Free NFL Picks: Week 10

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Free NFL Picks: Week 10
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25 years ago the Baltimore Colts skipped town and headed to the bright lights and extravagant city of Indianapolis.

It makes sense. Dump the crab cakes, nights on the Chesapeake and trips to the beach for...uh...um. Yeah, I'm not sure what you do in Indianapolis.

Apparently the only thing to do was lose.

The Colts did it well and they did it often.

In fact the Colts never had a 10-win season between 1984 and 1999. And mixed in with their futility were a mere three playoff appearances.

It was bad. Really, really, really bad.

Even though 1999 marked the Indianapolis Colts’ first 10-win season, the most memorable year was 1998.

The year marked Peyton Manning's rookie campaign and the turnaround for a team that was the laughing stock of the NFL.

After Peyton's rookie season, he led the Colts to nine seasons of 10 wins or more including the current seven-season streak that will push to eight at season's end.

I admit I was not a big Peyton Manning fan. I thought he was the kind of guy who would win a bunch of regular season games, pile up stats and never win a big game.

He proved me wrong and the crow did not taste well.

All of this only confirmed how influential a quarterback can be for a franchise.

Land a stud and you can turn a franchise around. Land a dud and you could set your franchise back a couple of years.

With this in mind I thought I would give a new gambling theory a try.

This week I'm going to pick games with an eight-point spread or less and base the pick on the quarterback matchup. Since eight points signify a one-possession game, it makes sense to allow the quarterback matchups dictate my picks.

After a 3-0 week last week I look to up the 28-24 record:

 

Peyton Manning (-3) vs. Tom Brady

This is the best debate in all of sports.

Brady or Manning?

This is one argument that cannot be won. When it is all said and done these two could be the greatest quarterbacks to ever play in the NFL.

The league is set up for passing offenses and they know how to exploit it.

Ultimately I have to side with Manning because he is playing on his home turf.

Indianapolis 33 - New England 26

 

Matt Ryan (-1.5) @ Jake Delhomme

No one—and I mean no one—can possibly like Jake against Matty Ice.

I don't care where this game is being played. They could play in Afghanistan, in Russia, or in my garage.

There is no way I'm going to take Jake Delhomme in this matchup.

Atlanta 30 - Carolina 24

 

Jason Campbell (+4) vs. Kyle Orton

These two stiffs make bums like Doug Pederson and Sean Salisbury look like hall-of-famers. If you don't know who those two are go look up their stats and enjoy the laugh.

Since this is an even matchup I have to take the points.

Washington 13 - Denver 12

 

Ben Roethlisberger (-7) vs. Carson Palmer

Big Ben has two Super Bowl titles and is starting to pile up some nice stats as well.

Carson Palmer is a stud and I believe he will get his Super Bowl someday. But I have to take Ben here.

There is no way he is going to let his team get swept by a division rival at home on his watch.

Pittsburgh 23 - Cincinnati 13

 

Matt Cassel (+2) @ JaMarcus Russell

Whenever a quarterback's rating looks like your buddy's front-nine scorecard in golf you better not back that signal caller.

Huh? Golf? Football? Where are we?

Focus now.

JaMarcus stinks.

You got it?

Kansas City 23 - Oakland 20

 

Donovan McNabb (+2.5) @ Philip Rivers

The San Diego Chargers are the West Coast version of the Philadelphia Eagles. They pile up regular season wins and then blow it in the playoffs.

Therefore Rivers is the West Coast version of McNabb.

With an even matchup like this, I once again have to take the points.

Philadelphia 32 - San Diego 20

 

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