Tebow's College Numbers Do Not Guarantee NFL Success

Numbers Never Lie – Except When They Do

A rebuttal to http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/kerry_byrne/03/22/tim.tebow/index.html

In an article posted on SI.com by Kerry Byrne the argument appears to be that passing numbers in college prove that Tim Tebow will be the best quarterback in NFL history and should be selected first overall in the draft. 

The author bases his conclusions on comparing Tebow’s college numbers with those of the five SEC quarterbacks who have been picked first overall in the draft.  To refresh readers’ memories, those players were Peyton and Eli Manning, Tim Couch, JaMarcus Russell, and Matt Stafford. 

Mr. Byrne demonstrates that Tebow in college had a better completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdown to interception ratio, and NFL style passer rating than any of the SEC quarterback selected first overall.  Other arguments he makes in Tebow’s favor are the fact that he won the Heisman Trophy and two national championships (one as starter), and that some of the others played on really great teams with loads of talent elsewhere than quarterback. 

Each of these arguments appears plausible at first but none of these claims lead to anything remotely resembling predicted success in the NFL.

The folks at Cold Hard Football Facts may claim that they are only impressed by numbers and productivity, but any student of elementary math knows that in order for A to equal B, then B must also equal A. 

In other words, if college numbers are such a great predictor of NFL success, then all college quarterbacks with really great stats in the past should have become great NFL passers.  Students of NFL history know it doesn’t always work that way.

The following article takes each of Mr. Byrne’s points and refutes them based on more complete history and better data. 

First, comparing Tebow with the five SEC quarterbacks selected first overall is rather misleading.  For one thing that list comprises a decidedly mixed bag of players in terms of NFL success. 

Couch was a disappointment, and Russell appears to be well on his way to becoming one of the biggest draft busts of all time. 

Rather than restricting the list to SEC players who have had such varied success in the pros, I chose to look at the college statistics of ten of the best active NFL quarterbacks who entered the league between 1997 and 2006.  I used those years because I didn’t want to include someone whose college numbers were so far back that they could not be compared with recent college players.  I also wanted enough time to evaluate the players’ pro careers.

The ten successful professional quarterback I chose were Peyton and Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer, Matt Schaub, and Tony Romo.  This list includes all the Super Bowl winning quarterbacks since 2003, and all of the players on my list have played in at least one Pro Bowl. 

In the NFL, these gentlemen have an average completion percentage of 62.73 percent and an average passer rating of 90.86.  Of the ten on the list above in college, Matt Schaub had the best completion percentage (66.98 percent), and Donovan McNabb had the best Pro style passer rating (103.85).  The averages for all ten in college were 62.30 percent and 95.90—very respectable, but nowhere near the record for college quarterbacks.

To counter the ten success professional quarterbacks, I selected ten players who were very successful in college but have had limited success in the NFL. 

Since the premise is that Tebow’s college numbers predict professional glory, I gave preference to quarterbacks who had played for the Gators or Urban Meyer and Heisman Trophy winners. 

The list comprised Danny Wuerffel, Rex Grossman, Alex Smith, Ryan Leaf, Matt Leinart, Troy Smith, Kliff Kingsbury, Chris Weinke, Colt Brennan, and Andre Woodson. 

Although none of these gentlemen had NFL equivalent passer ratings in college quite up to Tebow’s 120.72, Leinart, Brennan, both Smiths, and Wuerffel had passer ratings higher than McNabb’s 103.85.  In addition, Brennan’s completion percentage was 70.39 percent, which exceeded Tebow’s 67.11 percent, which is even more impressive when one considers that Brennan made 599 more attempts than Tebow. 

The average college numbers for these ten stars were 62.90 percent completions and a passer rating of 103.81, both higher than the collection of Pro Bowl quarterbacks. 

However, comparing the eight who actually threw a pass in the NFL with their college numbers, they don’t look nearly as impressive.  The average professional completion percentage is 53.37 percent and passer rating is 67.20—quite a come down from their college prowess.

Having dismissed the notion that high college completion and passer ratings translate to great performances in the NFL, I turn to the success of Heisman winning and national championship winning quarterbacks in the pros. 

Neither factor has had much predictive value—in fact the reverse.  Only two quarterbacks have won both a national championship and a Super Bowl as a starter—Joe Namath and Joe Montana. 

As for Heisman Trophy winning quarterbacks, the most recent Heisman winning quarterback in the Hall of Fame is Roger Staubach.  Testaverde and Palmer have had some success in the NFL, but most of the rest have been mediocre at best. 

It’s a little difficult to evaluate the NFL talent of Tebow’s supporting cast since even those who have joined the pros to date have not had much time to prove or disprove their worth. 

Since Mr. Byrne chose to compare Tebow’s teammates with Peyton Manning’s, the three wide receivers he cites as high round draft picks (Kent, Nash, and Price) did not repeat their success in the NFL.  Price was the best of the bunch, and he was never much better than a No. 2 receiver. 

Meanwhile, one of Tebow’s favorite targets from 2008 (Harvin) won rookie of the year in 2009.  Two others (Murphy and Caldwell) were also drafted, so that argument appears weak. 

In addition, Tebow inherited a team that won the national championship the year before he became starter, so who looks to have been surrounded by talent throughout his college career?

Mr. Byrne seems to think that the first overall draft pick should be awarded, like the Heisman, to the offensive player with the best stats and best team record, instead of the worst team in the league being able to chose the player who best suits its needs. 

Sure, the NFL scouts occasionally whiff on identifying good NFL prospect quarterbacks out of college, but they are more likely to overvalue a quarterback based on his college stats (Leaf, Couch, Russell, Alex Smith, among many others) than overlook a future star (Brady). 

Tebow may turn into a good NFL quarterback, but he will have to make quite a few changes to his style and would be best drafted by a team who can afford to wait for him to develop into a professional, not a team with an early pick that needs help right away.