boils down to three main areas of focus.

McNabb and Shanahan bring with them a unique dimension to the offense. Washington spent four of their six draft picks on linemen and blockers, and the receiver drafted in the seventh (#219) seems more of a return need than a receiving threat. So who does McNabb throw to? Santana Moss? Moss will be 31 this season, and has only had 1000 receiving yards or more three times in his career. Two years ago the Redskins spent heavily in their draft on Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly (both high 2^nd round picks) and neither has been allowed to flourish much since. However both netted 25 receptions last year, and figure to break out under the third year receiver logic. With no other WR threats (I’m not expecting big things out of Roydell Williams or Marques Hagans) – there is a dominant QB just looking to strike up a rapport with either of these guys. Kelly is the 6’4” vertical threat, and Thomas the smaller, volume-type of receiver. McNabb isn’t likely to be swayed by the tale of the tape as he is chemistry, route-running, and ability to be open in the newer offense – but there’s nothing to doubt that a receiver is waiting to break out here.

The next huge nugget of consideration is McNabb’s star-making potential at the tight-end position. L.J. Smith, Brent Celek among others are testament to the fact that McNabb, in a west-coast offense, loves the tight end in the red-zone. Cooley is a dominant tight end that has played in a less than friendly offensive scheme and with a more limited QB since his arrival on the scene from Utah State. And Shanahan like his receiving tight ends some, doesn’t he? Think Shannon Sharpe and more recently, Tony Scheffler. To extend the thought even more – the Redskins Offensive Coordinator is none other than Kyle Shanahan. His last coaching gig? Houston Texans. Their tight end last year? Owen Daniels. You’d be a fool if you didn’t see the signs that could end with Cooley as a top 3 TE this season.

And finally, if Mike and Kyle Shanahan and their previous incarnations in Denver and Houston can teach us anything – it’s that you cannot trust them whatsoever when it comes to the running back position. Shanahan’s last season in Denver was a running joke trying to find the bell-cow back, and this last season in Houston was proof that imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. With Portis, Parker, Johnson and Ryan Torain (more fool you if you leave him out of the mix) to battle between – the smartest thing you can do is to leave well alone. In fact run in the other direction. And a completely new direction again if you end up running towards Seattle. Pete Carroll is cut from the same cloth. Don’t walk, run.

Carson Palmer, QB, CIN

“The old order changeth, yielding place to new” – bet won. I got a Harry Houdini and ‘Morte D’Arthur’ quotation into this article. But in all seriousness, this is my theme for the season, not the quotes, but the changing of the proverbial fantasy guard so to speak. Things are going to be shaken up this year, mark my words.

To prevent this turning into quite the diatribe – I’m going to assume a couple of things outright, and just let them form the basis from which to sell this viewpoint. Carson Palmer will be a top 5 quarterback this season. Let’s assume that Cedric Benson and the unchanged offensive line with Andre Smith as the sixth man or projected incumbent, that was top 5 last year – will remain so this season, and that Bernard Scott will have more of an impact in matters. Let’s also assume that Palmer is still a good, not elite quarterback with all the tools for success. And finally let’s throw it out there that Chad Ochocinco is a credible receiving threat to this day. Now add to this team Antonio Bryant, Matt Jones, Jermaine Gresham and Riley Cooper. Whilst these aren’t all-world talents, they’re certainly threats, and they certainly combine to make for a much better receiving corps than last season. Sprinkle in that this is Andre Caldwell’s third year as a pro and in the system, and its pretty clear that there is a storm brewing in Ohio.

Palmer projects in the eighth round, and that is bound to change this season. Cincinnati have a stranglehold on the division and together with Baltimore, don’t plan on letting a beleaguered Steelers wrest it away from them.

Running Backs

Once again with the Tennyson quote - “The old order changeth, yielding place to new” – and the running back ensemble is another great proving ground for this theory. Tomlinson was a first round pick last season, and is now 8^th round fodder. I wouldn’t be surprised to see less than stellar years from Frank Gore and Steven Jackson either, and new entrants in to the top 10 backs list include Ray Rice who was catapulted by the tools around him and opportunity.

And this season – I see more of the same from unusual sources in Jonathan Stewart, Jamaal Charles, Knowshon Moreno, Beanie Wells, Darren McFadden, and amongst the rookies; Ben Tate and Montario Hardesty. Apart from Oakland and KC – all of these backs are running behind A-grade lines with 1^st round picks and All-Pros blocking for them in spades. KC added the likes of Ryan Lilja (of the Colts) and Casey Wiegman (Broncos) to allow Brian Waters to move back to guard, and drafted one of the highest guard prospects in Asamoah 68^th overall. Oakland added Veldheer and Campbell in the draft to a unit that former lineman and line coach Tom Cable has always gotten consistent run blocking from.

Of all of these – Moreno and Charles will be expensive but prove worthwhile (McDaniels’ offense had the 2^nd most rushing attempts in New England); Tate and Hardesty will be big impact runners, and I’m expecting Tate to challenge for the ROY; and Stewart, McFadden and Wells are the gambles with incredible (1^st round in 2011) upside. All of these backs will project in the 3^rd round or later. If you go WR, WR, or QB, WR and then spend the next five picks on backs – you could do worse with a stable from these horses.

Defenses

Last year I sung the praises of Dom Capers’ ability to transform defenses. My second article extolled the virtue of drafting the Packers D and Lawrence Tynes as your kicker with the last two picks of your draft. Well a year on – and I still believe the last two picks of your draft will score you a top defense and kicker, and suggestions abound. San Francisco, loaded with talent in key defensive positions and already stingy against the run, seems set to create turnovers aplenty with a changing secondary thrown in to the mix. Add the newly signed Ted Ginn and Leroy Vann into the return game and the special teams can be considered special. The Redskins and Broncos have playmakers that seek the ball through fumbles or picks, and are busy installing aggressive 3-4 schemes to generate backfield heat for two of the already top 10 sack defenses in the league. And I have a personal love for Miami as a defense. Sure they won’t return many TDs with Ginn gone, but they have two second year high draft-picked corners, strength at safety, and added Karlos Dansby to their pass rush. This team picked defense in every round bar one in this year’s draft getting younger and deeper in the process. Expect the team that were top 5 in sacks and fumbles forced to finally get stronger in the passing game and improve on their 15 picks.

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