Yet Another NFL Power Poll, But This One Really Counts

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It seems like there are more Power Polls around than there are NFL teams. Every site has one—ESPN, CBS Sportsline, Sports Illustrated. The list goes on and on.

The polls usually feature the subjective rankings of one or more members of the site's staff and tend to fluctuate wildly because they are almost always greatly influenced by the flavor of the week (the Jets were as high as No. 3 in some of the early polls, but now tread near the middle of the pack).

I have devised a formula that attempts to look at the team's relative strengths and weaknesses based on two sets of statistics—their adjusted win-loss percentage and their average offensive and defensive output in relation to their opponents.

A team's adjusted win-loss percentage attempts to identify the caliber of opponents that teams are beating or losing to. You figure out the adjusted win-loss by giving a team credit for the wins of each opponent it defeated, and likewise, they are credited with the losses of each team they have lost to.

As an example, the Denver Broncos have an adjusted win-loss record of 26-6. The six teams they have beaten (Cincinnati, Cleveland, Oakland, Dallas, New England and San Diego) have combined to win 26 games. The two teams they lost to—Baltimore and Pittsburgh—have a combined six losses.

New Orleans and Indianapolis each have an adjusted winning percentage of 1.000, but it is interesting to note that the Saints' adjusted record is 29-0 compared to the Colts' 26-0.

The next stat determines how a team is performing against how an average team would perform against its opponents in terms of points scored and points allowed. New Orleans is averaging an impressive 37.9 points a game through its first eight games, but what makes the mark even more outstanding is that their eight opponents are allowing an average of only 22.5 points per game. New Orleans is scoring 15.4 points more per game than an average team would be when faced with the same schedule.

The team with the second-highest differential is Minnesota at 7.4—less than half of New Orleans' differential! New England is tied for third at 5.9 with surprising Baltimore, and perhaps an even bigger surprise—Miami—checks in at No. 5 with a 5.7 differential.

Defensively, the team that has posted the best differential is Indianapolis, which is holding its opponents to 6.9 points per game fewer than their cumulative average. New England checks in at No. 2 on this list at 6.5, followed by Denver (6.2), the New York Jets (5.9), and the Cincinnati Bengals (5.3).

To determine a team's final ranking, I use a formula that takes into account all three factors. After running the numbers, here are this week's Power Rankings.

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