With the draft 1 day away it is now time to write my final mock draft of 2010. All the workouts are in and now it comes down to 3 things, talent, need, and value.
This Mock does not express what I believe is the best pick at a given spot, but what I believe will happen.
1. StL - Sam Bradford - QB - Oklahoma - Each of the past 2 years, the Rams have picked no. 2 overall. In that span the have passed on Matt Ryan and Mark Sanchez. The Rams cannot afford to pass on a feanchise QB again, or else the team will continue to lose without accomplishing anything. The pick comes down to either Clausen or Bradford, anybody else would be stupid. The Rams obviously seem to prefer Bradford.
2. Det - Ndamukong Suh - DT - Nebraska - Matthew Stafford spent most of the second half of 2009 on the sideline with a knee injury. If QB is the most imortant position in the NFL then OT has to be second. No team can afford to have their most important player sidelined with an injury, you need an O-Line to protect your QB, esspecially if that QB is young and highly paid. Logically this pick would be Russell Okung, the best LT in the Draft, but Suh's hype defies logic. Suh is being hyped up so much that there is no way the Lions don't pick him. I do believe that Suh will be a great DT, but the Lions need O-line.
3. Bucs - Gerald McCoy - DT - Oklahoma - Tampa has its franchise QB in place and a solid O-Line, but they can use a lot of help on the D-Line. If Suh is available the Bucs will take him but they should have no problem settling for Gerald McCoy, who some believe is the best DT in the Draft.
4. Skins - Russell Okung - OT - Oklahoma State - The Skinks just put a major investment into Donavan McNabb. Now they need to protect him. Chris Samuels retired this offseason so there is a huge need at OT. Okung is the best tackle in the Draft and should be a major peice in a Redskins resurgence.
5. Chiefs - Brian Bulaga - OT - Iowa -The Chiefs made a very smart move by trading a second round pick for Matt Cassell instead of using the 3rd overall pick last year, but then they stupidly paid the unproven QB a ton of money. Cassell need protection to prove himself to be worth the money, and the Chiefs have basicallt said that they are taking Bulaga.
6. Sea - Trent Williams - OT - Oklahoma - The Seahawks have the luxury of picking twice in round 1. I have been in some arguments about who the Seahawks should pick at no. 6, Eric Berry or Trent Williams. Both fill a major need. Berry is seen as one of the best players in the Draft however, The value of a safety is much less than that of an OT. Thats why OT's always go high in the draft while DB's go later on. I think the Seahawks will follow this philosiphy and take their tackle here.
7. Browns - Eric Berry - S - Tennesse - Like I said before, Berry is seen as one of the best players in this draft. Cleveland has huge needs on D. The Seahawks passed on Berry because they had a bigger need at a more important position, well Cleveland does too. After trading Quinn and cutting Derek Anderson, Cleveland needs a QB. Clausen could be picked here but I don't think he will. Holemgren has recently compared Colt McCoy to Steve Young. Combine this with Holemgrens track record not drafting his QB's early Clausen will not be the pick. Berry is the Best Player Available.
8. Raiders - Bruce Campbell - OT - Maryland - The Raiders desperately need an OT to open holes for Michael Bush and protect Bruce Gradkowski so he can throw it to Louis Murphy while the Raiders 3 consecutive top ten draft picks sit on the bench (to be fair McFadden is not bad, just often injureed and has no blocking). However the fact that the Raiders drafted JaMarcus Russell, Darren McFadden, and Darius Heyward-Bey proves one thin, all they care about is athleticism. Well this year they can draft for athleticism and need with Bruce Campbell. To me this just seems too perfect to actually happen. I for one will not be surprised when the Raiders take Taylor Mays and his unofficial 4.28 40 time. another opyion hear is Jimmy Clausen because, well, Jamarcus Russell sucks.
9. Bills - Jimmy Clausen - QB - Notre Dame - If the Draft shakes out like this, this pick will be the most important pick the Bills will have made in the past decade. If they get it right and take Clausen, who has miraculously fallen to them, then they will have their franchise QB and will be on the right path to rebuilding, take anyone else and they will continue to suffer in mediocrity for no reason. Taking a QB in a later round is geat only for established teams with good coaches and a solid supporting cast,its not where you look for a franchise QB worthy of rebuilding around. The Bills learned this with Trent Edwards and they can't afford to make the same mistake again. In my opinion, Clausen is the best QB in the Draft. He has a great arm, put up beastly numbers in a pro style offense without much of a supporting cast, and is not coming off of shoulder surgery.
10. Jags - Joe Haden - CB - Florida - The Jags play in the same division as the Colts. If they want to stop the Colts there going to need to cover Peytons recievers and put pressure on Peyton. They Jags drafted Quentin Groves and Derrick Harvey, and signed Aaron Kampman so they might be able to get some pressure on Peyton. By adding a lockdown corner they can address the issue of covering of Peytons many weapons. However, the biggest issue facing the Jags is putting asses in the seats. I think this is why they insist upon drafting Florida players (Reggie Nelson, Harvey, possibly Haden). None of those players can save them but there is one man who can, Tim Tebow. Tebow is a god in Florida. With Tebow on the team, the Jags will sell out evry game this year. If Tebow succeeds, their Ticket selling problems will vanish. Do not be surprised if the Jags trade down for Tebow.
11. Broncos - Jason Pierre-Paul - DE/OLB - South Florida - No one really has any idea what the Broncos will do, Josh McDaniels is unpredictable, He drafted Knowshon Moreno at no. 12, Traded a first rounder for Alphonso Smith, a Nickle corne, and drafted a blocking Tight End in round 2. They ignored glaring defensive needs on all these picks (granted they did draft Robert Ayers). Predictions for the Broncos this year range from Rolando McClain to Dezz Bryant to Maurkice Pouncey, a center on Florida. I have JPP here for a few reasons. Denver won't take Dez, they just traded a talented wide reciever with attitude issues. I don't think it will be McClain either. Denver, much like KC, models itself after the Pats. The Pats believe in having a veteran presence at ILB (not realy the more or less just believe in having fossils everywhere on D), we saw the Broncos try to do this last year when they went out and signed evry veteran defender they could find. JPP fills a need on D. Outside of Elvis Dumervil Denver did not have much else in terms of pass rush.
12. Dolphins - Dan Williams - NT - Tennesse - The Dolphins have needs at OLB after Porter and Jason Taylor left but I doubt they'll pass up Dan Williams. Parcells loves this guy and quality NT's are hard to find.
13. 49ers - Earl Thomas - S - Texas - SanFran needs to come out of the first with OT and a DB if they want to have a legitimate shot at winning the division this year. Earl is the second best Safetey in the draft and is versatile enough to play corner. They'll take him here and draft tackle later reather than risk losing him to the Giants, Seahawks, or Titans.
14. Seahawks - Derrick Morgan - DE - Georgia Tech - Patrick Kerney's retirement means the 'Hawks need a DE. Morgan is a true 4-3 end and is probably the best DE in th draft. Dez Bryant is also a possiblity here as Seattle does not have a true number 1 reciever, but i don't think the Seahaks can afford to ignore D in the 1st round.
15. Giants - Rolando McClain - MLB - Alabama - As a Giants fan I will be ecstatic if McClain falls to my team. He fills in a major need, provides the leadership that this team lacks. He is a proven winner and a very smart football player. He QB'd Alabama's D to a national championship. If he is not on the board (Denver takes him) CJ Spiller is the pick. Spiller fits the Giants new passing based offense better than Jacobs, who had a down year. It is not a stretch to see McClain fall, great ILBs have dropped significantly in the past few years, Maualuga, Laurenitis, and DeMeco Ryans all fell into the second round.
16. Titans - Everson Griffin - DE - USC - The Titans have lost Kyle VandenBosh this year to add to the pain of losing Albert Haynesworth last year. Tennessee needs D-Line and Griffin is the best DE on the Board. Brian Price may also be an option. Without Haynesworth, the D-Line was a shell of its former self. The Titans may rebuild the D-Line using Price as their new Haynesworth.
17. 49ers - Anthony Davis - OT - Rutgers - SanFran gets their Tackle. Had they taken Davis with the no. 13, the Giants probably would have taken Thomas, leavingthe 9ers to reach for Kyle Wilson or Devin McCourtney.
18. Pitt - Kyle Wilson - CB - Boise - The Steelers could use a do need but what they really need is a way to stop their QB from raping people. The Steelers may trade up for a QB. If you havent noticed yet, Dez Bryant is free-falling. Pitt wont take him for the same reason as the Broncos, they just traded a talented yet troubled reciever.
19. ATL - Sean Weatherspoon - OLB - Mizzou - The Falcons don't have Many needs. I really think last year was just a slump, and a result of injuries to Matt Ryan and Michael Turner. Weatherspoon can improve a defense that has been mediocre. A pass rusher, like Brandon Graham is also a strong possibility.
20. Texans - Ryan Matthews - RB - Fresno - With Earl Thomas long gone, the texans switch their focus to the RB position. Matthews goes here over Spiller because the Texans have already been bitten in the ass by another small-but-quick RB, Steve Slaton. Matthews will split carries with Slaton and allow be used the way he should be, as a very good change of pace. a corner like Devin McCourtney is also a strong possiblity, as D, particularly the secondary, is Houstons's biggest need.
21. Bengals - Dez Bryant - WR - Oklahoma State - As we get to the latter portion of the draft teams have less and less needs. The Bengals can use some secondary help, but there D carried them last year. There offense is OK but Benson slowed down toward the end of the year and he carried their offense through the majority of the season. The Bengals did sign Antonio Bryant, but Dez is to great a value to pass up here. The Bengals have shown in the past that they dont care about character issues. Ocho's getting older, and they have a few good complimentary recievers but no future number 1. The passing game hasn't been the same since Housh left. Dez will give the recieving core that second number one reciever that they lost with Housh.
22. Pats - Brandon Graham - DE/OLB - Michigan - NE's D has gotten much younger in the past few years. They currently have zero players who have walked with the dinosaurs, a huge difference from several years ago. The D can still use some help. Adalius Thomas has been miscast in Bill's system, so they can use another pass rusher to take some pressure off of him. Graham fits the bill. Tim Tebow is a strong possibility here because Bill is just an Evil Madman. The most likely scenario is that they trade down several times before picking.
23. Packers - Charles Brown - OT - USC - The Pack desperately need help in the trenches. The O-Line, along with the aging secondary that was exposed by Arizona, is this teams Achilles Heel. Take OT, Aaron Rodgers says thank you.
24. Eagles - Devin McCourty - CB - Rutgers - The Eagles can use some help in the secondary. They cut Shelden Brown this year and lost Lito Sheppard and Brian Dawkins last year. Mike Iupati is also a possiblity. Reid loves fat guys and another O-Lineman would improve the running game and pass protection and put Kolb in a position to succeed.
25. Ravens - Jermaine Gresham - TE - Oklahoma - Gresh falls because of his injury but the Ravens would love to have him. A TE like Gresham would take this offense to the next level.
26. Cardinals - Sergio Kindle - DE/OLB - Texas - The linebacking core needed help before Dansby left. They did get Joey Porter but the pass rush can use some more help, as many of the team leaders in sacks are older than 30. The Cards no.1 need is obviosly QB. Tim Tebow can very likely be drafted here. I can envision a situation (Mike The Situation) in which the Jags trade David Garrard and a second for this pick to and Derek Anderson or Matt "Hot Tub" Lienart and use it to pick Tebow.
27. Them Cowboys - Mike Iupati - OG - Idaho - The Cowboys finally won a playoff game this year! Unfortunately they got mauled and gored in the next round because they couldn't block. They also released Flozell Adams. A powerful O-Lineman like Iupati gives the O-Line some toughness.
28. Bolts - CJ Spiller - RB - Clemson - LT is gone and I am personally sad to see hin go but it was time. RB is the biggest need and they fortunately can select possib;y the best in the draft thanks to Steve Slaton. Spiller is great but he is somewhat similar to Sproles. Dwyer may be an option. Mount Cody could also be considered here.
29. J-E-T-S - Taylor Mays - S - USC - The Jets have very few needs because they attacked the free agency and trade market. I had a pass rusher in this spot, like Jerry Hughes, but then the J-E-T-S just signed Jason Taylor. So the Jets will take another Taylor with Mays. Mays' liability in the passing game will be shielded by the coverage of Darrell Revis and to an extent Cromartie.
30. Vikes - Brian Price - DT - UCLA - The Williams Wall will not last forever. Kevin is getting old and Pat has long been there. At the right Price, the wall can be held up for years (I have to get all my jokes out now, its almost over). The Vikes have a major need at corner so Kareem Jackson is a strong possibility.
31. Peyton - Maurkice Pouncy - C/G - Florida - The Colts have made one thing obvious in the draft, Peyton comes before the rest of the team. That is why they always draft offense despite the fact that their D always has needs. Saturday won't last forever and Peyton can never have enough protection.
32. Saints - Carlos Dunlap - Lazy DE - Florida - As the reigning Super Bowl Champs the Saints can afford to take a chance on Dunlap. Dunlap is a physical BEAST but he just seems like he doesn't care. He doesn't take plays off, there are only a few plays in every game where he acutally trys and those plays usually end in heavy pressure. Dunlap was at one point number 1 on Kipers Big Board.