2010 NFL Mock Draft: Final Version, Bills Draft QB Jimmy Clausen

You’ve read all the scout reports, you’ve listened to all the draft experts, you’ve wasted more paper than you can count on mocks. You have a few good options for each team in your head and you’re convinced that nothing will surprise you on draft day.

Then the real thing comes and it looks like nothing you have seen or read for the past few months. What happened? Why do you feel so blind-sided on draft day?

The answer is actually quite simple—there is a difference between how the media projects the draft and how the draft actually play out. The media-portrayed draft is very neat and tidy. There is a small window for where each player could go given their value, there are only certain positions each team would draft (usually their biggest need), there are no trades in any of the mocks because that would invite people to turn this into a video game…the list goes on.

People seem to forget that the draft is anything but tidy. It is a messy free-for-all where every team scurries for the best position.

There are trades every year in the first round and because many teams like to be proactive, teams reach and players fall because GMs don’t copy the ESPN draft board. The reason why everyone gets so shocked on draft day is because the media creates a very narrow-minded view of the draft and doesn’t take into account the chaos and the flux apparent of draft day.

While my first mock draft set the foundation with a non-trade approach, I've taken it further to predict and simulate the chaos. Some of my picks here will be surprising to you. However, let me be clear. I will not make a surprise pick just for the sake of it being a surprise. Surprise picks can still be logical. There will also be trades in this mock. I just don’t see the point of simulating the draft if you take out one of its key variables.

1 St. Louis Rams – Sam Bradford QB

Still the consensus No.1 pick. Barring some sort of breaking news report, I would feel both arrogant and ignorant to have anyone else at this spot.

2 Detroit Lions – Ndamukong Suh DT

Okung could be taken here over the two DTs but the reason I have Suh here over McCoy or Okung is Jim Schwartz. Albert Haynesworth made his defence very successful in Tennessee and I think Schwartz will stick to a successful formula. Suh is the premier power DT and perhaps the best player of this draft.

3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Gerald McCoy DT

Either McCoy or Suh would be fine for Tampa fans, though if I were a Bucs fan, I would be happy I got McCoy. History has shown that the smarter, faster DTs have more success than the more powerful ones, at least in their rookie year. The Bucs get an extraordinary talent and fill a positional need with this pick.

4 Washington Redskins – Russell Okung OT

Okung to me is the safest player in this year’s draft. Left tackles taken early (such as Joe Thomas or Ryan Clady) often do well in the NFL. Regardless of who plays at QB for the Redskins, he’s going to have to be protected.

5 Kansas City Chiefs – Brian Bulaga OT

I had Eric Berry here in my last draft and I actually still believe that he would be the best pick. The problem is, I don’t think that’s what Pioli will do anymore. Pioli loves drafting for need and he will reach for need if warranted. Safety simply is not a position he thinks is justified for a top-five pick. Bulaga has what Pioli likes in a player. He has good intangibles and is NFL ready, that and of course he fits a need.

6 Seattle Seahawks – Eric Berry S

Seattle should be thrilled to get Berry at pick number six of this draft. They need help in the secondary badly and Berry would really help them out. Some people may project Trent Williams here and I admit there’s a good possibility that he’ll be taken here given their needs. However I do think that Berry is the more NFL-ready prospect and hence the safer pick.

7 Cleveland Browns – Dez Bryant WR

Don’t get me wrong; there are a million things that can happen here on draft day. The Browns can take Earl Thomas or Joe Haden to help out their horrific secondary, or C.J. Spiller to give them a play-maker in the running game (they’re eighth in the league in rushing, but ask any Browns fan and they’ll tell you that they need a superstar there.) Clausen would also be a very logical pick, but Holmgren is openly a non-fan.

I thought about trading down with a team that wants to leapfrog Buffalo for Clausen; the problem with that is they’ll have to dodge multiple bullets from Oakland, Buffalo, Denver and the 49ers as they could steal the prospects they’re eyeing.

In the end, I went back to Holmgren’s drafting philosophy: taking the best player available. My friend and I sat down and thought about who the best player is at this point of the draft and the answer was Dez Bryant. He was just too dominant in college for us to overlook.

8 Oakland Raiders – Bruce Campbell OT

The Raiders can always surprise us with another athlete such as Taylor Mays, but they picked Huff not so long ago and Al Davis does not like to admit his mistakes. Campbell fits a need position that Al recognises and has that athleticism to go with it.

9 Buffalo Bills – Jimmy Clausen QB

If any of you want a surprise at this point of the draft, I think Dan Williams to the Bills would be a decent call. Buffalo are known to reach for position and they certainly do need a NT. However it is also no mystery that they need a QB quite badly. Clausen to me is the best QB of this year's class and has all the tools to succeed in the NFL. His leadership qualities are still in question, but I believe that’s something the Bills are willing to gamble on.

10 Jacksonville Jaguars – Earl Thomas S

The Jags had the fewest sacks in the league last year, so a DE would be a possibility. However, they invested a lot of money in Harvey and Groves. You would think that the Jags will stay away from taking DEs early for a while if not just to learn from their mistakes. I went with Earl Thomas here instead because the Jags like filling positional needs more than most. Thomas can play FS and both corner spots. I think that versatility along with his amazing instincts are enough to validate this pick.

11 Denver Broncos – Rolando McClain LB

If this is an accurate simulation of what happens on draft day, Denver should pick McClain in a heartbeat. They need that 3-4 ILB badly and McClain would be more than adequate in that role. He’s smart, well coached, decently athletic for the position and has great leadership abilities. This pick is a no-brainer.

12 Miami Dolphins – Sergio Kindle OLB

This is the same pick I had last draft and I think it makes too much sense to change. Parcells likes smart, strong, and fast football players. He also puts a premium on good pass rushers in this league. Kindle is a perfect fit for the Dolphin’s 3-4 defence, especially after Joey Porter’s departure.

13 San Francisco 49ers – Joe Haden CB

The Niners would love to take Earl Thomas here, but the Jags took him at 10 so they take the next best thing in Haden. Haden is rated as the best corner in this year’s draft. Though he does not have elite speed, he has adequate speed with good reflexes and agility. There are some good OT prospects here, namely Trent Williams and Anthony Davis, but the 49ers have another pick at 17 so they can afford to gamble.

14 Seattle Seahawks – Trent Williams OT

Seattle had a toss-up between Williams and Berry with the sixth overall pick, so they should be overjoyed to be able to draft both prospects. Williams is a guy who has shown promise and improvement especially at the end of his career and could potentially be the franchise LT to replace Walter Jones.

15 New York Giants – Sean Weatherspoon LB

The Giants don’t really have many needs, but they do have one big one at ILB. Replacing Antonio Pierce is no easy task but I believe that Weatherspoon can pull it off. Drafting a LB in the first round is also usually a safe bet, which is especially important with how big contracts are getting now.

16 Tennessee Titans – Derrick Morgan DE

Tennessee is usually an annoying team to predict because of their BPA strategy and unique eye for talent. You just need to look at what happened with Chris Johnson to know what I’m talking about.

Fortunately, I don’t think even the Titans can pass up this opportunity. Morgan is perhaps the most talented DE in the draft and addressing the DL should be a priority in Tennessee.

17 San Francisco 49ers – Anthony Davis OT

Ask any Niners fan and they will tell you that OT is a big need on their team. I didn’t pick up a RT with their last pick simply because there’s enough talent there for them to wait, and indeed one of the top RTs is still here at RT. Davis has some problems with his intangibles but I don’t think it’s anything Mike Singletary can’t handle.

** The Steelers trade their first round pick for the Jets first, fourth, and fifth round picks.**

18 New York Jets from Pittsburgh Steelers – Dan Williams NT

We finally have the first trade of the draft! It’s not that I didn’t want to make any trades with any of the previous picks but the draft just seemed to fall so nicely to so many teams and there was just no reason for them to make a move.

I think that’s not quite the case here. Pittsburgh has a few needs, especially with the drama concerning Roethlisberger and Holmes. They can pick up a NT, CB, WR, G, C… there are quite a few options for them really but I don’t think any players really scream out to them. Therefore they trade down with the aggressive Jets.

The Jets have a history of trading up and grabbing players with their first rounders; in fact, they’ve done that for the last three years! I don’t think this year should be any different. If they sit and wait at 29, there’s a good chance that all their top 3-4 prospects such as Odrick, Williams and Hughes would be gone. The Jets don’t have a lot of picks this year, but I honestly don’t think it’ll stop them from making a move.

19 Atlanta Falcons – Brandon Graham DE

There are only so many NFL-ready DEs in the draft and I think Graham’s one of them. I’ve yet to see Mike Smith take a pure project in the first round, which is why I prefer Graham over guys like Jason Pierre-Paul. Graham is a bit undersized but should still provide the Falcons with the pass rusher they need. Golden Tate is another reasonable possibility here.

20 Houston Texans – C.J. Spiller RB

Even I’m surprised at how far Spiller fell (I had him going to the Browns in my last draft). I thought about trading up but after San Francisco, but there really weren’t any teams that would obviously want a RB. That means that Houston had a good chance of grabbing either Spiller or Matthews, both of whom they should be fine with.

Slaton hit that dreaded sophomore slump and was even benched a few times last year. A feature back is just too important to overlook. Even if Slaton bounces back, there’s nothing wrong with spending money on a good one-two punch at RB.

21 Cincinatti Bengals – Taylor Mays S

Mays has been called the best physical specimen at safety EVER by Mel Kiper. Though I’m not sure if Mel’s been exaggerating a little, but there’s no doubt in my mind that he’s an intriguing prospect. Cincy likes to draft the super-athletic guys, aiming for a home run hit. As far as they are concerned, the draft is a gamble anyway so they might as well gamble big. Safety is also one of their biggest need positions, despite their improvements on defence this year.

22 New England Patriots – Jerry Hughes OLB

The Patriots like put a lot of weight in a player’s intangibles. They need to be smart and they shouldn’t start any drama in the locker room. The second point has become even more important of late with the injection of youth into the team. Jerry Hughes has all those intangibles the Patriots look for in a player, he is also a rare fit in as an OLB in the 3-4 defense. This should be an easy pick for the Pats.

23 Green Bay Packers – Kyle Wilson CB

Ted Thompson, the GM for the Packers, may be the poster boy for drafting BPA, or the best player available, regardless of position. Luckily for me I do not need to try and pick the brains of a madman here with Wilson falling to them. Wilson is a very talented corner, and I am willing to bet that he’s at least in the conversation if the draft ends up falling this way.

Corner is also a big team need with both Harris and Woodson in their mid 30s. There are other good value picks here such as Pouncey, Iupati or one of the wide receivers, but the Packers are pretty strong in those areas.

24 Philadelphia Eagles – Maurkice Pouncey C

Andy Reid loves picking up lineman on draft day. Pouncey is great value here at 24 and could’ve easily been picked in the teens. Given the team’s drafting history, I think this is quite an easy call.

25 Baltimore Ravens – Demaryius Thomas WR

I know that they just signed Marshall and Stallworth, but I still think this pick makes sense. Stallworth had that one good season with the Eagles but never really did too much else. Do you realize that he has never gained over 1000 yards in a year? Derrick Mason is back, but at 36, he's an NFL senior citizen. The only guy behind them really is Clayton and we all know that he’s not a good option. The Ravens have also been all over Thomas to the point that you can pencil this pick in.

26 Arizona Cardinals – Tim Tebow QB

I know what you guys are thinking. What’s with this bozo making such a fanboy pick? Let me plead my case.

Ken Wisenhunt’s success has always come hand-in-hand with a good QB. Think back to when he was an offensive coordinator at Pittsburgh, the Steelers only started to pick things up offensively after they drafted Big Ben. Recent off-field issues aside, there’s no denying that he has skills on the football field. In Arizona, what was the biggest contributing factor to the Cardinals making their first Super Bowl? Kurt Warner. He has now retired. Ken Wisenhunt knows the importance of having a top QB and possibly values that over any other head coach in the NFL.

I think it’s evident that Wisenhunt doesn’t trust Leinart or he would’ve named him the starter already. The fact that they got Warner in the first place should also tell you something. Tebow is a project, but he is the ultimate project, one that can potentially win you championships.

27 Dallas Cowboys – Jared Odrick DE

In all honesty, I had the Cowboys trading up with the Bengals while I was writing this mock only to cancel the trade because of something I read on NFL.com. Believe it or not, Jerry Jones has never drafted an offensive lineman in the first round. More shockingly, he is actually considering pulling the trigger this year. That to me was enough reason to make the Cowboys stay at 27.

I think Dallas has enough options here for them to play it conservatively. Jerry has also noted that this is a deep draft, so trading down is also a possibility and not just trading up.

Either way, despite there being good offensive linemen here, I think Jones drafts the three-technique instead. If this is how the draft rolls out, I think Jerry would be quite content at the number of offensive linemen left. There’s still Iupati, Brown, Saffold, Ducasse… etc. left in the draft. All of these guys are quality linemen and you would think that one of them has to be there in the second round. Although Jerry will consider drafting OL in the first round, I think given the circumstances, he can stick with his old formula for a little longer.

28 San Diego Chargers – Ryan Matthews RB

The Chargers were fantastic offensively last year, but they were still the 30th-ranked rush offense in the league. With Tomlinson’s slump, the team struggled producing any sort of rushing attack even while trying to keep their play-calling balanced. They should be really happy that Matthews fell to them and snatch him up without ever looking back.

29 Pittsburgh Steelers from New York Jets – Mike Iupati OG

As I said, there are a number of ways Pittsburgh could go this year. With Roethlisberger out for at least four, maybe six games, Pittsburgh has to revert back to the old Steeler way— power running and great defense. A guard here would definitely help their cause. Iupati is also a talented player and a fairly safe pick.

30 Minnesota Vikings – Devin McCourty CB

Corner is a big need for Minnesota with both their starters coming off injuries. Not only does McCourty fill a positional need, he has both the athleticism and the intangibles to succeed under Brad Childress.

31 Indianapolis Colts – Corey Wootton DE

Yes, I am giving the team with two of the best pass rushers in the league another defensive end. If you read my last draft, I was intrigued by a conversation some Colts fans were having on a forum. When Freeney or Mathis gets hurt, the Colts go from a Super Bowl contender to bombing out. Unfortunately for them, those guys get hurt quite often.

I don’t think I gave Wooton enough credit as a pass rusher with my last mock as he’s actually decently fast. Not only can Wooton serve as a safety valve for the Colts, he can also function very well in a rotation with the other DEs, especially in run support. It would also fit into how the Colts have drafted in past years too. Anthony Gonzalez anyone?

32 New Orleans Saints – Daryl Washington LB

We finally get to the Super Bowl champions. There are a few options they can go with here, though most of them seem to be on defense. Their DL could get some help, especially at the DT spot next to Sedrick Ellis. However, I think LB is an even greater need with Fujita leaving. That other OLB spot has also been void for quite a while now. Vilma is the only real option they have at LB in general.

Washington is a guy who can play through traffic, which is why I picked him over some of the other LB prospects for the Saints.

*48 Carolina Panthers – Rennie Curran LB

Bite me. I’m a Panthers fan, I’m allowed to give my team a pick in my last mock of the year. Some of my fellow Panther fans might be a little shocked here, just because most of them seem to be expecting a WR. I don’t deny that WR is a big need, especially with Moore finally getting his chance to start, I just think Curran would fit what the front office likes to do on draft day more.

The Panthers have had a good record with their first picks under Fox and I think a lot of it is because they’ve picked safe positions, or at least positions they know they can evaluate and coach well. For LBs they’ve drafted Beason and Davis, whereas with WRs they’ve drafted the likes of Colbert and Jarrett. Davis is coming off a serious injury this year and the other LB spot is bare, Curran would do very well here given his speed and football smarts.

Final Thoughts

I hope you’ve enjoyed this mock, I did my best to make this reasonable while not getting completely brainwashed by the media hype. I want to thank my buddy Luke Appel for helping me put mock together. We’ve had equal say in most of the picks and I’ve only really taken over because I wanted to finish it ASAP. I’ll be back with more next year!

Composed by H2H Member Nagai