10 Reasons the Detroit Lions Must NOT Draft Russell Okung

What should the Detroit Lions do with the second overall pick in 2010?

Should the Lions select the best player—Ndamukong Suh—or should the Lions pick the player with the most positional value—offensive tackle Russell Okung?

WalterFootball.com has placed themselves firmly in the second camp with an article making the rounds on the Detroit Lions' blogs and message boards. Although it is a persuasive article, and has confirmed the already-held beliefs of many, it is incomplete— leaving out pertinent pieces of both information and logic.

The original article is both false and misleading and yet, is being taken as gospel by many.

EDIT: Just a note, my problem is not with Walter Football and the opinion of the writer, it is that the opinions are presented as facts and that people in the Lions fan base have taken them as Gospel.

Here is a response.

Protecting the Franchise Investment

Matthew Stafford is the most important Detroit Lion. The success or failure of the Lions is linked to the success or failure of Matthew Stafford.

So what is the best way to help him succeed?

The basest, least intuitive answer is: upgrade the left tackle position.

But, football is a complex game, and there is always more than one way to skin a cat.

What are some other ways to protect Matthew Stafford? Improve the run game, improve the defense, improve special teams, improve the other four positions on the offensive line, improve the receiving corps, improve the timing of the offense, improve his decision making, improve the play calling, etc.

How do all of those things help?

Because the one factor that will get a QB killed is the amount of times he is asked or forced to throw.

Stafford dropped back to throw 413 times in 10 games in 2009—more than 40 times a game, and more ofter than quarterbacks in high octane offenses like New Orleans, Indianapolis, Houston, San Diego, and Green Bay.

Want to help protect Stafford? There are plenty of ways to do it besides drafting a left tackle.

Peppers, Matthews, and Allen

Yes, there are some great right defensive ends in the NFC North.

What else is in the NFC North? Quarterbacks—Aaron Rodgers, Brett Favre, and Jay Cutler.

Want to stop Peppers, Matthews, and Allen?

Again, the most obvious way to do that is improve the left tackle position.

Another great way to stop those defensive ends (especially Peppers)—keep them on the field.

Then, field a defense that consistently treats Rodgers, Farve, and Cutler like a trio of Raggedy Ann dolls and gets off the field in three downs.

Then, throughout the entire draft, field an offense that can sustain drives. That means improve at every position...not just at left tackle.

Offensive Tackles Have High Hit and Low Bust Rates

For the “proof” in this section of the original article, the writer at Walter Football uses a completely subjective scale of “hit” or “bust” or “OK” for the offensive tackles taken in the top 16 picks since 1993.

Notice that top 16 and 1993 are some pretty awkward (read: subjective) numbers when your talking about a massive amount of tackles taken in the bottom half of the first round in all of the years previous to 1993.

The original contends that only five of 31 tackles have busted (16 percent) but fails to note the four he labeled “TBA.” If all of those were to bust, it would increase to 29 percent. In fact, later, the writer disparages two of them—Jason Smith is a “workout warrior,” and Andre Smith is a “pig.”

The original also offers up luminaries like Kyle Turley, Shawn Andrews, Leonard Davis, and Chris Williams as “OK” even though none of them are considered left tackles. If one is drafting a tackle that high to protect the quarterback, one expects him to play left tackle.

Those are busts.

That list runs the percentage up to (a possible) 42 percent.

So, depending on how the “TBA” crowd does, the actual number is anywhere from 16 to 42 percent.

Sounds like rock-solid “proof” to me.

Numbers are fun. So is objectivity.

The group that busts-out most in the NFL is fat guys or immature kids who don't like to work and who get paid a massive amount of money.

The way a team protects itself from busts is working out, meeting, interviewing, and vetting possible draftees. Teams that do that well will have less busts.

Is Ndamukong Suh Over-hyped?

How does this point in any way, shape, or form, reinforce the point of the original article?

First, the writer points out that Suh is not Reggie White.

Next, the writer compares Suh to Cortez Kennedy, calling Kennedy a future Hall-of-Famer and noting that Suh would be “lucky” to have a career as good as Kennedy's.

STOP. THE. PRESSES.

A kid, fresh out of college, will be lucky to get to the Hall of Fame?

And, that he compares to a Hall of Fame-caliber player isn't good enough?

Note here that nowhere in the article does the writer compare Okung to a Hall of Fame-caliber left tackle. No expert out there is calling Okung the next Anthony Munoz, Jonathan Ogden, or Orlando Pace.

It is quite the opposite. Most experts point out that Okung might not be the top tackle in the draft (some like Bryan Bulaga, some like Trent Williams). Almost all point out that Okung isn't in the caliber of recent top tackles like Joe Thomas or Jake Long.

Here's a tip: general managers and scouts of teams in the National Football League rank their own players and don't care what pundits have to say.

Ndamukong Suh's Bust Factor and Knees

The first paragraph in the original explains that the NFL draft is a crap shoot.

Okay, agreed...the Detroit Lions should pass on all picks and trade them for established free agents—it's worked for the Washington Redskins.

So Suh can bust, yet no mention is made of Russell Okung being a possible bust.

Huh?

It has already been covered that Okung's positional bust-rate could be as high as 40 percent!

Yet, the unpredictability of the draft is used as a negative against Suh and Suh only?

Poppycock!

Admittedly, two knee injuries is a problem, something that someone should look at. If a team were thinking about drafting Suh, knee injuries really should concern that team.

The NFL should work out some sort of system that draft prospects get looked at by a doctor before being drafted.

Oh wait, they do that at the NFL combine.

If an orthopedic surgeon said that Suh's knees are good enough to be drafted in the first round, it is logical to infer that said surgeon knows how to look at matters like long-term effects of knee injuries, arthritis, and degenerative deterioration better than a guy who owns a draft website.

Until WalterFootball.com releases some MRI's and a secret medical background that no one knows about, this is mostly nonsense.

In a sport where collisions are measured in terms of “car crash vs. freight train,” picking the player least likely to be injured is impossible—healthy is good enough, and as of April 22, Suh is just as healthy as Okung.

Defensive Tackle is No Longer a Need

Sammie Lee Hill, a fifth-round pick out of Stillman was the brightest bulb in a brown-out last year for the Lions defense. Calling him anything more than a replacement-level player who is still a project is nonsense. Lions fans love Hill as a player but he's not exactly a lock to start for the next 10 years.

Corey Williams, a good player once upon a time, is moving back to the 4-3 defense. Williams is expected to bounce back from his exile as a 3-4 DE and have a good year.

“If wishes and wants were candy and nuts, we'd all have a merry Christmas.”

So defensive tackle is not a need because the Lions are supposed to rely on a second-year player and a 30-year-old?

After those two, the Lions have to look forward to a litany of young, unproven players who have never had a lick of success in the NFL—many of whom were added in 2009 to patch up a defensive line that was devoid of any discernible talent.

All of this glosses over the more important fact that head coach Jim Schwartz has always employed a heavy rotation on the defensive line and that a player like Suh or Gerald McCoy would be a starter and play starter snaps but the player along side him would rotate quite a bit.

Defensive tackle will continue to be a need until the projects at that position have either blossomed into quality players or have been cut.

Yet, offensive tackle is supposedly a more pressing need even though the same man has started at that spot for 139 games.

According to Walter Football, defensive tackle is not a need because two average players and big question marks field it while offensive tackle is a need because an average player who is remarkably durable plays there.

Money

This is far and away the biggest end-around in the entire original article.

In the original, the writer makes the point that a lot of money will be tied up in the Detroit Lions defensive tackle position if they draft Suh.

The writer also notes the bad teams at the top—Oakland, Kansas City, and Washington as evidence that having money in the defensive line is a bad idea.

The writer does not note the other systemic problems of those franchises, nor does he note the presence of New England, Minnesota, or the New York Jets. The Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers, Cincinnati Bengals, and Pittsburgh Steelers round out the top 10.

But the biggest and most egregious omission is the lack of any mention about the money currently tied up in the Detroit Lions offensive line—Jeff Backus and Dominic Raiola both have large contracts, Gosder Cherilus is a recent first-round pick and new signing, Rob Sims, will need a new contract next year.

With the addition of Sims, the drafting of Okung means that one highly paid player is going to the bench.

If Suh is drafted, Sammie Lee Hill, playing on a rookie contract as a fifth-round pick, will sit yet still play meaningful minutes in a heavy rotation.

And which is the more economically sound proposal?

Russell Okung —Not a Scrub

So, don't draft Suh because he's not Reggie White—just a potential Hall of Fame-caliber player. But draft Okung because he's “not a scrub.”

If the best praise one can allow is “not a scrub,” it is a problem.

The truth is, Russell Okung is a very good player and a great offensive tackle prospect.

He just isn't nearly as good at his position as Suh or McCoy are at defensive tackle.

The writer points out that Suh isn't the consensus tackle but fails to point out that both Suh and Okung are considered by the consensus opinion to be better prospects than McCoy. He also is incorrect in saying that Okung is the consensus offensive tackle—ask the Washington Redskins and Seattle Seahawks who are rumored to consider Trent Williams a better prospect because of his athleticism.

Jeff Backus

Fact: Jeff Backus is old, getting to the end of his less-than-illustrious career.

Fact: Very soon, the Detroit Lions need to begin worrying about what to do with the left tackle position.

What isn't a fact is that Jeff Backus played poorly last year. Jeff Backus was asked to pass-block more times than all but five NFL teams—585 pass attempts by the Lions offense, 413 of those by Stafford.

Backus gave up eight sacks last year or a sack on 1.3 percent of pass attempts. Jake Long weighs in at .9 percent, while Bryant McKinnie posted a 1.6.

Again, back to the aforementioned point, football is a complex game.

The truth of the matter is that Jeff Backus, for all the negative stigma, was an above average player in 2009—probably the best season of his career. His resurgence can be linked to a scheme that fits him better and possibly the new offensive line coach.

The final word about Jeff Backus belongs to head coach Jim Schwartz who believes that Jeff Backus deserved to be in the conversation for the Pro Bowl in 2009.

That final word means more than any written by a writer on any website.

Atoning For Past Mistakes

Where was this argument last year when the Lions once again passed on a defensive player for an offensive one?

Instead, the argument made on Walter Football last year was that the Lions should forget about past QB mistakes like Joey Harrington or Andre Ware.

So in 2009, the Lions should forget about past mistakes, but in 2010 that same crew should atone for them.

The truth lies in the fact that this regime has nothing to atone for from the past two or three front office configurations.

In Closing

The author of the article finishes by writing that his article may have been a waste of time.

(Too easy.)

So what should the Lions do?

Draft whoever they feel is the most talented athlete and player that fits their team the best.

Michael Schottey operates Blue And Silver Pride and is a Detroit Lions featured columnist for Bleacher Report . He also serves as a team correspondent for DraftTek.com and is a guest blogger for Mlive's Highlight Reel . Check out his Podcasts and add him on Twitter !