Pro Comparisons for Every Projected 2018 NBA Draft Lottery Pick
It's always tricky to draw comparisons between high-profile incoming NBA rookies and established veterans. Getting a handle on the former's games is made doubly hard by short track records amassed at various levels of sub-NBA quality.
That's fine; we're just out to establish some sense of whom each lottery-projected rookie resembles.
Maybe they've got one or two skills that call a familiar professional's game to mind. We're not going to see any carbon copies, but if you don't follow the college game, the best way to wrap your head around a prospect is to compare him to a known commodity.
If someone tells you there's a prospect who plays like Bradley Beal, you gather he's a slick shooter with solid size and decent playmaking chops at the 2. Pretty simple, right?
We'll use the latest mock draft from Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman to fill out our list of lottery-projected players.
Luka Doncic (Slovenia, PG/SG, 1999)
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Pro Comparison: Ricky Rubio with a dash of Manu Ginobili
If the clunky comparison above doesn't illustrate the difficulty in describing Luka Doncic, I'm not sure what does.
At 6'8" and 228 pounds, the youngest MVP in Euroleague history has more size than either of his comps, which sort of calls to mind a Hedo Turkoglu type, insofar as that's actually a thing. Doncic's vision is probably his best attribute, but he lacks the downhill athleticism and burst of Ben Simmons.
Comfortable shooting off the dribble, Doncic doesn't yet profile as a high-efficiency scorer, so the Ginobili aspect is more a reflection of shifty ball-handling and highlight-pass flair. Rubio's penchant for distribution and ability to see creative angles show through in Doncic's ball-handling.
The absence of top-end speed and bounce means we can't compare Doncic to more conventional and similarly sized wings. He's not Paul George.
Basically, he's an oversized playmaker with a developing shot and elite court sense. Rubio/Ginobili is as close as we can get for Doncic.
Deandre Ayton (Arizona, C, Freshman)
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Pro Comparison: DeMarcus Cousins
An all-offense star who'll physically overwhelm interior opponents?
Who gets lost occasionally on defense because he's either unfocused or lacking in intensity?
Whose shot projects nicely all the way out to the three-point line?
Who figures to start immediately and punish opposing rebounders on the glass?
Who might, at first, give up just as much on D as he contributes on O?
Deandre Ayton, who averaged 20.1 points and 11.6 rebounds on 61.2 percent shooting at Arizona, has a lot in common with Cousins. If anything, Ayton is probably entering the league with more polished skills. His face-up and post games are highly refined, which makes his athletic advantages almost unfair. As a rookie, Cousins had the bulk to bully defenders immediately; his game involved more bludgeoning than Ayton's is likely to.
Still, if Ayton doesn't smoke Cousins' rookie averages of 14.1 points and 8.6 rebounds on 43 percent shooting, it'll be a shock. He's that ready to put up numbers.
Marvin Bagley III (Duke, PF/C, Freshman)
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Pro Comparison: Amar'e Stoudemire
The quickness, lift and general athletic fluidity in Marvin Bagley III's game don't show up in 6'11" packages often, which narrows our field of possible comps.
Fortunately, we've got a good one in Stoudemire, a devastating roll man who could catch on the move and finish like few others. Bagley's motor might actually rev higher than Stoudemire's, which could result in the rookie outperforming STAT on defense.
That wouldn't take much, as Stoudemire was never known for his play on that end.
Bagley isn't currently a factor on D, but he might be quicker laterally than Stoudemire ever was. That means there's potential for the incoming rookie to fit in today's switch-heavy schemes, which would help offset the fact he's unlikely to become an impactful rim-protector.
Now, if the team that drafts Bagley happens to have the next Steve Nash, we'll really see something special.
Jaren Jackson Jr. (Michigan State, PF/C, Freshman)
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Pro Comparison: Serge Ibaka
To be clear, we're talking about prime Oklahoma City Thunder Serge Ibaka. It'd be a real bummer if a prospect with Jackson's pedigree resembled the Toronto Raptors version.
Jackson might be the safest pick of the 2018 draft, as his two-way abilities mean he's got more paths to success than several other offense-only bigs like Ayton and Bagley. The 39.6 percent accuracy rate from three-point range also distinguishes him from potential frontcourt draftees.
According to the Ringer's Jonathan Tjarks: "Jackson is a new kind of defensive anchor. At 6-foot-11 and 242 pounds, his frame is right in the sweet spot between size and speed. He’s big enough to be a dominant presence inside without sacrificing his ability to guard on the perimeter."
This, plus a dangerous outside shot, is what Ibaka used to provide. And if anything, the kind of defensive dominance and perimeter shooting Jackson possesses have only become more valuable since Ibaka's best days.
Mohamed Bamba (Texas, C, Freshman)
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Pro Comparison: Rudy Gobert
There's no need to overthink this one. Mohamed Bamba registered the largest wingspan (7'10") and highest standing reach (9'7 ½") at the combine this year, establishing himself as the closest physical analog to the Utah Jazz's standout defensive center.
Bamba, who blocked 3.7 shots per game in his lone season at Texas, projects as a top-level rim-protector who figures to deter shooters in the lane from the second he takes the floor.
Even the knocks against the incoming rookie—thin frame, lack of strength, limited offensive capabilities—mirror the negatives ascribed to Gobert early in his career. If Bamba adds bulk and improves his ability to finish on the roll (which Gobert did), there's a chance he becomes an All-NBA defender with just enough offensive juice to make a two-way difference.
When it comes to whispers and short clips revealing a developing three-point shot, a wait-and-see approach is probably best. If Bamba really does offer some stretch when he arrives in the NBA, his potential skyrockets.
Trae Young (Oklahoma, PG, Freshman)
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Pro Comparison: Stephen Curry
You can find some discouraging comparisons out there for Trae Young, the nation's leader in scoring and assists last season at Oklahoma.
Aaron Brooks, Trey Burke, Shabazz Napier—hardly the level of talent teams are hoping for in the lottery. While Young's lack of size, suspect defense and sub-elite shooting efficiency (especially in the second half of his freshman season) make him a good fit alongside those uninspiring names, his approach is all Curry.
Nobody's saying Young will match Curry's productivity. He'll be lucky to make an All-Star game, let alone win the MVP twice. But deep bombs off the dribble, otherworldly confidence and excellent passing vision make the stylistic parallel work.
If Young can survive the physical onslaught of bigger and stronger defenders, he'll stretch defenses with his shooting and should enjoy more success with teammates around him who'll actually finish his setups.
Mikal Bridges (Villanova, SF, Junior)
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Pro Comparison: Tony Snell
Optimists out there will cite Robert Covington and Otto Porter as the best representations of what Mikal Bridges will bring to the NBA, but because of the Villanova wing's age and limitations, it's best to temper that enthusiasm.
Bridges is a three-year collegian who'll be 22 years old when training camp starts, which means projecting major growth from him might be a mistake.
The three-point shooting and defensive versatility are the sources of the Porter-Covington comparison, but Bridges had a tendency to fade into the background occasionally. That's Snell's specialty.
Beyond that, Bridges shares Snell's length, slight frame and lack of offensive shot-creation. He'll knock down an open look (43.5 percent from deep in 2017-18), but like Snell, he can't do much with the ball if a defender runs him off the line.
As a two-way role-filler who hits shots and defends ably, Bridges will have NBA value. But he's missing top-notch athleticism and can't be counted on to create his own scoring chances.
Michael Porter Jr. (Missouri, SF/PF, Freshman)
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Pro Comparison: Bigger Andrew Wiggins
The best approach here might have been scrapping the comparison for Michael Porter Jr. altogether. With only 53 minutes of collegiate action on his resume, there's just not enough information to confidently say what kind of player he'll be—and that's if he's healthy enough to reach his potential after back surgery last year.
Wiggins—who has obvious talent, athleticism and scoring ability but poor feel and questionable mental engagement—feels right. Porter stands a shade over 6'10", which gives him an important two inches on Wiggins. Ideally, the rookie will spend time as a mismatch 4, which isn't something Wiggins is capable of. Porter might be a better shooter than Wiggins right now, but both share a troubling fondness for pull-up jumpers when more efficient shots are available.
If Porter develops his handle and ditches his tendency to grind possessions to a halt (like Wiggins!) while sizing up his defender in triple-threat position, he projects as a dynamic scoring threat with excellent size. There's a reason he was regarded as either the first- or second-best high school prospect in his class.
But then, Wiggins was viewed similarly.
Miles Bridges (Michigan State, SF/PF, Sophomore)
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Pro Comparison: Jae Crowder
The two-foot takeoffs and Michigan State jersey make you think Jason Richardson, but Miles Bridges is a tweener forward where J-Rich was a pure shooting guard throughout his career.
Maybe that's just a statement on how positional demands have changed, but it also indicates some of the limitations that mark Bridges' game.
Chances are, Bridges will spend a lot of time as an undersized 4 (he measured 6'6 ¾" in shoes) in the pros, where his physical toughness will help him compete against bigger opponents. Limited as a passer and creator, Bridges will likely get most of his points on spot-ups, attacking closeouts or in the open floor.
Don't expect him to hand out assists routinely—or even make quick, decisive passes to keep the offense flowing. In that sense, he's much more of a play-finisher than a play-starter. Though Crowder has never touched Bridges' athleticism, a career as an in-between forward with good toughness and a dangerous enough outside shot feels like a good one for Bridges to aim for.
If you're rosier on Bridges' offensive outlook, Tobias Harris is another favorable comparison.
Lonnie Walker IV (Miami, SG, Freshman)
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Pro Comparison: Victor Oladipo
Lonnie Walker IV is nowhere near the ball-handler Oladipo is today, but it's important to remember that the Indiana Pacers star didn't come into the league as much of a dribbler. He was a terrific athlete with defensive potential, a strong work ethic and a shot that portended consistent three-point accuracy.
With growth in the right areas, Oladipo had a chance to become, well...what he is now: a lead combo guard whose speed, springs and shot make him an All-NBA talent.
That's Walker's upside, and the 19-year-old is already thinking big, telling Alex Kennedy of Hoop Hype: "I feel that I can be a franchise player. I feel that I have what it takes, whether it's offensively or defensively. I can score with the best of them and I can guard the best players in my respective area."
One of the best raw athletes at the combine, Walker posted a 40" standing vertical leap, which ranked fourth among attendees. His shuttle run time of 2.91 seconds was third overall. At 34.6 percent from deep, Walker's accuracy rate in college was disappointing—especially in light of his stellar mechanics. Expect that figure to be his floor as a professional.
Asking Walker to become the best player on a postseason team feels unreasonable. But his tools aren't so different from Oladipo's, and that's exactly what the five-year vet became this season.
Wendell Carter Jr. (Duke, PF/C, Freshman)
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Pro Comparison: Kevin Love
Everybody loves the Al Horford comparison, and it's apt. Wendell Carter Jr. shares Horford's complete floor game, shooting and non-elite athleticism. But what about Kevin Love?
Love, like Carter, has great feet, better hands and a terrific capacity for making the right choice between attacking his man and setting up a teammate. Though his role alongside LeBron James has lately reduced Love to a catch-and-shoot weapon (Carter shot 41.3 percent from deep in college, for what it's worth), it wasn't so long ago that Love ran offenses himself from the elbow.
Carter could do that, too.
If there's a concern with Carter's solid-but-unspectacular game, it's probably his occasional struggle to defend in space. He moves well for a player his size (6'10", 251 pounds) but may not hold up on switches against most guards.
Sounds a lot like Love.
Collin Sexton (Alabama, PG/SG, Freshman)
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Pro Comparison: Eric Bledsoe
You don't earn the nickname "Young Bull" if you're timid, and Collin Sexton's nonstop competitive motor makes the Eric Bledsoe comparison an easy one.
Don't let Bledsoe's disjointed postseason effort cloud your mind. When he came into the league, Bledsoe was an all-effort player, a hyper-athletic pest who zipped around on defense and attacked relentlessly on the other end.
Sexton, like Bledsoe, is more of a "lead" guard than a point guard. Both can run an offense, but as Sexton's 3.6 assists per game at Alabama indicate, the ideal situation would include a playmaking teammate at another position. Scoring shouldn't be an issue; Sexton averaged 19.2 points per game and famously kept his team in a contest that devolved into a three-on-five affair for the final 10 minutes against Minnesota.
With the ability to finish in traffic off either foot and a willingness to throw his body into harm's way, Sexton figures to draw loads of shooting fouls in a more spaced-out NBA environment. Even with nine other bodies crammed into the paint in college, he still found crevices to slither into around the bucket. That led to 7.6 free-throw attempts per game.
Sexton is going to scrap, attack and overwhelm less locked-in opponents with sheer force of will. The skills, while considerable, will have to catch up.
Robert Williams (Texas A&M, C, Sophomore)
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Pro Comparison: DeAndre Jordan
Like Jordan, Robert Williams is a lob-catching menace in the middle—gifted with extreme bounce that simply doesn't belong in a 6'10" frame. Limited offensively to the paint, Williams is also a Jordan-level free-throw shooter. He hit 54.1 percent of his freebies in two seasons at Texas A&M, actually dipping to 47.1 percent in his second year.
The key difference may be on defense, where Williams' quick rotations and brutalist shot-blocking make him the transformative force Jordan is purported to be.
DJ's reputation has always been inflated on that end, bolstered by gaudy rebounding totals and highlight blocks. Williams, quicker and mobile on switches, profiles as a more impactful defender. We're still trafficking in potential on that end with Williams; it's possible he never reaches Jordan's level of adequacy.
But the physical profile is there, and Williams is a prime candidate to look better in the pros than college, where space was at a premium and he struggled to find consistent opportunities as a roll man.
Kevin Knox II (Kentucky, SF, Freshman)
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Pro Comparison: Kelly Oubre, Jr.
Exceptionally raw, Kevin Knox II won't turn 19 until August. Of everyone we've covered, Knox and his blank canvas of a game might be hardest to evaluate.
He led the Wildcats in scoring as a freshman, logging 15.6 points per game as a slasher, cutter and serviceable (34.1 percent) shooter from long range. His 6'9" length gives him the opportunity to shoot over most wings, while his quickness makes him a tough cover for bulkier forwards.
Knox was underwhelming as a collegiate defender, rarely in a stance and slow to react. Projecting him on that end is entirely a tools-based exercise. He didn't show anything that screamed "stopper" at Kentucky.
Kelly Oubre Jr. entered the NBA with rough edges, comparable size and a similarly intriguing profile. It took the Washington Wizards forward until his third season to break out, but the wait was worth it. After putting up 11.8 points and showing glimpses of a future as an undersized, scoring 4, Oubre Jr. is on track to be a quality starter for years to come.
Knox can get there, too. But like Oubre, he'll have to put more attention into his defensive approach and avoid trying to do too much on offense against better defenders in the NBA.
Stats courtesy of Basketball Reference, Cleaning the Glass or NBA.com unless otherwise specified.
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